Spatial rainfall model using a pattern classifier for estimating missing daily rainfall data

Missing data in daily rainfall records are very common in water engineering practice. However, they must be replaced by proper estimates to be reliably used in hydrologic models. Presented herein is an effort to develop a new spatial daily rainfall model that is specifically intended to fill in gaps in a daily rainfall dataset. The proposed model is different from a convectional daily rainfall generation scheme in that it takes advantage of concurrent measurements at the nearby sites to increase the accuracy of estimation. The model is based on a two-step approach to handle the occurrence and the amount of daily rainfalls separately. This study tested four neural network classifiers for a rainfall occurrence processor, and two regression techniques for a rainfall amount processor. The test results revealed that a probabilistic neural network approach is preferred for determining the occurrence of daily rainfalls, and a stepwise regression with a log-transformation is recommended for estimating daily rainfall amounts.     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

Developing a high-resolution climatology for the Central California coastal region

This work presents a procedure for developing a high-resolution, regional climatology estimate, named RClimo, off the coast of central California. This high-resolution climatology may provide an alternative way to initialize numerical nowcast/forecast exercises in coastal regions. The methodology includes two primary steps: (1) averaging available data on a high-resolution grid and (2) objective interpolating the resulting average profiles onto a regular grid. The first step involves the computation of averages over density layers in the vertical and allowing for data gaps in the horizontal if data are unavailable at a high resolution. The OA in the second step uses anisotropic correlation length scales derived from the data themselves and an averaging radius to preserve the scales and variability of the synoptic fields.     

Study on effects of damping in laminated rubber bearings on seismic responses for a ⅛ scale isolated test structure

The effects of damping in various laminated rubber bearings (LRB) on the seismic response of a ?‐scale isolated test structure are investigated by shaking table tests and seismic response analyses. A series of shaking table tests of the structure were performed for a fixed base design and for a base isolation design. Two different types of LRB were used: natural rubber bearings (NRB) and lead rubber bearings (LLRB). Three different designs for the LLRB were tested; each design had a different diameter of lead plug, and thus, different damping values. Artificial time histories of peak ground acceleration 0.4g were used in both the tests and the analyses. In both shaking table tests and analyses, as expected, the acceleration responses of the seismically isolated test structure were considerably reduced. However, the shear displacement at the isolators was increased. To reduce the shear displacement in the isolators, the diameter of the lead plug in the LLRB had to be enlarged to increase isolator damping by more than 24%. This caused the isolator stiffness to increase, and resulted in amplifying the floor acceleration response spectra of the isolated test structure in the higher frequency ranges with a monotonic reduction of isolator shear displacement. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于黄海深部构造的地球物理认识

利用黄海海区重磁观测数据,以最新的地震层析成像和浅层反射地震探测结果作为约束,并利用小波分解、纹理特征图像处理等手段,对研究区进行了地球物理场特征分析、岩石物性总结、断裂信息提取和磁性基底埋深反演计算,同时对南黄海海域三条剖面进行了广义逆重磁数据拟合反演和地震P波速度成像.根据地球物理数据的各种处理结果,提出在南黄海西部存在一条串珠状地球物理线性构造带,并将这条NNW向断续延伸的构造带称之为南黄海西缘断裂带.该断裂带延伸长,断裂两侧前新生代地层差异较大,有可能是造成陆区和南黄海南部盆地区前新生代油气远景差异的原因之一.文中得到南黄海磁性基底埋藏分布具有“中间浅四周深”的分布特征,与地震层析成像结果相吻合.磁性基底的局部起伏和局部构造的边界断层共同控制了前新生代残留盆地的格架和残余厚度分布,反映出“区域控制局部,深层约束浅层”的规律.     

利用卫星长波长地球物理位场对东亚地区深部结构的研究

有研究表明从中国北部经黄海、朝鲜半岛、日本海至日本本州岛存在一个大型断裂带,被称为“北纬40°断裂带”.为了验证该断裂带的存在性,本文通过GRACE和CHAMP卫星的位场数据中的大尺度区域重力和磁力异常来研究该区的大型构造特征.区域性研究范围为24°N~56°N,90°E~150°E,详细研究范围为32°N~42°N,122°E~132°E.2008年Taylor等利用CHAMP卫星2005年6月至12月收集的轨道数据,从测量数据中消除地核和外部产生磁场效应,经化磁极之后得到磁异常图,从中来追踪构造特征,并根据地质和地球物理资料建立了数学模型来进行解释.本文在此基础上,增加了GRACE卫星2003年10月份测量的重力异常场数据.实测差分位场数据利用高斯-勒让德求积法转换为垂向重力异常值,通过减去最新地球重力场模型（EGM96）的场值来去除波长超过1100 km的长波长异常,所得的重力异常数据和磁场数据进行比较.为了能从中得到研究区的共同构造特征,建立一个球面棱柱模型进行正演模拟、并进行重、磁异常场的波数相关性分析.研究发现在重、磁异常中均发现一个呈负相关的纬向构造特征,东亚地区“北纬40°断裂带”横穿了整个朝鲜半岛.     

利用远震接收函数研究黄海周边地区的地壳上地幔结构

利用宽频带流动台站(YSBSN)记录的远震波形数据和远震接收函数方法,反演了黄海东、西两侧地壳上地幔的S波速度结构.结果表明,莫霍面深度在30~38 km之间变化,位于中方一侧的JNN台下方地壳厚度最大,可以归因于华北板块和扬子板块的碰撞;韩方一侧的地壳厚度自北向南逐渐变厚,但仍然难以厘定朝鲜半岛南部潜在碰撞带的位置,这些问题的解决需要更大范围的流动台站观测.由于部分台站位于巨厚的沉积层和多孔的火山岩之上,与浅部构造的相关性使得接收函数表现出较大振幅的混响,从而影响了来自深部结构的转换震相.     

PBDEs, methoxylated PBDEs and HBCDs in Japanese common squid (Todarodes pacificus) from Korean offshore waters

Little information is available on the levels of brominated compounds found in biota from the Korean Peninsula. In this study, Japanese common squids (Todarodes pacificus) were analyzed for 38 polybrominated diphenyl ethers, two methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers and three stereoisomers of hexabromocyclododecane (α, β, and γ-HBCD) from the east and western coasts of the Korean Peninsula. Among 38 PBDEs, 10 PBDEs were detected and their total concentrations ranged from 21 to 292 ng/g lipid wt with a mean concentration of 108 ng/g lipid wt, while two MeO-BDEs and three isomers of HBCDs were detected in all samples. BDE47 showed the highest residual level, followed by BDE99, 154, 153, 28/33. Concentrations of PBDEs and MeO-BDEs were not significantly different between the both sides of the Korean Peninsula; however, HBCD concentrations were higher levels in the East/Japan Sea than the Yellow Sea, indicating that HBCD sources possibly exist in Japan.     

Application of bivariate frequency analysis to the derivation of rainfall–frequency curves

Bivariate distributions have been recently employed in hydrologic frequency analysis to analyze the joint probabilistic characteristics of multivariate storm events. This study aims to derive practical solutions of application for the bivariate distribution to estimate design rainfalls corresponding to the desired return periods. Using the Gumbel mixed model, this study constructed rainfall–frequency curves at sample stations in Korea which provide joint relationships between amount, duration, and frequency of storm events. Based on comparisons and analyses of the rainfall–frequency curves derived from univariate and bivariate storm frequency analyses, this study found that conditional frequency analysis provides more appropriate estimates of design rainfalls as it more accurately represents the natural relationship between storm properties than the conventional univariate storm frequency analysis.