Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.     

A new record of Colpocoryphe (Trilobita) from the Skiddaw Group of the Cross Fell inlier,northern England

The trilobite Colpocoryphe sp. is described for the first time from the Kirkland Formation, Llanvirn, of the Skiddaw Group in the Cross Fell inlier. It is considered to be closely related to a form previously recorded from the upper Arenig of the Lake District. This new record supports the previously suggested Gondwanan aspects of the northern England Avalonian fauna during the early Ordovician. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The composition of nutrient fluxes from contrasting UK river basins

Accurate estimates of N and P loads were obtained for four contrasting UK river basins over a complete annual cycle. The fractionation of these loads into dissolved and particulate, and inorganic and organic components allowed a detailed examination of the nutrient load composition and of the factors influencing both the relative and absolute magnitude of these components. The particulate phosphorus (TPP) loads account for 26–75% of the annual total phosphorus (TP) transport and are predominantly inorganic. The inorganic (PIP) and organic (POP) fractions of the TPP loads represent 20–47% and 6–28% of the annual TP transport, respectively. In contrast, the particulate nitrogen loads (TPN) represent 8% or less of the annual total nitrogen (TN) loads and are predominately organic. For dissolved P transport, the dissolved inorganic fraction (DIP) is more important, representing 15–70% of the TP loads, whereas the dissolved organic fraction (DOP) represents only 3–9% of the TP loads. The TN loads are dominated by the dissolved component and more particularly the total oxidized fraction (TON), which is composed of nitrate and nitrite and represents 76–82% of the annual TN transport. The remaining dissolved N species, ammonium (NH₄-N) and organic N (DON) account for 0·3–1·2% and 13–16% of the annual TN transport, respectively. The TPN and TPP fluxes closely reflect the suspended sediment dynamics of the study basins, which are in turn controlled by basin size and morphology. The dissolved inorganic nutrient fluxes are influenced by point source inputs to the study basins, especially for P, although the TON flux is primarily influenced by diffuse source contributions and the hydrological connectivity between the river and its catchment area. The dissolved organic fractions are closely related to the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics, which are in turn influenced by land use and basin size. The magnitude of the NH₄-N fraction was dependent on the proximity of the monitoring station to point source discharges, because of rapid nitrification within the water column. However, during storm events, desorption from suspended sediment may be temporarily important. Both the magnitude and relative contribution of the different nutrient fractions exhibit significant seasonal variability in response to the hydrological regime, sediment mobilization, the degree of dilution of point source inputs and biological processes. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of the four-wave quasi-resonance on freak wave shapes in the ocean

Ocean Dynamics - Two freak waves were observed a day apart in October 2009 at a 5000-m deep moored station in the northwest Pacific Ocean. As the typhoon passed by, the wave system transitioned...     

Long-term trends in cetacean occurrence during the annual sardine run off the Wild Coast,South Africa

During the austral winter, cetaceans and other apex predators follow the annual northeastward movement of shoaling sardines, known as the sardine run, along the southeast coast of South Africa, including a 400-km stretch called the Wild Coast. In total, 131 opportunistic aerial surveys were conducted between May and July, from 1996 to 2014, to monitor sardine movement. Cetacean-sighting data from these surveys were analysed, focusing on long-term trends in frequencies of the cetaceans. In total, 630 sightings involving five cetacean species were recorded: 268 (approximately 32 400 individuals) of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin Tursiops aduncus, 108 (approximately 79 400 individuals) of long-beaked common dolphin Delphinus capensis, 242 (approximately 670 individuals) of humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae, 1 (two individuals) of southern right whale Eubalaena australis, and 11 (16 individuals) of Bryde’s whale Balaenoptera edeni. The occurrence of common dolphins, typically associated with sardines, decreased significantly in average group size over the study period (p = 0.0343); bottlenose dolphins, considered generalist feeders, demonstrated no such trend (p = 0.916). Humpback whales were most frequently sighted between 2010 and 2014, and with significantly larger groups observed towards the end of the study period (p = 0.0121). For all these species, more sightings were made inside than outside of marine protected areas (>70% of the dolphin species, and >65% of the humpback whales), both pre- and post-2005 (from 2005 the size of the survey area increased). The results indicate that movements of the common dolphin may be employed as a proxy for sardine occurrence. Long-term trends evident in the data also demonstrate the importance of this coastal region for bottlenose dolphins as well as use as a migratory corridor for humpback whales.     

Evidence of Self‐Organized Criticality in riverbank mass failures: a matter of perspective?

A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical Modeling of Ice Fog in Interior Alaska Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

An ice microphysics parameterization scheme has been modified to better describe and understand ice fog formation. The modeling effort is based on observations in the Sub-Arctic Region of Interior Alaska, where ice fog occurs frequently during the cold season due to abundant water vapor sources and strong inversions existing near the surface at extremely low air temperatures. The microphysical characteristics of ice fog are different from those of other ice clouds, implying that the microphysical processes of ice should be changed in order to generate ice fog particles. Ice fog microphysical characteristics were derived with the NCAR Video Ice Particle Sampler during strong ice fog cases in the vicinity of Fairbanks, Alaska, in January and February 2012. To improve the prediction of ice fog in the Weather Research and Forecasting model, observational data were used to change particle size distribution properties and gravitational settling rates, as well as to implement a homogeneous freezing process. The newly implemented homogeneous freezing process compliments the existing heterogeneous freezing scheme and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals than the original Thompson scheme. The size distribution of ice crystals is changed into a Gamma distribution with the shape factor of 2.0, using the observed size distribution. Furthermore, gravitational settling rates are reduced for the ice crystals since the crystals in ice fog do not precipitate in a similar manner when compared to the ice crystals of cirrus clouds. The slow terminal velocity plays a role in increasing the time scale for the ice crystals to settle to the surface. Sensitivity tests contribute to understanding the effects of water vapor emissions as an anthropogenic source on the formation of ice fog.     

Estimating ventilation time scales using overturning stream functions

A simple method for estimating ventilation time scales from overturning stream functions is proposed. The stream function may be computed using either geometric coordinates or a generalized vertical coordinate, such as potential density (salinity in our study). The method is tested with a three-dimensional circulation model describing an idealized semi-enclosed ocean basin ventilated through a narrow strait over a sill, and the result is compared to age estimates obtained from a passive numerical age tracer. The best result is obtained when using the stream function in salinity coordinates. In this case, the reservoir-averaged advection time obtained from the overturning stream function in salinity coordinates agrees rather well with the mean age of the age tracer, and the corresponding maximum ages agree very well.     

Acheulean artifact accumulation and early hominin land use,Garden Route Casino Road,Pinnacle Point,South Africa

An Early Stone Age Acheulean lithic assemblage collected along a 1.5‐km transect at the Garden Route Casino near Pinnacle Point, Mossel Bay, South Africa, was examined in order to assess the relative degree to which assemblage variability is impacted by post‐occupational processes and/or terrain. It was found that post‐occupational variables do vary across the study area, and they affect the positions of artifacts to different degrees. Terrain structure was determined to have minimal effect on artifact movement. Three analysis sections were identified as having artifacts that were likely close to their original positions and compositions. Future interpretations of differential land use can now be tempered with considerations of the post‐occupational processes that formed the recovered assemblage. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Global Context of Solar Activity During the Whole Heliosphere Interval Campaign

The Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI) was an international observing and modeling effort to characterize the 3-D interconnected ??heliophysical?? system during this solar minimum, centered on Carrington Rotation 2068, March 20??C?April 16, 2008. During the latter half of the WHI period, the Sun presented a sunspot-free, deep solar minimum type face. But during the first half of CR 2068 three solar active regions flanked by two opposite-polarity, low-latitude coronal holes were present. These departures from the quiet Sun led to both eruptive activity and solar wind structure. Most of the eruptive activity, i.e., flares, filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this first, active half of the interval. We determined the source locations of the CMEs and the type of associated region, such as active region, or quiet sun or active region prominence. To analyze the evolution of the events in the context of the global solar magnetic field and its evolution during the three rotations centered on CR 2068, we plotted the CME source locations onto synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field, of the magnetic and chromospheric structure, of the white light corona, and of helioseismological subsurface flows. Most of the CME sources were associated with the three dominant active regions on CR 2068, particularly AR 10989. Most of the other sources on all three CRs appear to have been associated with either isolated filaments or filaments in the north polar crown filament channel. Although calculations of the flux balance and helicity of the surface magnetic features did not clearly identify a dominance of one region over the others, helioseismological subsurface flows beneath these active regions did reveal a pronounced difference among them. These preliminary results suggest that the ??twistedness?? (i.e., vorticity and helicity) of subsurface flows and its temporal variation might be related to the CME productivity of active regions, similar to the relationship between flares and subsurface flows.