Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.     

Genetic relationship of rift-stage crustal structure, terrane accretion, and foreland tectonics along the southern Appalachian-Ouachita orogen

Abrupt along-strike variations in tectonostratigraphic composition, internal structural style, and detachment level in the southern Appalachian and Ouachita foreland thrust belts are defined at a large-scale bend in strike and a truncation of Ouachita structures by the frontal Appalachian thrust fault. The along-strike variations correspond to differences in the pre-orogenic rifted Laurentian margin, in the history and nature of terrane accretion, and in the response of the foreland to these differences. Within the Ouachita embayment of the Laurentian margin, diachronous arc-continent collision migrated northwestward along a rift-stage transform margin from the Black Warrior foreland basin on the southeast in Late Mississippian time to a short-wavelength, high-amplitude foreland basin (Arkoma basin) on the northwest in front of the Ouachita thrust-belt salient in Early-Middle Pennsylvanian time. Off-shelf, deep-water strata of both passive-margin and synorogenic facies comprise an accretionary prism and subduction complex, and the Ouachita allochthon consists of mud-dominated thrust sheets that are internally disharmonic and folded. The allochthon of off-shelf strata was thrust over the passive-margin carbonate shelf, which remains in the Ouachita footwall. Along the southeast side of the Alabama promontory of the Laurentian margin, passive-margin shelf carbonates are imbricated in the Appalachian thrust belt, which is characterized by internally coherent thrust sheets and high-amplitude frontal ramps. The palinspastic extent of shelf-carbonate rocks corresponds to the extent of structurally shallow basement rocks on the upper-plate rift-stage margin of the Alabama promontory of Laurentian crust. Terranes accreted to the Laurentian margin during the Taconic and Acadian orogenies were driven over the shallow basement by continent-continent collision of Laurentia with Africa (Gondwana). Emplacement of the thrust-translated terranes tectonically stripped and replaced the shelf carbonate. The frontal thrust fault of the Appalachian thrust belt truncates the southeastern end of the slightly older frontal Ouachita thrust belt, as well as the southeastern part of the greater Black Warrior basin in the Ouachita foreland. Shallow basement beneath the Appalachian thrust belt extends cratonward beneath the low-amplitude Appalachian foreland basin.     

On the inclusion of ground-based gravity measurements to the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model: case of the Durzon karst system (Larzac, southern France)

This work examines the relevance of the inclusion of ground-based gravity data in the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model. The analysis is performed for the Durzon karst system (Larzac, France). The first part of the study focuses on the hydrological interpretation of the ground-based gravity measurements. The second part of the study investigates further the information content of the gravity data with respect to water storage dynamics modelling. The gravity-derived information is found unable to either reduce equifinality of the single-objective, discharge-based model calibration process or enhance model performance through assimilation.     

Estimating sagebrush cover in semi-arid environments using Landsat Thematic Mapper data

Sagebrush ecosystems of the western US provide important habitat for several ungulate and vertebrate species. As a consequence of energy development, these ecosystems in Wyoming have been subjected to a variety of anthropogenic disturbances. Land managers require methodology that will allow them to consistently catalog sagebrush ecosystems and evaluate potential impact of proposed anthropogenic activities. This study addresses the utility of remotely sensed and ancillary geospatial data to estimate sagebrush cover using ordinal logistic regression. We demonstrate statistically significant prediction of ordinal sagebrush cover categories using spectral (χ² = 113; p < 0.0001) and transformed indices (χ² = 117; p < 0.0001). Both Landsat spectral bands (c-value = 0.88) and transformed indices (c-value = 0.89) can distinguish sites with closed, moderate and open cover sagebrush cover categories from no cover. The techniques described in this study can be used for estimating categories of sagebrush cover in arid ecosystems.     

Toxicity assessment of sediments associated with various land-uses in coastal South Carolina, USA, using a meiobenthic copepod bioassay

Coastal urbanization supplies surrounding estuarine environments with urban-related contaminants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), metals and pesticide mixtures. In our study, adult female and male copepods (Amphiascus tenuiremis) were chronically exposed to 18 sediment samples collected from sites influenced by different land-uses. Sediment samples were collected from three major suburban areas (Hilton Head, Kiawah Island and the Okatee River watershed) and a pristine site (North Inlet) in coastal South Carolina. Three-sediment bioassays (six sites per bioassay) were conducted by culturing copepods for 14 days in quadruplicate test sediments under flow-through conditions at 20 degrees C and 12:12 LD cycles. Adult survival and copepod reproductive output were quantified. Sediment samples were also analyzed by GC-MS for low and high molecular weight PAHs. Minimal adult mortality was observed in most sediment samples. However, sediments from Hilton Head Island and the Okatee River showed significant effects on copepod reproductive output (i.e., nauplii, copepodites and clutch size). Thus, we determined that reproductive endpoints rather than adult copepod survivorship were more sensitive to effects of contaminated sediments on A. tenuiremis. Furthermore, six (33%) of the 18 sites had a >25% reduction in copepod bioassay endpoints relative to controls, suggesting a high risk to long term A. tenuiremis population maintenance.     

Resonant Periodic Orbits of Trans-Neptunian Objects

We study two and three-dimensional resonant periodic orbits, usingthe model of the restricted three-body problem with the Sun andNeptune as primaries. The position and the stability character ofthe periodic orbits determine the structure of the phase space andthis will provide useful information on the stability and longterm evolution of trans-Neptunian objects. The circular planarmodel is used as the starting point. Families of periodic orbitsare computed at the exterior resonances 1/2, 2/3 and 3/4 withNeptune and these are used as a guide to select the energy levelsfor the computation of the Poincaré maps, so that all basicresonances are included in the study. Using the circular planarmodel as the basic model, we extend our study to more realisticmodels by considering an elliptic orbit of Neptune and introducingthe inclination of the orbit. Families of symmetric periodicorbits of the planar elliptic restricted three-body problem andthe three-dimensional problem are found. All these orbitsbifurcate from the families of periodic orbits of the planarcircular problem. The stability of all orbits is studied. Althoughthe resonant structure in the circular problem is similar for allresonances, the situation changes if the eccentricity of Neptuneor the inclination of the orbit is taken into account. All theseresults are combined to explain why in some resonances there aremany bodies and other resonances are empty.     

Numerical modeling of toxic nonaqueous phase liquid removal from contaminated groundwater systems: mesh effect and discretization error estimation

Numerical modeling has now become an indispensable tool for investigating the fundamental mechanisms of toxic nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) removal from contaminated groundwater systems. Because the domain of a contaminated groundwater system may involve irregular shapes in geometry, it is necessary to use general quadrilateral elements, in which two neighbor sides are no longer perpendicular to each other. This can cause numerical errors on the computational simulation results due to mesh discretization effect. After the dimensionless governing equations of NAPL dissolution problems are briefly described, the propagation theory of the mesh discretization error associated with a NAPL dissolution system is first presented for a rectangular domain and then extended to a trapezoidal domain. This leads to the establishment of the finger‐amplitude growing theory that is associated with both the corner effect that takes place just at the entrance of the flow in a trapezoidal domain and the mesh discretization effect that occurs in the whole NAPL dissolution system of the trapezoidal domain. This theory can be used to make the approximate error estimation of the corresponding computational simulation results. The related theoretical analysis and numerical results have demonstrated the following: (1) both the corner effect and the mesh discretization effect can be quantitatively viewed as a kind of small perturbation, which can grow in unstable NAPL dissolution systems, so that they can have some considerable effects on the computational results of such systems; (2) the proposed finger‐amplitude growing theory associated with the corner effect at the entrance of a trapezoidal domain is useful for correctly explaining why the finger at either the top or bottom boundary grows much faster than that within the interior of the trapezoidal domain; (3) the proposed finger‐amplitude growing theory associated with the mesh discretization error in the NAPL dissolution system of a trapezoidal domain can be used for quantitatively assessing the correctness of computational simulations of NAPL dissolution front instability problems in trapezoidal domains, so that we can ensure that the computational simulation results are controlled by the physics of the NAPL dissolution system, rather than by the numerical artifacts. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

The climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model, the NCAR CCM3 at spectral truncation of T170, corresponding to a grid cell size of roughly 75 km. The purpose of the study is to assess whether there are significant benefits from the higher resolution simulation compared to the lower resolution simulation associated with the role of topography. The LGM simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures (SST) reduced by 1°C, ice sheet topography, reduced CO₂, and 21,000 BP orbital parameters. The high-resolution model captures modern climate reasonably well, in particular the distribution of heavy precipitation in the tropical Pacific. For the ice age case, surface temperature simulated by the high-resolution model agrees better with those of proxy estimates than does the low-resolution model. Despite the fact that tropical SSTs were only 2.1°C less than the control run, there are many lowland tropical land areas 4–6°C colder than present. Comparison of T170 model results with the best constrained proxy temperature estimates (noble gas concentrations in groundwater) now yield no significant differences between model and observations. There are also significant upland temperature changes in the best resolved tropical mountain belt (the Andes). We provisionally attribute this result in part as resulting from decreased lateral mixing between ocean and land in a model with more model grid cells. A longstanding model-data discrepancy therefore appears to be resolved without invoking any unusual model physics. The response of the Asian summer monsoon can also be more clearly linked to local geography in the high-resolution model than in the low-resolution model; this distinction should enable more confident validation of climate proxy data with the high-resolution model. Elsewhere, an inferred salinity increase in the subtropical North Atlantic may have significant implications for ocean circulation changes during the LGM. A large part of the Amazon and Congo Basins are simulated to be substantially drier in the ice age—consistent with many (but not all) paleo data. These results suggest that there are considerable benefits derived from high-resolution model regarding regional climate responses, and that observationalists can now compare their results with models that resolve geography at a resolution comparable to that which the proxy data represent.