Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON data with a hydrographic inversion for determination of the oceanic general circulation and its relation to geoid accuracy

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceano-graphic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations, Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.     

Geochronologic evidence for Early Cretaceous volcanic activity on Barton Peninsula, King George Island, Antarctica

Ages of six volcanic and plutonic rocks on Barton Peninsula, King George Island, were determined using ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K-Ar isotopic systems. The ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K-Ar ages of basaltic andesite and diorite range from 48 My to 74 My and systematically decrease toward the upper stratigraphic section. Two specimens of basaltic andesite which occur in the lowermost sequence of the peninsula, however, apparently define two distinct plateau ages of 52-53 My and 119-120 My. The latter is interpreted to represent the primary cooling age of basaltic andesite, whereas the former is interpreted as the thermally-reset age caused by the intrusion of Tertiary granitic pluton. The isochron ages calculated from the isotope correlation diagram corroborate our interpretation based on the apparent plateau ages. It is therefore likely that volcanism was active during the Early Cretaceous on Barton Peninsula. When the K-Ar ages of previous studies are taken into account with our result, the ages of basaltic andesite in the northern part of the Barton Peninsula are significantly older than those in the southern part. Across the north-west-south-east trending Barton fault bounding the two parts, there are significant differences in geochronologic and geologic aspects.     

水电项目对越南硒圣河地区社会经济发展及环境保护的影响

硒圣河是湄公河的主要分支之一,其集水区地形条件和水资源量均对水电开发十分有利。此外,无论从物种多样性还是生物量来看,硒圣河水生生物资源非常丰富。鱼类是当地人们的重要食物来源,粗略估计鱼类物种数量可能在200-300种之间,目前具有详细记录的鱼类大约为120种。截至目前,从越南境内硒圣河上游至越-柬边界总共开发了6个水电项目,兴建了一座4A级硒圣调蓄水库。流经柬埔寨的硒圣河部分,依据发展规划将兴建3座水电站,即硒圣5号电站（硒圣1号电站以下）、硒圣3号电站、硒圣2号电站。硒圣河水电项目对区域（越南和柬埔寨）社会经济的影响体现在：为地处偏远和困难的集水区创造了新的能源资源,改善了交通系统和农村地区的生活条件。与此同时,这些水电项目也对该区域自然环境产生了重大影响。例如,改变了下游流动机理变化,导致下游河道淤积,对沿河生态系统也产生了一定影响。     

Improved flood susceptibility mapping using a best first decision tree integrated with ensemble learning techniques

Improving the accuracy of flood prediction and mapping is crucial for reducing damage resulting from flood events. In this study, we proposed and validated three ensemble models based on the Best First Decision Tree (BFT) and the Bagging (Bagging-BFT), Decorate (Bagging-BFT), and Random Subspace (RSS-BFT) ensemble learning techniques for an improved prediction of flood susceptibility in a spatially-explicit manner. A total number of 126 historical flood events from the Nghe An Province (Vietnam) were connected to a set of 10 flood influencing factors (slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, river density, distance from rivers, flow direction, geology, soil, and land use) for generating the training and validation datasets. The models were validated via several performance metrics that demonstrated the capability of all three ensemble models in elucidating the underlying pattern of flood occurrences within the research area and predicting the probability of future flood events. Based on the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC), the ensemble Decorate-BFT model that achieved an AUC value of 0.989 was identified as the superior model over the RSS-BFT (AUC = 0.982) and Bagging-BFT (AUC = 0.967) models. A comparison between the performance of the models and the models previously reported in the literature confirmed that our ensemble models provided a reliable estimate of flood susceptibilities and their resulting susceptibility maps are trustful for flood early warning systems as well as development of mitigation plans.     

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Permo-Triassic Songrim (Indosinian) orogeny: evidence from the late Paleozoic Pyeongan Supergroup in the northeastern Taebaeksan Basin,South Korea

The deformed and metamorphosed middle Pennsylvanian to Early Triassic (?) rocks of the Pyeongan Supergroup, occurring in northeastern flank of the Paleozoic Taebaeksan Basin, east central South Korea, record the impact of the Late Permian–Triassic Songrim (Indosinian) collisional orogeny in the eastern Eurasia margin. Analysis of meso- and microstructures and their relationship with porphyroblast growth has revealed that these metasedimentary rocks were affected by four deformation events (D₁–D₄). During the polyphase deformations, successive foliations with alternately steep (S₁ and S₃) and flat-lying (S₂ and S₄) orientations were produced with growth of chloritoid, andalusite and kyanite porphyroblasts during D₁ and D₂, and growth of garnet, staurolite and andalusite porphyroblasts during D₃ and D₄. SHRIMP U–Pb detrital zircon ages (330–310 Ma) from metapelites in the oldest unit of the Pyeongan Supergroup in the study area, combined with the previous data on sandstone compositions, indicate magmatic activity that was contemporaneous with the initial deposition of the Pyeongan Supergroup. This also suggests that the Pyeongan Supergroup was deposited in an arc-related foreland basin at an active continental margin during the Late Carboniferous and Permian time. Two contractional deformation events (D₁ and D₃) and two events related to gravitational flattening (D₂ and D₄), along with Barrovian-type medium-pressure regional metamorphism, may have resulted from the Late Permian–Triassic Songrim orogeny, related to collision between the North and South China blocks and/or collision between the Eastern Eurasia margin and the proto-Japan terrane.     

Development of an Operational Hybrid Data Assimilation System at KIAPS

This study introduces the operational data assimilation (DA) system at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) to the numerical weather prediction community. Its development history and performance are addressed with experimental illustrations and the authors’ previously published studies. Milestones in skill improvements include the initial operational implementation of three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar), the ingestion of additional satellite observations, and changing the DA scheme to a hybrid four-dimensional ensemble-variational DA using forecasts from an ensemble based on the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). In the hybrid system, determining the relative contribution of the ensemble-based covariance to the resultant analysis is crucial, particularly for moisture variables including a variety of horizontal scale spectra. Modifications to the humidity control variable, partial rather than full recentering of the ensemble for humidity further improves moisture analysis, and the inclusion of more radiance observations with higher-level peaking channels have significant impacts on stratosphere temperature and wind performance. Recent update of the operational hybrid DA system relative to the previous 3DVar system is described for detailed improvements with interpretation.     

Effects of Resolution,Cumulus Parameterization Scheme,and Probability Forecasting on Precipitation Forecasts in a High-Resolution Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System

This study investigates the effects of horizontal resolution, cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS), and probability forecasting on precipitation forecasts over the Korean Peninsula from 00 UTC 15 August to 12 UTC 14 September 2013, using the limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. To investigate the effect of resolution, the control members of the LEPS with 1.5- and 3-km resolution were compared. Two 3-km experiments with and without the CPS were conducted for the control member, because a 3-km resolution lies within the gray zone. For probability forecasting, 12 ensemble members with 3-km resolution were run using the LEPS. The forecast performance was evaluated for both the whole study period and precipitation cases categorized by synoptic forcing. The performance of precipitation forecasts using the 1.5-km resolution was better than that using the 3-km resolution for both the total period and individual cases. The result of the 3-km resolution experiment with the CPS did not differ significantly from that without it. The 3-km ensemble mean and probability matching (PM) performed better than the 3-km control member, regardless of the use of the CPS. The PM complemented the defect of the ensemble mean, which better predicts precipitation regions but underestimates precipitation amount by averaging ensembles, compared to the control member. Further, both the 3-km ensemble mean and PM outperformed the 1.5-km control member, which implies that the lower performance of the 3-km control member compared to the 1.5-km control member was complemented by probability forecasting.     

Diagenesis of oxyanions (V, U, Re, and Mo) in pore waters and sediments from a continental margin

This research tests the hypothesis that trace metals respond to the extent of reducing conditions in a predictable way. We describe pore water and sediment measurements of iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), vanadium (V), uranium (U), rhenium (Re), and molybdenum (Mo) along a transect off Washington State (USA). Sediments become less reducing away from the continent, and the stations have a range of oxygen penetration depths (depth to unmeasurable O₂ concentration) varying from a few millimeters to five centimeters. When oxygen penetrates ∼1 cm or less, Fe is reduced in the pore waters but reoxidized near the sediment-water interface, preventing a flux of Fe²⁺ to overlying waters, whereas Mn oxides are reduced and Mn²⁺ diffuses to overlying waters. Both Re and U authigenically accumulate in sediments. Only at the most reducing location, where the oxygen penetrates 0.3 cm below the sediment-water interface, does the surface 30 cm of sediments become reducing enough to authigenically accumulate Mo.Stations in close proximity to the Juan de Fuca Ridge crest are enriched in Mn and Fe from hydrothermal plume processes. Both V and Mo clearly associate with Mn cycling, whereas U may be associating with either Mn oxides and/or Fe oxyhydroxides. Rhenium is uncomplicated by adsorption to Mn oxides and/or Fe oxyhydroxides, and Re accumulation in sediments appears to be due solely to the extent of reducing conditions. Therefore, authigenic sediment Re enrichment appears to be the best indicator for intermediate reducing conditions, where oxygen penetrates less than ∼1 cm below the sediment-water interface, when coupled with negligible authigenic Mo enrichment.     

‘White cranes fly over black cranes’: The longue durée of rural–urban migration in Vietnam

The changing nature of rural–urban migration, in the context of transition economies of East and Southeast Asia, is usually interpreted as an outcome of structural transformation, while the longue durée of these migration flows tends to be neglected. Adopting a historical perspective, supported by the ’migration as resistance’ approach, this paper examines the changes in rural–urban migration dynamics in Vietnam from the 1950s to 2010 in relation to the country’s political and economic reforms (Ð?i M?i). Drawing on a case study of female migration between Phu Khe and Hanoi, it analyses how migrants resist and undermine state control over population mobility in order to pursue their movement and migration, and how they develop their migration networks over time. By doing so, the paper highlights a gradual process of the changing nature of rural–urban migration in which migrants themselves, through their resistance to governance of mobility and their establishment of migration networks prior to Ð?i M?i, play an important role.