Monitoring overburden layer changes and fault movements from time-lapse seismic data on the Valhall Field

A method developed by Røste et al. , which discriminates between layer thickness and velocity changes, is tested on pre-stack time-lapse seismic ocean bottom cable (OBC) data from the Valhall Field. A key parameter in this discrimination process is the dilation factor, α, which is the relative velocity change divided by the relative thickness change within a given layer. The high quality and good repeatability of the OBC data enables us to estimate α with a reasonable accuracy for α-values between 0 and −5. For α-values below −5, complementary information, like for instance geomechanics is required. For the top reservoir horizon we estimate a maximum subsidence of 0.50 m ± 0.29 m and a corresponding velocity decrease for the sequence from the seabed to the top reservoir of 2.0 m s⁻¹± 0.40 m s⁻¹.
Time-lapse distortion patterns with characteristic time-shift versus offset signatures are observed. The positions and vertical extents of the distortion zones are determined from ray path considerations and modelling. The distortion zones correlate with buried faults, indicating that a (time-lapse) distortion zone might be produced by a localized slip in a fault zone. We present an extended method which allows for vertical (in addition to lateral) variations in the relative thickness and velocity changes. This method can be viewed as a simplified version of time-lapse tomography, but involving fewer unknown parameters, giving more stability to the estimated changes in thickness and velocity. Using this technique, we are able to estimate α for positions with localized time-lapse distortions.     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

A multi‐method approach to dating the burial and skeleton of Kiacatoo Man,New South Wales,Australia

Kiacatoo Man, a large, rugged Aboriginal adult buried in the Lachlan riverine plains of southeastern Australia, was discovered in 2011. Laser‐ablation uranium series analysis on bone yielded a minimum age for the burial of 27.4 ± 0.4 ka (2σ). Single‐grain, optically stimulated luminescence ages on quartz sediment in which the grave had been dug gave a weighted mean age of 26.4 ± 1.5 ka (1σ). Luminescence samples from the grave infill and from sediment beneath the grave exhibit overdispersed dose distributions consistent with bioturbation or other disturbance, which has obscured the burial signal. The overlap between the minimum (U‐series) and maximum (luminescence) ages places the burial between 27.0 and 29.4 ka (2σ). Luminescence ages obtained from the channel belt of between 28 ± 2 and 25 ± 3 ka indicate that fluvial sedimentation was occurring before the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the broader geomorphic setting. Together, these results are internally and regionally consistent, and indicate that Kiacatoo Man was one of the more ancient individuals so far identified in Australia. His remains are important to our understanding of patterns of biological variation and other processes that have shaped people in the Murray‐Darling Basin through time. Copyright © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

Testing bedload transport equations with consideration of time scales

Bedload transport is known to be a highly fluctuating temporal phenomenon, even under constant (mean) flow conditions, as a consequence of stochasticity, bedform migration, grain sorting, hysteresis, or sediment supply limitation. Because bedload transport formulas usually refer to a single mean transport value for a given flow condition, one can expect that prediction accuracy (when compared to measurements) will depend on the amplitude and duration of fluctuations, which in turn depend on the time scale used for observations. This paper aims to identify how the time scale considered can affect bedload prediction. This was done by testing 16 common bedload transport formulas with four data sets corresponding to different measurement period durations: (i) highly fluctuating (quasi‐)instantaneous field measurements; (ii) volumes accumulated at the event scale on two small alpine gravel‐bed rivers, potentially affected by seasonal fluctuations; (iii) volumes accumulated at the interannual scale in a meandering gravel bed river, thought to be weakly subject to fluctuations; (iv) time‐integrated flume measurements with nearly uniform sediments. The tests confirmed that the longer the measurement period, the better the precision of the formula's prediction interval. They also demonstrate several consequential limitations. Most threshold formulas are no longer valid when the flow condition is below two times the threshold condition for the largest elements' motion on the bed surface (considering D₈₄). In such conditions, equations either predict zero transport, or largely overestimate the real transport, especially when D₈₄ is high. There is a need for new sediment data collected with highly reliable techniques such as recording slot bedload samplers to further investigate this topic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic structure of the upper mantle beneath the western Philippine Sea

We investigate the seismic structure of the western Philippine Sea using two sets of seismological observations: ScS reverberations, which provide the layering framework for a regional upper mantle model, and observations of frequency-dependent phase delays for direct S waves, surface-reflected phases (sS, SS, sSS), and surface waves (R₁, G₁), which constrain the velocity and anisotropy structure within the layers. The combined data set, comprising 17 discontinuity amplitudes and layer travel times from the ScS-reverberation stack and more than 1000 frequency-dependent phase delays, was inverted for a path-averaged, radially anisotropic model. Mineralogical estimates of the bulk sound velocity and density are incorporated as complementary constraints. The final model, PHB3, is characterized by a 11.5-km thick crust, an anisotropic lid bounded by a sharp negative G discontinuity at 89 km, an anisotropic low-velocity layer extending to 166 km, a subjacent high-gradient region, and transition-zone discontinuities at depths of 408 km, 520 km and 664 km. The lid is slower than in a comparable model for the Tonga–Hawaii corridor (PA5), but also significantly thicker, requiring a compositional variation between the two regions. We explore the hypothesis that the thickness of the oceanic lid is controlled by the melting depth at the spreading centers during crust formation, and that the thicker crust and lid in the Philippine Sea results from deeper melting owing to a higher potential temperature and perhaps a higher water content in the upper mantle.     

Shell growth and oxygen isotopes in the topshell Osilinus turbinatus: resolving past inshore sea surface temperatures

Shells of the rocky shore intertidal gastropod Osilinus turbinatus (von Born), often abundant in archaeological deposits in the Mediterranean region, are a potential source of data on palaeotemperature, palaeoseasonality and archaeological seasonality. To evaluate this species as a climate archive, investigations of annual patterns of shell growth and of monthly variations in oxygen isotopes in shell carbonates were made on different populations in NW Sicily. Mark-recapture experiments at San Vito lo Capo and Mazzaforno show that O. turbinatus grows almost continuously throughout the year but at different rates in different seasons. Around 75% of the yearly shell growth occurs in the autumn and winter. On average, larger/older shells produce narrower annual growth increments than smaller/younger ones. Conspicuous growth lines in larger/older shells show that growth stops during the hottest part of the summer. Oxygen isotope analyses on monthly collected shells of O. turbinatus from three shores (Cala Grande, Monte Cofano and Mazzaforno) show that the isotope values record temperature variations through the year. In all the datasets, surface seawater temperatures (SSTs) calculated from δ¹⁸O_SHELL mostly underestimate measured SSTs, offsets being generally greater in summer. Minimum annual offsets range from 0.0°C to 0.7°C and maximum annual offsets from 3.1°C to 8.7°C. δ¹⁸O_SHELL values fail to record temperatures higher than 25°C. Careful selection of shells to be analysed can reduce offsets between δ¹⁸O_SHELL temperature estimates and measured SSTs for many parts of the year, except the hottest. Allowing for this, shells of O. turbinatus offer good potential as climate archives and for archaeological studies of seasonal patterns of human foraging for shellfish.