Potential climate change effects on warm-season livestock production in the Great Plains

Projected production responses were derived for confined swine and beef and for milk-producing dairy cattle based on climate change projections in daily ambient temperature. Milk production from dairy cattle and the number of days to grow swine and beef cattle were simulated. Values were obtained for three central United States transects and three climate scenarios which were based on projected mean daily ambient temperatures associated with a baseline, doubling, and tripling of atmospheric greenhouse gas (CO₂) levels for the period June 1 to October 31. For swine, a slight northwest to southeast gradient is evident. Transect 1 (west side) shows no losses under the doubling scenario and losses up to 22.4% under the tripling scenario. Transect 3 (east side) displays losses of over 70% under the tripling scenario. For beef, positive benefits were simulated in Transect 1 with increasing temperatures, although a northwest to southeast gradient was also evident. For dairy, no positive benefits in milk production were found due to climate effects. Projected production declines ranged from 1% to 7.2%, depending on location. However, ranges in predicted differences were less than those simulated for beef and swine. These simulations suggest regional differences in animal production due to climate change will be apparent. For small changes in climate conditions, animals will likely be able to adapt, while larger changes in climate conditions will likely dictate that management strategies be implemented. Exploration of the effects of climate changes on livestock should allow producers to adjust management strategies to reduce potential impact and economic losses due to environmental changes.     

Quantifying the sensitivity of simulated climate change to model configuration

This study used “factor separation” to quantify the sensitivity of simulated present and future surface temperatures and precipitation to alternative regional climate model physics components. The method enables a quantitative isolation of the effects of using each physical component as well as the combined effect of two or more components. Simulation results are presented from eight versions of the Mesoscale Modeling System Version 5 (MM5), one-way nested within one version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model (GISS AOGCM). The MM5 simulations were made at 108 km grid spacing over the continental United States for five summers in the 1990s and 2050s. Results show that the choice of cumulus convection parameterization is the most important “factor” in the simulation of contemporary surface summer temperatures and precipitation over both the western and eastern USA. The choice of boundary layer scheme and radiation package also increases the range of model simulation results. Moreover, the alternative configurations give quite different results for surface temperature and precipitation in the 2050s. For example, simulated 2050s surface temperatures by the scheme with the coolest 1990s surface temperatures are comparable to 1990s temperatures produced by other schemes. The study analyzes the spatial distribution of 1990s to 2050s projected changes in the surface temperature for the eight MM5 versions. The predicted surface temperature change at a given grid point, averaged over all eight model configurations, is generally about twice the standard deviation of the eight predicted changes, indicating relative consensus among the different model projections. Factor separation analysis indicates that the choice of cumulus parameterization is the most important modeling factor amongst the three tested contributing to the computed 1990s to 2050s surface temperature change, although enhanced warming over many areas is also attributable to synergistic effects of changing all three model components. Simulated ensemble mean precipitation changes, however, are very small and generally smaller than the inter-model standard deviations. The MM5 versions therefore offer little consensus regarding 1990s to 2050s changes in precipitation rates.     

Impact of non-outbreak insect damage on vegetation in northern Europe will be greater than expected during a changing climate

Background insect herbivory, in addition to insect outbreaks, can have an important long term influence on the performance of tree species. Since a projected warmer climate may favour insect herbivores, we use a dynamic ecosystem model to investigate the impacts of background herbivory on vegetation growth and productivity, as well as distribution and associated changes in terrestrial ecosystems of northern Europe. We used the GUESS ecosystem modelling framework and a simple linear model for including the leaf area loss of Betula pubescens in relation to mean July temperature. We tested the sensitivity of the responses of the simulated ecosystems to different, but realistic, degrees of insect damage. Predicted temperature increases are likely to enhance the potential insect impacts on vegetation. The impacts are strongest in the eastern areas, where potential insect damage to B. pubescens can increase by 4–5%. The increase in insect damage to B. pubescens results in a reduction of total birch leaf area (LAI), total birch biomass and birch productivity (Net Primary Production). This effect is stronger than the insect damage to leaf area alone would suggest, due to its second order effect on the competition between tree species. The model's demonstration that background herbivory may cause changes in vegetation structure suggests that insect damage, generally neglected by vegetation models, can change predictions of future forest composition. Carbon fluxes and albedo are only slightly influenced by background insect herbivory, indicating that background insect damage is of minor importance for estimating the feedback of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change.     

Constraints on Europa’s rotational dynamics from modeling of tidally-driven fractures

Cycloids, arcuate features observed on Europa’s surface, have been interpreted as tensile cracks that form in response to diurnal tidal stress caused by Europa’s orbital eccentricity. Stress from non-synchronous rotation may also contribute to tidal stress, and its influence on cycloid shapes has been investigated as well. Obliquity, fast precession, and physical libration would contribute to tidal stress but have often been neglected because they were expected to be negligibly small. However, more sophisticated analyses that include the influence of Jupiter’s other large satellites and the state of Europa’s interior indicate that perhaps these rotational parameters are large enough to alter the tidal stress field and the formation of tidally-driven fractures. We test tidal models that include obliquity, fast precession, stress due to non-synchronous rotation, and physical libration by comparing how well each model reproduces observed cycloids. To do this, we have designed and implemented an automated parameter-searching algorithm that relies on a quantitative measure of fit quality, which we use to identify the best fits to observed cycloids. We then apply statistical techniques to determine the tidal model best supported by the data. By incorporating obliquity, fits to observed southern hemisphere cycloids improve, and we can reproduce equatorial and equator-crossing cycloids. Furthermore, we find that obliquity plus physical libration is the tidal model best supported by the data. With this model, the obliquities range from 0.32° to 1.35°. The libration amplitudes are 0.72–2.44°, and the libration phases are −6.04° to 17.72° with one outlier at 84.5°. The variability in obliquity is expected if Europa’s ice shell is mechanically decoupled from the interior, and the libration amplitudes are plausible in the presence of a subsurface ocean. Indeed, the presence of a decoupling ocean may result in feedbacks that cause all of these rotational parameters to become time-variable.     

Sediment facies and pathways of sand transport about a large deep water headland,Cape Rodney,New Zealand

Cape Rodney is a large headland that protrudes 3–4 km into deep water in the Hauraki Gulf and separates the Mangawhai‐Pakiri and Omaha littoral cells. Detailed swath mapping of seabed sediments around Cape Rodney was carried out using by side‐scan sonar and ground‐truthed by SCUBA, grab sampling, and video. Despite the barrier imposed by the headland two pathways of sand transport around the headland, separated by the topographic high of Leigh Reef, have been identified. One lies close to the headland, where sand from the beach and nearshore of the Mangawhai‐Pakiri embayment is driven by waves and currents along a 500‐m‐wide pathway in c. 20–25 m depth around the headland to the vicinity of Leigh Harbour. The other lies in 50 m water‐depth seawards of Leigh Reef. Here fine sand, sourced from the nearshore of the Mangawhai‐Pakiri embayment and driven offshore from the tip of the headland, is transported back and forth by tidal currents in 50 m water depth on the floor of the Jellicoe Channel. The sand bodies along both these pathways are thin and so sand leakage from the Mangawhai‐Pakiri embayment is thought to be small. Transport at these depths is dependent on both tide and wave generated currents and episodic occurring during storm events. The sediment facies associated with little sand transport about a headland in deep water is one of thin and discontinuous and patchy sand cover between rocky areas and over coarser megarippled substrate. Ocean swell, tidally driven phase eddies that spin up on both sides of the headland, and bathymetry all play a role in shaping those facies.     

Future vegetation changes in thawing subarctic mires and implications for greenhouse gas exchange—a regional assessment

One of the major concerns regarding climate change in high latitudes is the potential feedback from greenhouse gases (GHG) being released from thawing peat soils. In this paper we show how vegetational patterns and associated GHG fluxes in subarctic palsa (peat mounds with a permanently frozen core) mires can be linked to climate, based on field observations from fifteen palsa sites distributed in northern Fennoscandia. Fine resolution (100?m) land cover data are combined with projections of future climate for the 21st century in order to model the potential future distribution of palsa vegetation in northern Fennoscandia. Site scale climate-vegetational relationships for two vegetation types are described by a climate suitability index computed from the field observations. Our results indicate drastic changes in the palsa vegetational patterns over the coming decades with a 97?% reduction in dry hummock areas by 2041?C2060 compared to the 1961?C1990 areal coverage. The impact of these changes on the carbon balance is a decrease in the efflux of CO₂ from 130 kilotonnes C y^?1 to a net uptake of 11 kilotonnes C y^?1 and a threefold increase in the efflux of CH₄ from 6 to 18 kilotonnes C y^?1 over the same period and over the 5,520?km² area of palsa mires. The combined effect is equivalent to a slight decrease in CO₂-C emissions, from 182 to 152 kilotonnes C y^?1. Main uncertainties involve the ability of the vegetation community to adapt to new conditions, and long-term changes in hydrology due to absence of ice and frost heaving.     

Microatoll record for large century-scale sea-level fluctuations in the mid-Holocene

Coral microatolls have been long used as precise indicators of past sea level, but their use for precise definition of detailed sea-level fluctuations is still rare. Here we report twelve high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometric ²³⁰Th ages for twelve rims of five mid-Holocene microatolls from an emerged reef terrace at Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea. This is a tectonically stable area, enabling us to reconstruct both the timing and trajectory of local sea-level fluctuations accurately. The elevations of these microatoll rims and cores were accurately determined relative to the surface of modern living microatolls at the same site. The results indicate that the sea level during the period of 7050–6600 yr bp (years before AD 1950) was about 171 to 219 cm above the present, with at least four cycles of fluctuations. Over this 450 yr interval, sea level fluctuated by 20–40 cm on century scales.     

A survey of the occurrence of Bacillus anthracis in North American soils over two long-range transects and within post-Katrina New Orleans

Soil samples were collected along a north–south transect extending from Manitoba, Canada, to the US–Mexico border near El Paso, Texas in 2004 (104 samples), a group of sites within New Orleans, Louisiana following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (19 samples), and a Gulf Coast transect extending from Sulphur, Louisiana, to DeFuniak Springs, Florida, in 2007 (38 samples). Samples were collected from the top 40 cm of soil and were screened for the presence of total Bacillus species and Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), specifically using multiplex-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Using an assay with a sensitivity of 170 equivalent colony-forming units (CFU) g⁻¹ field moist soil, the prevalence rate of Bacillus sp./B. anthracis in the north–south transect and the 2005 New Orleans post-Katrina sample set were 20/5% and 26/26%, respectively. Prevalence in the 2007 Gulf Coast sample set using an assay with a sensitivity of 4 CFU g⁻¹ of soil was 63/0%. Individual transect-set data indicate a positive relation between occurrences of species and soil moisture or soil constituents (i.e., Zn and Cu content). The 2005 New Orleans post-Katrina data indicated that B. anthracis is readily detectable in Gulf Coast soils following flood events. The data also indicated that occurrence, as it relates to soil chemistry, may be confounded by flood-induced dissemination of germinated cells and the mixing of soil constituents for short temporal periods following an event.     

Soil properties and stable carbon isotope analysis of landscape features in the Petexbatún region of Guatemala

Soil properties and stable carbon isotope ratios contained in the soil organic matter (SOM) were used to investigate the change in vegetative history of land cleared anciently for maize (Zea mays L.) agriculture in the Petexbatún region of Guatemala. Maize and other C⁴ plants associated with land clearance leave a carbon isotopic signature in the SOM different from the C³ plants of native forest vegetation. Soil profiles were collected from various landscape features around the Classic Maya site of Aguateca: control locations (areas likely not used in ancient agriculture), defensible locations (areas near defensive walls), rejolladas (natural karst depressions), upland locations (well‐drained soils atop the Aguateca escarpment), and bajos (seasonal and perennial wetlands). The chemical and physical properties of the profiles were examined and the soils were taxonomically classified to the great group level. The changes in d¹³C with soil depth were determined and compared statistically. The ¹³C enrichment of the SOM in bajo and rejollada profiles were similar and were significantly (p < 0.05) greater than the control, defensible, and upland soils. This isotopic signature of sustained C⁴ vegetation was likely associated with forest clearance and ancient Maya agriculture. Both the bajo and rejollada landscape features appear to have been valuable agricultural resources for ancient Maya. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.