An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land–sea warming ratio in climate models

A land–sea surface warming ratio (or φ) that exceeds unity is a robust feature of both observed and modelled climate change. Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for φ, it remains almost time-invariant for a wide range of twenty-first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century. Here, we present an explanation for time-invariant land–sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity. Projected temperature changes over this century are too small to breach the latter two conditions. Hence, the mechanism appears to show why both twenty-first century and time-invariant CO₂ forcing lead to similar values of φ in climate models despite the presence of transient ocean heat uptake, whereas twentieth century forcing—which has a significant spatially confined anthropogenic tropospheric aerosol component that breaches the first condition—leads to modelled values of φ that vary widely amongst models and in time. Our results suggest an explanation for the behaviour of φ when climate is forced by other regionally confined forcing scenarios such as geo-engineered changes to oceanic clouds. Our results show how land–sea contrasts in surface and boundary layer characteristics act in tandem to produce the land–sea surface warming contrast.     

An Ensemble Study of a January 2010 Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): Connecting a Non-obvious Solar Source with Its ICME/Magnetic Cloud

A distinct magnetic cloud (MC) was observed in-situ at the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO)-B on 20?–?21 January 2010. About three days earlier, on 17 January, a bright flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) were clearly observed by STEREO-B, which suggests that this was the progenitor of the MC. However, the in-situ speed of the event, several earlier weaker events, heliospheric imaging, and a longitude mismatch with the STEREO-B spacecraft made this interpretation unlikely. We searched for other possible solar eruptions that could have caused the MC and found a faint filament eruption and the associated CME on 14?–?15 January as the likely solar source event. We were able to confirm this source by using coronal imaging from the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/EUVI and COR and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronograph (LASCO) telescopes and heliospheric imaging from the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) and the STEREO/Heliospheric Imager instruments. We use several empirical models to understand the three-dimensional geometry and propagation of the CME, analyze the in-situ characteristics of the associated ICME, and investigate the characteristics of the MC by comparing four independent flux-rope model fits with the launch observations and magnetic-field orientations. The geometry and orientations of the CME from the heliospheric-density reconstructions and the in-situ modeling are remarkably consistent. Lastly, this event demonstrates that a careful analysis of all aspects of the development and evolution of a CME is necessary to correctly identify the solar counterpart of an ICME/MC.     

Hydrologic,geomorphic and climatic processes controlling willow establishment in a montane ecosystem

Willow communities dominate mid‐elevation riparian areas throughout the Rocky Mountains of North America. However, many willow stands are rapidly declining in aerial cover and individual plants in stature. A poor understanding of the processes that control willow establishment hinders identifying the causes of this decline. We analysed the processes that have facilitated or limited willow establishment over the last half of the 20th century on two large floodplains in Rocky Mountain National Park in Colorado by addressing two questions: (1) How does hydrologic regime control willow establishment on different fluvial landforms? (2) How might climate‐driven variations in hydrologic regime affect future willow establishment? We precisely aged willows on the three most common fluvial landforms, stream point bars, drained beaver ponds, and abandoned channels, and statistically related establishment dates to patterns of annual stream peak flow. The role of peak flow on willow establishment varied significantly by landform. Willow recruitment had occurred nearly every year on point bars. In former beaver complexes, most willows had established following dam breaches, whereas willows had established on abandoned channels for several years following channel avulsion. Establishment on point bars and abandoned channels was driven by peak flows of 2‐ to 5‐year return intervals, whereas in abandoned beaver ponds most establishment was associated with flow events of >5‐year return interval. Models of climate change suggest that temperatures will increase and precipitation seasonality will shift over the coming decades in the Rocky Mountains, leading to earlier spring runoff, lower summer and fall flows, decreased snowpack and decreased soil moisture. Such changes are likely to diminish opportunities for willow establishment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organized Subsurface Flows near Active Regions

Local helioseismic techniques, such as ring analysis and time-distance helioseismology, have already shown that large-scale flows near the surface converge towards major active regions. Ring analysis has further demonstrated that at greater depths some active regions exhibit strong outflows. A critique leveled at the ring-analysis results is that the Regularized Least Squares (RLS) inversion kernels on which they are based have negative sidelobes near the surface. Such sidelobes could result in a surface inflow being misidentified as a diverging outflow at depth. In this paper we show that the Optimally Located Averages (OLA) inversion technique, which produces kernels without significant sidelobes, generates flows markedly similar to the RLS results. Active regions are universally zones of convergence near the surface, while large complexes evince strong outflows deeper down.     

Blocky craters: Implications about the lunar megaregolith

Radar, infrared, and photogeologic properties of lunar craters have been studied to determine whether there is a systematic difference in blocky craters between the maria and terrae and whether this difference may be due to a deep megaregolith of pulverized material forming the terra surface, as opposed to a layer of semi-coherent basalt flows forming the mare surface. Some 1310 craters from about 4 to 100 km diameter have been catalogued as radar and/or infrared anomalies. In addition, a study of Apollo Orbital Photography confirmed that the radar and infrared anomalies are correlated with blocky rubble around the crater.Analysis of the radar and infrared data indicated systematic terra—mare differences. Fresh terra craters smaller than 12 km were less likely to be infrared and radar anomalies than comparable mare craters: but terra and mare craters larger than 12 km had similar infrared and radar signatures. Also, there are many terra craters which are radar bright but not infrared anomalies.Our interpretation of these data is that while the maria are rock layers (basaltic flow units) where craters eject boulder fields, the terrae are covered by relatively pulverized megaregolith at least 2 km deep, where craters eject less rocky rubble. Blocky rubble, either in the form of actual rocks or partly consolidated blocks, contributes to the radar and infrared signatures of the crater. However, aging by impacts rapidly destroys these effects, possibly through burial by secondary debris or by disintegration of the blocks themselves, especially in terra regions.PSI Contribution No. 110.     

An investigation of some large directional discontinuities in the solar wind plasma using multisatellite observations

Eleven large directional discontinuities in the solar wind, simultaneously observed by Explorers 33, 35 and Heos 1 in the period Dec. 1968 to Jan. 1969, have been studied by the triangulation method. Testing the discontinuity normals deduced from the wind speed and timing parameters against those given by the magnetometer observations on different models suggests that 8 were tangential, 2 were rotational while 1 could not be identified. 3 small tangential discontinuities arriving within a period 35 min were also studied and as a result it is suggested that the solar wind remained stratified in separation planes over a distance 0.01 AU during that time. The implication of these results is briefly discussed.     

Testing the effects of ocean heat transport on climate

An atmospheric general circulation model is run with boundary conditions representing different amounts of equator-to-pole oceanic heat transport. Oceanic heat transport underneath sea ice is held fixed, minimizing positive feedbacks due to sea ice and thereby providing a lower bound on the effects of oceanic heat transport on climate. When oceanic heat transport is reduced, some compensating increases in atmospheric heat transport occur, but tropical surface temperatures increase and atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns undergo significant changes. We conclude that the ability of the oceans to generate past and future climatic changes through transport of heat is substantial, even though it is limited by a tendency of the atmosphere to partly compensate for changes in oceanic heat transport.