The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review

The problem of avoiding dangerous climate change requires analysis from many disciplines. Mainstream economic thinking about the problem has shifted with the Stern Review from a single-discipline focus on cost-benefit analysis to a new inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary risk analysis, already evident in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. This shift is more evidence of the failure of the traditional, equilibrium approach in general to provide an adequate understanding of observed behaviour, either at the micro or macro scale. The economics of the Stern Review has been accepted by governments and the public as mainstream economic thinking on climate change, when in some critical respects it represents a radical departure from the traditional treatment. The conclusions regarding economic policy for climate change have shifted from “do little, later” to “take strong action urgently, before it is too late”. This editorial sets out four issues of critical importance to the new conclusions about avoiding dangerous climate change, each of which have been either ignored by the traditional literature or treated in a misleading way that discounts the insights from other disciplines: the complexity of the global energy-economy system (including the poverty and sustainability aspects of development), the ethics of intergenerational equity, the understanding from engineering and history about path dependence and induced technological change, and finally the politics of climate policy.     

A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol

Stratospheric aerosol, noted after large volcanic eruptions since at least the late 1800s, were first measured in the late 1950s, with the modern continuous record beginning in the 1970s. Stratospheric aerosol, both volcanic and non-volcanic are sulfuric acid droplets with radii (concentrations) on the order of 0.1–0.5 µm (0.5–0.005 cm^− 3), increasing by factors of 2–4 (10–10³) after large volcanic eruptions. The source of the sulfur for the aerosol is either through direct injection from sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions, or from tropical injection of tropospheric air containing OCS, SO₂, and sulfate particles. The life cycle of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol, consisting of photo-dissociation and oxidation of sulfur source gases, nucleation/condensation in the tropics, transport pole-ward and downward in the global planetary wave driven tropical pump, leads to a quasi steady state relative maximum in particle number concentration at around 20 km in the mid latitudes. Stratospheric aerosol have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation balance for several years following volcanic eruptions. Away from large eruptions, the direct radiation impact is small and well characterized; however, these particles also may play a role in the nucleation of near tropopause cirrus, and thus indirectly affect radiation. Stratospheric aerosol play a larger role in the chemical, particularly ozone, balance of the stratosphere. In the mid latitudes they interact with both nitrous oxides and chlorine reservoirs, thus indirectly affecting ozone. In the polar regions they provide condensation sites for polar stratospheric clouds which then provide the surfaces necessary to convert inactive to active chlorine leading to polar ozone loss. Until the mid 1990s the modern record has been dominated by three large sulfur-rich eruptions: Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991), thus definitive conclusions concerning the trend of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol could only recently be made. Although anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ have changed somewhat over the past 30 years, the measurements during volcanically quiescent periods indicate no long term trend in non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol.     

Photoluminescence of zircon (ZrSiO4) doped with REE3+ (REE = Pr, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er)

The photoluminescence properties of synthetic zircon, ZrSiO₄, doped with REE³⁺ (REE = Pr, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er) were investigated using combined excitation and emission spectroscopy. All samples showed luminescence characteristics of intra-ion energy transitions, similar to other lanthanide-doped materials. However, the relative intensities were dependent on the energy of excitation and the presence of charge-transfer bands were inferred from excitation spectra. From the data, we conclude that the lanthanides in zircon occur in more than one type of coordination. Energy transfer between different lanthanides was observed in some co-doped samples and emissions that were unassigned in previous studies have been assigned to specific lanthanides based on excitation spectroscopy.     

Submicroscopic accessory minerals overprinting clay mineral REE patterns (celadonite–glauconite group examples)

Samples of glauconite, representing different stages of glauconitisation, as well as different formation environments, were analysed for rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements using a combination of bulk sample and spatially-resolved in situ techniques. The results indicate that the high-sensitivity, spatially-resolved technique of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) produces values up to two orders of magnitude lower than the bulk sample analyses. This suggests that submicroscopic rare earth element-bearing phases are distributed within the glauconite aggregates comprising the bulk samples. Analytical scanning electron microscopy (ASEM) revealed the presence of micrometre-sized grains of apatite and pore filling precipitates of an unidentified (REE, Ca)-phosphate (approximate composition Ca_0.3–0.4(Ce_0.4La_0.1–0.2Nd_0.1)PO₄) in some glauconite grains.The inherent REE concentrations of the glauconite aggregates (i.e., glauconite crystallites without accidental mechanical inclusions or authigenic, not layer silicate mineral precipitates) was found to be relatively low (e.g., typically less than 100 ppm), and this value decreased with increasing glauconitisation (smectite–mica transformation through a series of recrystallisation processes). These results suggest that the REEs substitute for Ca in the interlayer space of the layer silicate structure and, therefore, the REE content decreases as Ca is progressively removed from the interlayer (smectite–mica transition).LA-ICP-MS, when combined with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) or ASEM, offers an opportunity to exclude submicroscopic accessory minerals from glauconite trace element analyses, and so produces reliable trace element data for the respective minerals which host those elements.These results illustrate that accessory minerals are difficult to eliminate from clay samples, and that care needs to be taken in the interpretation of clay mineral REE distributions, irrespective of the aggregation state of the studied clay (i.e., whether finely dispersed within the sedimentary rock, or forming millimetre-sized aggregates). Model calculations showed that authigenic apatite associated with the studied green marine clays tends to have higher REE content than “bioapatites”, the total REE content being above 10 000 ppm.     

Potential Tsunami Hazard Associated with the Kerepehi Fault,Firth of Thames,New Zealand

Geophysical data have identified four submarine segments of the Kerepehi Fault, roughly bisecting a back-arc rift (Hauraki Rift). These segments have been traced through the shallow waters of the Firth of Thames, which lies at the southern end of the Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. No historical or paleotsunami data are available to assess the tsunami hazard of these fault segments.Analysis of the fault geometry, combined with paleoseismic data for three further terrestrial segments of the Fault, suggest Most Credible Earthquake (MCE) moment magnitudes of 6.5–7.1. Due to the presence of thick deposits of soft sediment, and thesemi-confined nature of the Firth, the MCE events are considered capable of generating tsunami or tsunami-like waves. Two numerical models (finite element and finite difference), and an empirical method proposed by Abe (1995), were used to predict maximum tsunami wave heights. The numerical models also modelled the tsunami propagation.The MCE events were found not to represent a major threat to the large metropolitan centre of Auckland City (New Zealand's largest population centre). However, the waves were a threat to small coastal communities around the Firth, including the township of Thames, and 35,000 ha of low-lying land along the southern shores of the Firth of Thames.The Abe method was found to provide a quick and useful method of assessing the regional tsunami height. However, for sources in water depths < 25 m the Abe method predicted heights 2–4 times larger than the numerical models. Since the numerical models were not intended for simulating tsunami generation in such shallow water, the Abe results are probably a good guide to the maximum wave heights.     

Ecology, shell morphology, anatomy and sperm ultrastructure of the caenogastropod Pyrgula annulata, with a discussion of the relationship between the ‘Pyrgulidae’ and Caspian and Baikalian Rissooideans

The composition of the Pyrgulidae and its relationships to other member families of the caenogastropod superfamily Rissooidea are examined after a consideration of new anatomical (including gross anatomy, sperm ultrastructure), conchological (including protoconch features), ecological, biogeographical and palaeontological data and a re-evaluation of existing literature. Pyrgulidae can be distinguished from hydrobiids unequivocally only with the aid of the radula. Sperm ultrastructural features suggest a very close relationship between the Pyrgulidae, the Hydrobiidae and the Bithyniidae (in fact no family-diagnostic sperm characters can be found to separate these three taxa). Based upon neontological and fossil evidence it is likely that pyrgulids represent a Miocene offshoot from a paratethyal hydrobiid lineage. Pyrgulids may also represent the stock from which the baicaliids arose, in which case the Pyrgulidae must be considered a paraphyletic group. The huge biogeographic gap between the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal is to some extent bridged by the finding of a Neogene pyrgulid from the Altai Mountains. An alternative scenario for the origin of baicaliids is presented.     

Reflections on measurement of residual stress in rock

Consideration of the behaviour of elastic bodies shows that it is not possible for a set of overcoring measurements that are made within isolated blocks to show residual strains or stresses that have a non-zero average, unless the size of the equilibrium volume over which the residual stresses balance is both considerably larger than the volume of the overcore and smaller than the size of the isolated block. Since some results have been reported that do not match these constraints, non-elastic behaviour must have occurred during overcoring. A possible explanation, is that oriented microcracks are somehow opened by the overcoring. In some cases, stress fields induced by microcracking near the overcoring cut may explain measured strain changes far from the cut. Consideration of various reported measurements in terms of relative sizes of overcoring and equilibrium volumes shows that care is necessary when interpreting residual stress measurements.