The geological significance of a negative gravity anomaly in the South Wales Coalfield

Three gravity traverses across the eastern half of the South Wales Coalfield indicate a local, elongate, negative Bouguer anomaly of a few milligals amplitude bordering the southern rim. The anomaly has a maximum amplitude of 4 mgal near Maesteg and attenuates eastward, dying out in the vicinity of the East Crop. Two possible geological causes of the anomaly are examined, namely a local thick sequence of normal Upper Carboniferous strata and a discrete, low-density body of Carboniferous age with no apparent surface expression. The former, uncontroversial explanation requires rock densities at variance with measured values. In the case of the hypothetical low density body which can explain the anomaly, a variety of possible ages and configurations are discussed.     

Reconstruction of palaeosalinity using carbon isotopes and benthic associations: a comparison

Carbon and oxygen isotopes were determined on 40 recrystallized shells of Late Jurassic bivalves from the Lusitanian Basin of Portugal. In contrast with the oxygen isotopes, which exhibited considerable diagenetic distortion, the carbon isotopes are thought to preserve a record of the salinity of the Jurassic marginal marine seas in which these bivalves lived. The reconstructed palaeosalinities range from 35%o (euhaline) to 5% (oligohaline). Comparing these values with the palaeosalinity reconstructed from a palaeoecological analysis of 17 stratigraphic levels within the basin, the independently derived values agree in most cases. Strongly differing values are explained as being due to biotic factors and to diagenetic distortion of the isotopic signal; they are less likely to be due to smallscale time-averaging or insufficient microstratigraphic sampling. On the whole, the carbon isotope analyses are thought to produce reasonable palaeosalinity values, although data from infaunal, originally aragonitic bivalves appear to be less reliable than those from epifaunal bivalves with a predominantly or exclusively calcitic shell. As diagenetic alteration of the carbon isotope signal is, however, unpredictable and biotic effects on the isotopic composition are insufficiently known, palaeosalinity reconstructions based on stable isotope data should be supported by palaeoecological data.     

Zur chemischen Variabilität regionalmetamorph gebildeter Plagioklase,Epidote und Granate

Plagioclases, Fe-rich epidotes and garnets coexisting in metamorphic rocks of basaltoid and granitoid substrata have been analyzed by standard microprobe techniques. The results presented are based on 34000 data on plagioclases, nearly 24400 on coexisting epidotes as well as of 5000 garnet data. The chemical variations within the singular plagioclase grain and in the range of a thin section are very comprehensive. Adjoining microfields (10–20 μm distance) exhibit differences in the An-contents between 30 and 80% rel. These observations are valid for nearly 78% of the examined plagioclases. Only in the higher amphibolite facies the An-variations are reduced to an average value of 32% rel. Merely the high temperature plagioclases with a compositional range of An 68-An 79 coexisting with clinopyroxene are largely homogeneous. Their variation is amounting to 6,5% An rel. The epidote chemisms reveal a dependance on both of the different substrata and their oxidation status. The maximum value of the Fe (III) substitution on the M₁ position in the epidote structure is reaching 97 molar per cent at the higher oxidized meta-granitoids and merely 87% at the metabasaltoids. The variations of the Fe/Al-proportions in the microfields are amounting to 5–20% as to the granitoid substrata and to 5–47% rel. as to the basaltoid substrata. In both of the substrata the garnets are very rich of almandine (40–70%). Besides variable amounts of grossularite and pyrope components they also contain 10–20% (basaltoids) and 1–20% (granitoids) spessartine. The most significant element variations are observed for the element Mn in garnets of granitoid origin. These variations attain 46% within the garnet grains. Only for the garnets of the basic substrata from the amphibolite facies one can state a homogenization. The reaction inertia in achieving metamorphic equilibrium is demonstrated by a selected metabasite sample of the amphibolite facies. It seems that only at temperature >600°C a homogenization of the plagioclases and garnets is initiated so that at low temperature a thermometry by means of An-contents in the plagioclases or Mn/Fe-relations in the garnets is not possible.     

Considerations on the European Standard EN 14157 Test Methods: Abrasion Resistance of Natural Stones Used for Flooring in Buildings

In Europe, the Wide Wheel abrasion (WWA) test and the B?hme abrasion (BA) test are among the most widely used standard test methods for determining abrasion resistance of natural stones, the former being the reference test method in EN 14157 Standard. However, it is stated in the Annex-A (Informative) of EN 14157 Standard that very limited data are available to provide correlations between these two test methods. To be able to fill this gap, in this study, 25 different natural stones belonging to sedimentary, metamorphic and igneous groups were tested for their abrasion resistance as well as physico-mechanical properties. Also, for a better interpretation of abrasion resistance characteristics of the tested stone materials, relationships between abrasion resistance and physico-mechanical properties were statistically examined. A statistically significant linear correlation (R ² = 0.85; P value = 0.000) was established between the WWA test and the BA test, which could be used in practice for converting the measured abrasion resistance values from one testing method to another. It was also found that the correlation between these two test methods improved significantly (R ² = 0.93; P value = 0.001) when relatively high-porosity stone materials (porosity ≥1%) were separately evaluated. Both methods of abrasion resistance employed in the present study showed statistically significant linear correlations with uniaxial compressive strength and Brazilian tensile strength, the former proving to be a more influencing parameter on resistance to abrasion. Also, from the point view of representing actual abrasion mechanism of stone materials in practice, the necessity of simulating multi-directional foot traffic in abrasion testing methods was discussed. In this respect, the reference test method in the EN 14157 Standard was criticized for not fully meeting this requirement. It was also pointed out that the reference method could have some drawbacks when applied to coarse-grained granitic rocks having cleavable minerals such as plagioclase and orthoclase feldspars.     

The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析

 根据珠江流域1961-2007年气温、降水量观测资料和ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式2011-2060年预估结果,分析了流域过去47 a的气温和降水量变化,并预估未来50 a变化趋势。结果表明,在全球变暖的背景下,过去47 a温度呈上升趋势,约升高1.8℃。冬季增温最明显,夏季最弱。未来50 a流域温度仍呈上升趋势,A1B情景下升幅约1.9℃,并且年际变化增强。A2和B1两种排放情景下秋季升温最显著,冬季最弱,A1B排放情景与此相反。过去47 a秋季降水量呈减少趋势;春、夏、冬季和年降水量均呈增加趋势。未来50 a降水总体呈增加趋势,A1B排放情景降水增加最多,约为230 mm。A2、A1B和B1情景下降水季节分配未发生显著变化。年降水和冬季降水的年际变率增强,秋季减弱。     

Atmospheric effects from post-nuclear fires

During a large nuclear war, the atmosphere would be loaded with huge quantities of pollutants, which are produced by fires in urban and industrial centers, cultivated lands, forests and grasslands. Especially detrimental are the effects of light absorbing airborne particles. An analysis of the amounts of the various types of fuels which could burn in a nuclear war indicates that more than 10¹⁴ g of black smoke could be produced by fires started by the nuclear explosions. Due to this, the penetration of sunlight to the earth's surface would be reduced greatly over extended areas of the northern hemisphere, maybe even globally. This could temporarily cause extreme darkness in large areas in midlatitudes and reduce crop growth and biospheric productivity.This situation would last for several weeks and cause very anomalous meteorological conditions. Much solar radiation would be absorbed in the atmosphere instead of at the earth's surface. The land areas and lower atmosphere would, therefore, cool and the overlying atmosphere warm, creating strong vertical thermal stability in a highly polluted atmosphere. For extended periods and in large parts of the world, weather conditions would be abnormal. The resulting cold, probably freezing, temperatures at the ground would interfere severely with crop production during the growing season and cause extreme conditions for large sections of the biosphere. The combination of lack of sunlight, frost and other adverse meteorological conditions would add enormously to the already huge problems of the survivors.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.