A Statistical Framework for Calculating and Assessing Compositional Linear Trends Within Fault Zones: A Case Study of the NE Block of the Clark Segment,San Jacinto Fault,California, USA

Utilizing chemical data derived from the various fault zone architectural components of the Clark strand of the San Jacinto fault, southern California, USA, we apply for the first time non-central principal component analysis to calculate a compositional linear trend within molar A–CN–K space. In this procedure A–CN–K are calculated as the molar proportions of Al₂O₃ (A), CaO* + Na₂O (CN), and K₂O (K) in the sum of molar Al₂O₃, Na₂O, CaO*, and K₂O. CaO* is the molar CaO after correction for apatite. We then derive translational invariant chemical alteration intensity factors, t, for each architectural component through orthogonal projection of analyzed samples onto the compositional linear trend. The chemical alteration intensity factor t determines the relative change in composition compared to the original state (i.e., the composition of the altered wall rocks). It is dependent on the degree of intensity to which the process or processes responsible for the change in composition of each architectural component has been active. These processes include shearing, fragmentation, fluid flow, and generation of frictional heat. Non-central principal component analysis indicates that principal component 1 explains 99.7 % of the spread of A–CN–K data about the calculated compositional linear trend (i.e., the variance). The significance level for the overall one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) is 0.0001. Such a result indicates that at least one significant difference across the group of means of t values is different at the 95 % confidence level. Following completion of the overall one-way ANOVA, the difference in means t test indicated that the mean of the t values for the fault core are different than the means obtained from the transition and damage zones. In contrast, at the 95 % confidence level, the means of the t values for the transition and damage zones are not statistically distinguishable. The results of XRD work completed during this study revealed that the <2 µm fraction is composed primarily of illite/smectite with ~15 % illite in the damage zone, of illite/smectite with ~30 % illite in the transition zone, and of discreet illite with very minor smectite in the fault core. These changes parallel the increasing values of the chemical alteration intensity factors (i.e., t). Based on the above results, it is speculated that when fault zones are derived from tonalitic wall rocks at depths of ~400 ± 100 m, the onset of the illite/smectite to illite conversion will occur when t values exceed 0.20 ± 0.12, the average chemical alteration intensity factor calculated for the transition zone. Under such conditions during repeated rupturing events, frictional heat is produced and acidic fluids with elevated temperatures (≥ ~125 °C) are flushed through the fault core. Over time, the combination of shearing, fragmentation, and frictionally elevated temperatures eventually overcomes the kinetic barrier for the illite/smectite to illite transition. Such settings and processes are unique to fault zones, and as a result, they represent an underappreciated setting for the development of illite from illite/smectite. The success of non-central principal component analysis in this environment offers the first statistically rigorous methodology for establishing the existence of compositional linear trends in fault zones. This method also derives quantifiable alteration intensity factors that could potentially be used to compare the intensity of alteration at different segments of a fault, as well as offer a foundation to interpret the potential driving forces for said alteration and differences therein.     

Distribution and Abundance of Arsenic in the Soils and Sediments of O‘ahu,Hawai‘i

Lack of high-spatial-resolution soil and sediment arsenic data for Hawai‘i has generated substantial disagreement between researchers and regulators regarding the magnitude of natural levels of arsenic in Hawai‘i and rendered difficult the defining of areas of anthropogenically elevated arsenic. Our earlier research into the occurrence of arsenic in terrestrial and marine environments revealed widely disparate concentrations of arsenic with no apparent spatial pattern. To better understand the distribution and abundance of arsenic in soils and sediments of O‘ahu, we collected an additional 64 samples at locations chosen to represent different environments with varying degrees of human impact. We found surface arsenic values that ranged from 0.28 to 740 ppm with a median concentration of 8.1 ppm, which is above the global median of 5 ppm and US soil median of 5.2 ppm. Higher concentrations of arsenic (up to 913 ppm) were encountered at depth in soil cores. The median arsenic in streambed sediments from one of our earlier studies of 6.1 ppm was comparable to the conterminous US median of 6.3 ppm; however, we encountered arsenic concentrations as high as 43.9 ppm (median = 8.60 ppm, n = 75) in marine sediments in recent work off the leeward coast of O‘ahu. Overall, arsenic in the soils and sediments of O‘ahu is elevated relative to world and national values, but there still is no readily discernible pattern in the distribution of arsenic to explain these elevated values.     

Simulations of deep pencil-beam redshift surveys

We create mock pencil-beam redshift surveys from very large cosmological N -body simulations of two cold dark matter (CDM) cosmogonies, an Einstein–de Sitter model ( τ CDM) and a flat model with Ω₀=0.3 and a cosmological constant (ΛCDM). We use these to assess the significance of the apparent periodicity discovered by Broadhurst et al. Simulation particles are tagged as 'galaxies' so as to reproduce observed present-day correlations. They are then identified along the past light-cones of hypothetical observers to create mock catalogues with the geometry and the distance distribution of the Broadhurst et al. data. We produce 1936 (2625) quasi-independent catalogues from our τ CDM (ΛCDM) simulation. A couple of large clumps in a catalogue can produce a high peak at low wavenumbers in the corresponding one-dimensional power spectrum, without any apparent large-scale periodicity in the original redshift histogram. Although the simulated redshift histograms frequently display regularly spaced clumps, the spacing of these clumps varies between catalogues and there is no 'preferred' period over our many realizations. We find only a 0.72 (0.49) per cent chance that the highest peak in the power spectrum of a τ CDM (ΛCDM) catalogue has a peak-to-noise ratio higher than that in the Broadhurst et al. data. None of the simulated catalogues with such high peaks shows coherently spaced clumps with a significance as high as that of the real data. We conclude that in CDM universes, the regularity on a scale of ∼130  h ⁻¹ Mpc observed by Broadhurst et al. has a priori probability well below 10⁻³.     

Focal Mechanisms and Stress Field in The Region Vogtland/Western Bohemia

We calculated focal mechanisms for 30 of the strongest events (1.5 M _L 3.3) in distinct subregions of Vogtland/Western Bohemia between 1990 and 1998. Our investigations are concerned with events of the swarms near Bad Elster (1991), Haingrün (1991), Nový Kostel (1994 and 1997) and Zwickau (1998), two events from a group of earthquakes near Klingenthal (1997) and eight single events. Seismograms were provided by the digital station networks of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Munich, the Technical University of Freiberg, the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic in Prague, the Masaryk University in Brno and some nearby stations of the German Regional Seismic Network (GRSN). To calculate focal mechanisms two inversion methods were applied. The inferred focal mechanisms do not show a simple, uniform pattern of seismic dislocation. All possible dislocation types – strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting - are represented. The prevailing mechanisms are normal and strike-slip faulting. Considerable differences in the fault plane solutions are noted for the individual subregions as well as in some cases among the individual events of a single swarm. For the Nový Kostel area we succeeded to resolve a change in the orientations of the nodal planes for the two successive swarms of December 1994 and January 1997. Besides this we also observe a change in the mechanisms, namely from strike-slip and normal faulting (December 1994) to strike-slip and thrust faulting (January 1997). Based on the inferred focal mechanisms the stress field was estimated. It turned out, that the dominating stress field in the region Vogtland/Western Bohemia does not substantially differ from the known stress field of West and Central Europe, being characterized by a SE-NW direction of the maximum compressive horizontal stress. We conclude that the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is not predominantly caused by an independent local stress field, but rather controlled by the dominating stress regime in Central Europe.     

Hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics in the German Bight. A focus on observations and numerical modelling in the East Frisian Wadden Sea

This work deals with analysis of hydrographic observations and results of numerical simulations. The data base includes acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCP) observations, continuous measurements on data stations and satellite data originating from the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) satellite ENVISAT with a spatial resolution of 300 m. Numerical simulations use nested models with horizontal resolutions ranging from 1 km in the German Bight to 200 m in the East Frisian Wadden Sea coupled with a suspended matter transport model. Modern satellite observations have now a comparable horizontal resolution with high-resolution numerical model of the entire area of the East Frisian Wadden Sea allowing to describe and validate new and so far unknown patterns of sediment distribution. The two data sets are consistent and reveal an oscillatory behaviour of sediment pools to the north of the back-barrier basins and clear propagation patterns of tidally driven suspended particulate matter outflow into the North Sea. The good agreement between observations and simulations is convincing evidence that the model simulates the basic dynamics and sediment transport processes, which motivates its further use in hindcasting, as well as in the initial steps towards forecasting circulation and sediment dynamics in the coastal zone.     

Snow loads on wire mesh and cable net rockfall slope protection systems

Snow load on mesh systems is complicated by many factors. This paper presents field instrumentation data on snow load variation with temperature, snowfall and snow depth on a mesh system. It was found that snow load pattern on mesh systems changed with temperature even without variation in snow depth. It reached its maximum value when the temperature rose just above freezing to melt the interface. The field data was used to formulate appropriate snow load models for the various conditions of temperature in the field. The snow load models were used to study the performance of a number of mesh systems in North America and estimate the interface friction that was prevalent for the different surface conditions.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.