Climate change uncertainty in environmental flows for the Mekong River

Abstract

A MIKE SHE model of the Mekong, calibrated and validated for 12 gauging stations, is used to simulate climate change scenarios associated with a 2°C increase in global mean temperature projected by seven general circulation models (GCMs). Impacts of each scenario on the river ecosystem and, hence, uncertainty associated with different GCMs are assessed through an environmental flow method based on the range of variability approach. Ecologically relevant hydrological indicators are evaluated for the baseline and each scenario. Baseline-to-scenario change is assessed against thresholds that define likely risk of ecological impact. They are aggregated into single scores for high and low flows. The results demonstrate considerable inter-GCM differences in risk of change. Uncertainty is larger for low flows, with some GCMs projecting high and medium risk at the majority of locations, and others suggesting widespread no or low risk. Inter-GCM differences occur along the main Mekong, as well as within major tributaries.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Thompson, J.R., Laizé, C.L.R., Green, A.J., Acreman, M.C., and Kingston, D.G., 2014. Climate change uncertainty in environmental flows for the Mekong River. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 935–954.     

Spatio-temporal assessment of perfluorinated compounds in the Brisbane River system,Australia: Impact of a major flood event

Perfluorinated chemicals including PFOA and PFOS have been widely used in consumer products and have become ubiquitous pollutants widely distributed in the aqueous environment. Following a major flood event in 2011, water samples were collected along a spatial gradient of the Brisbane River system to provide an initial estimate of the release of PFASs from flooded urban areas. PFOA (mean concentrations 0.13–6.1 ng L⁻¹) and PFOS (mean concentrations 0.18–15 ng L⁻¹) were the most frequently detected and abundant PFASs. Mean total PFASs concentrations increased from 0.83 ng L⁻¹ at the upstream Wivenhoe Dam to 40 ng L⁻¹ at Oxley Creek, representing an urban catchment. Total masses of PFOA and PFOS delivered into Moreton Bay from January to March were estimated to be 5.6 kg and 12 kg respectively. From this study, urban floodwaters appear to be a previously overlooked source of PFASs into the surrounding environment.     

14,000 Years of Sediment, Vegetation, and Water-Level Changes at the Makepeace Cedar Swamp, Southeastern Massachusetts

Data from a transect of four cores collected in the Makepeace Cedar Swamp, near Carver, Massachusetts, record past changes in deposition, vegetation, and water level. Time series of palynological data provide a 14,000-yr record of regional and local vegetation development, a means for biostratigraphic correlation and dating, and information about changes in water level. Differences in records among cores in the basin show that water level decreased at least 1.5 m between 10,800 and 9700 cal yr B.P., after which sediment accumulation was slow and intermittent across the basin for about 1700 yr. Between 8000 and 5600 cal yr B.P., water level rose 2.0 m, after which slow peat accumulation indicates a low stand about the time of the hemlock decline at 5300 ± 200 cal yr B.P. Dry conditions may have continued after this time, but by 3200 cal yr B.P., the onset of peat accumulation in shallow cores indicates that water level had risen to close to its highest postglacial level, where it is today. Peat has accumulated across the whole basin since 3200 cal yr B.P. Data from Makepeace and the Pequot Cedar Swamp, near Ledyard, Connecticut, indicate an early Holocene dry interval in southern New England that began 11,500 yr ago near the end of the Younger Dryas interval. The dry conditions prevailed between 10,800 and 8000 cal yr B.P. and coincide with the arrival and later rise to dominance of white pine trees (Pinus strobus) both regionally and near the basins. Our results indicate a climatic cause for the “pine period” in New England.     

Helioseismic search for magnetic field in the solar interior

The observed splittings of solar oscillation frequencies can be utilized to study possible large-scale magnetic fields present in the solar interior. Using the GONG data on frequency splittings an attempt is made to infer the strength of magnetic fields inside the Sun.     

Defining the floodplain in hydrologically‐variable settings: implications for flood risk management

Flood risk management is an essential responsibility of state governments and local councils to ensure the protection of people residing on floodplains. Globally, floodplains are under increasing pressure from growing populations. Typically, the engineering‐type solutions that are used to predict local flood magnitude and frequency based on limited gauging data are inadequate, especially in settings which experience high hydrological variability. This study highlights the importance of incorporating geomorphological understanding into flood risk management in southeast Queensland (SEQ), an area badly affected by extreme flood events in 2011 and 2013. The major aim of this study is to outline the hydrological and sedimentological characteristics of various ‘inundation surfaces’ that are typical of catchments in the sub‐tropics. It identifies four major inundation surfaces; within‐channel bench [Q ~ 2.33 yr average recurrence interval (ARI)]; genetic floodplain (Q = 20 yr ARI); hydraulic floodplain (20 yr < Q ≤ 200 yr ARI) and terrace (Q > 1000 yr ARI). These surfaces are considered typical of inundation areas within, and adjacent to, the large macrochannels common to this region and others of similar hydrological variability. An additional area within genetic floodplains was identified where flood surfaces coalesce and produce an abrupt reduction in channel capacity. This is referred to here as a Spill‐out Zone (SOZ). The associated vulnerability and risk of these surfaces is reviewed and recommendations made based on incorporating this geomorphological understanding into flood risk assessments. These recommendations recognize the importance to manage for risks associated with flow inundation and sediment erosion, delivery and deposition. The increasing availability of high resolution topographic data opens up the possibility of more rapid and spatially extensive assessments of key geomorphic processes which can readily be used to predict flood risk. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of biohydrodynamic interaction within mangrove and saltmarsh boundaries

Mangrove forests and saltmarshes are recognized for their roles in wave and current attenuation, although a comparison of in situ observations between woody and herbaceous plants is needed in order to understand the different mechanisms of bio‐physical interaction within coastal wetlands. The aim of our study was to compare the mechanisms of flow reduction and energy dissipation by mangrove trees and saltmarsh grass in a subtropical area where tidal currents dominate. Fieldwork was conducted to measure the hydrodynamic processes occurring at the boundaries between a bare mudflat and vegetated tidal flat, as the flow transitions from a bare mudflat to either mangrove or saltmarsh. Synchronous acoustic Doppler velocimetry (ADV) measurements at three sites revealed that the mangrove was more effective than the saltmarsh grass at flow reduction. In addition, a considerable rotation in flow direction was observed as the flow entered the mangrove trees, while rotation was considerably less pronounced within the saltmarsh edge. The mechanism for this difference was explained through a combination of changes in drag force and eddy viscosity over the two vegetation types. Although overall the mangrove was observed to dissipate energy more effectively than the saltmarsh, the relative efficiency of the vegetation at dissipating turbulent energy was found to vary with the maximum water level of tidal cycle. When the maximum water level remained below the mangrove canopy bottom (‘bio‐line’), the energy dissipation ability of the mangrove was relatively low, as a result of the presence of rigid, sparse trunks rather than denser saltmarsh grass found near the bed; when the maximum water level was sufficiently high to reach the mangrove canopy, the ability of the mangrove to dissipate energy was significantly increased, becoming more effective than the saltmarsh grass. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coronal X-ray enhancements associated with Hα filament disappearances

A survey of soft X-ray images from Skylab has revealed a class of large-scale transient X-ray enhancements in the lower corona which are typically associated with the disappearance of H filaments away from active regions. Contemporary with the H filament disappearance, X-ray emitting structures appeared at or near the filament location with shape and size resembling the filament. Eventually these structures faded, but the filament cavity was no longer obvious. Typically the peak of the X-ray event lagged the end of the filament disappearance by tens of minutes. The durations of the coronal X-ray enhancements were considerably longer than the associated H filament disappearances. Major flare effects, such as chromospheric brightenings, typically were not associated with these X-ray events.One event analyzed quantitatively had a peak temperature between 1.8 and 2.7 × 10⁶ K, achieved a peak density of 10⁹ cm^–3 and resulted in an enhancement in the plasma pressure over the conditions of the preexisting coronal cavity of at least a factor of 7. The mass of the coronal X-ray emitting material was about 10% that of the preexisting filament and the thermal energy of the coronal event was on the order of 10²⁹ erg, about 10% of the mechanical energy of the H filament eruption. The event appeared to cool by radiative losses and not by thermal conduction. It is likely that the coronal enhancements are caused by heating of an excess of previously cooler material, either from the filament itself, or by compression of coronal material by a changing magnetic field.     

Development of waves under explosive cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific

The development of ocean waves under explosive cyclones (ECs) is investigated in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean using a hindcast wave simulation around Japan during the period 1994 through 2014. A composite analysis of the ocean wave fields under ECs is used to investigate how the spatial patterns of the spectral wave parameters develop over time. Using dual criteria of a drop in sea level pressure below 980 hPa at the center of a cyclone and a decrease of at least 12 hPa over a 12-h period, ECs are identified in atmospheric reanalysis data. Two areas under an EC were identified with narrow directional spectra: the cold side of a warm front and the right-hand side of an EC (relative to the propagating direction). Because ECs are associated with atmospheric fronts, ocean waves develop very differently under ECs than they do under tropical cyclones. Moreover, ECs evolve very rapidly such that the development of the ocean wave field lags behind the peak wind speed by hours. In a case study of an EC that occurred in January 2013, the wave spectrum indicates that a warm front played a critical role in generating distinct ocean wave systems in the warm and cold zones along the warm front. Both the warm and cold zones have narrow directional and frequency spectra. In contrast, the ocean wave field in the third quadrant (rear left area relative to the propagation direction) of the EC is composed of swell and wind sea systems propagating in different directions.     

Predictability of storm wave heights in the ice-free Beaufort Sea

A predictability study on wave forecast of the Arctic Ocean is necessary to help identify hazardous areas and ensure sustainable shipping along the trans-Arctic routes. To assist with validation of the Arctic Ocean wave model, two drifting wave buoys were deployed off Point Barrow, Alaska for two months in September 2016. Both buoys measured significant wave heights exceeding 4 m during two different storm events on 19 September and 22 October. The NOAA-WAVEWATCH III^? model with 16-km resolution was forced using wind and sea ice reanalysis data and obtained general agreement with the observation. The September storm was reproduced well; however, model accuracy deteriorated in October with a negative wave height bias of around 1 m during the October storm. Utilising reanalysis data, including the most up-to-date ERA5, this study investigated the cause: grid resolution, wind and ice forcing, and in situ sea level pressure observations assimilated for reanalysis. The analysis has found that there is a 20% reduction of in situ SLP observations in the area of interest, presumably due to fewer ships and deployment options during the sea ice advance period. The 63-member atmospheric ensemble reanalysis, ALERA2, has shown that this led to a larger ensemble spread in the October monthly mean wind field compared to September. Since atmospheric physics is complex during sea ice advance, it is speculated that the elevated uncertainty of synoptic-scale wind caused the negative wave model bias. This has implications for wave hindcasts and forecasts in the Arctic Ocean.     

Future river flows and flood extent in the Upper Niger and Inner Niger Delta: GCM-related uncertainty using the CMIP5 ensemble

A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of sub-catchment–GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from ?6136 km² (?43%) to +987 km² (+7%) for the 2050s and ?6176 km² (?43%) to +1165 km² (+8.2%) for the 2080s.