A range of existing statistical approaches for reconstructing historical temperature variations from proxy data are compared using both climate model data and real-world paleoclimate proxy data. We also propose a new method for reconstruction that is based on a state-space time series model and Kalman filter algorithm. The state-space modelling approach and the recently developed RegEM method generally perform better than their competitors when reconstructing interannual variations in Northern Hemispheric mean surface air temperature. On the other hand, a variety of methods are seen to perform well when reconstructing surface air temperature variability on decadal time scales. An advantage of the new method is that it can incorporate additional, non-temperature, information into the reconstruction, such as the estimated response to external forcing, thereby permitting a simultaneous reconstruction and detection analysis as well as future projection. An application of these extensions is also demonstrated in the paper. 相似文献
Early in the STEREO mission observers noted that the white-light instruments of the SECCHI suite were detecting significantly more spacecraft-related “debris” than any previously flown coronagraphic instruments. Comparison of SECCHI “debris storms” with S/WAVES indicates that almost all are coincident with the most intense transient emissions observed by the radio and plasma waves instrument. We believe the debris is endogenous (i.e., from the spacecraft thermal blanketing), and the storms appear to be caused by impacts of large interplanetary dust grains that are detected by S/WAVES. Here we report the observations, compare them to interplanetary dust distributions, and document a reminder for future spacebased coronagraphic instrument builders.
In this study, we combined grain size and geochemical analyses with radioisotope analysis of lead-210 (210Pb), caesium-137 (137Cs) and radiocarbon (14C) ages to reconstruct the sedimentation history of two urbanised coastal lagoons in south-east Australia. Towradgi and Fairy
Lagoons were both found to exhibit slow initial sedimentation of less than 1 mm year−1 prior to anthropogenic influences. Land clearing in the catchments increased runoff and erosion in the creeks feeding into
the estuaries, and has resulted in progradation of fluvial material into the estuarine systems with a marked increase in sedimentation
to between 2 and 7 mm year−1. The upper 20–50 cm of the sediment column in both lagoons contained elevated concentrations of heavy metals such as Pb,
Cu, Ni and Zn. This pollution trend was found to be consistent with the history of industrialisation and urbanisation in the
region, which expanded rapidly post World War 2. The total metal concentrations were consistent with other urbanised/industrialised
estuaries around the world. Despite the fairly disturbed nature of these coastal lagoons, the use of 210Pb, 137Cs and 14C dating in combination with bulk geochemical analyses allowed detailed reconstruction of sedimentation history. 相似文献
A rhyolitic ash-flow tuff in a hydrothermally active area within the Yellowstone caldera was drilled in 1967, and cores were studied to determine the nature and distribution of primary and secondary mineral phases. The rocks have undergone a complex history of crystallization and hydrothermal alteration since their emplacement 600,000 years ago. During cooling from magmatic temperatures, the glassy groundmass underwent either devitrification to alkali feldspar + α-cristobalite ± tridymite or granophyric crystallization to alkali feldspar + quartz. Associated with the zones of granophyric crystallization are prismatic quartz crystals in cavities similar to those termed miarolitic in plutonic rocks. Vapor-phase alkali feldspar, tridymite, magnetite, and sporadic α-cristobalite were deposited in cavities and in void spaces of pumice fragments. Subsequently, some of the vapor-phase alkali feldspar crystals were replaced by microcrystalline quartz, and the vapor-phase minerals were frosted by a coating of saccharoidal quartz.Hydrothermal minerals occur primarily as linings and fillings of cavities and fractures and as altered mafic phenocrysts. Chalcedony is the dominant mineral related to the present hydrothermal regime and occurs as microcrystalline material mixed with various amounts of hematite and goethite. The chalcedony displays intricate layering and was apparently deposited as opal from silica-rich water. Hematite and goethite also replace both mafic phenocrysts and vapor-phase magnetite. Other conspicuous hydrothermal minerals include montmorillonite, pyrite, mordenite, calcite, and fluorite. Clinoptilolite, erionite, illite, kaolinite, and manganese oxides are sporadic. The hydrothermal minerals show little correlation with temperature, but bladed calcite is restricted to a zone of boiling in the tuff and clearly was deposited when CO2 was lost during boiling.Fractures and breccias filled with chalcedony are common throughout Y-5 and may have been produced by rapid disruption of rock caused by sudden decrease of fluid pressure in fractures, most likely a result of fracturing during resurgent doming in this part of the Yellowstone caldera. The chalcedony probably was deposited as opal or β-cristobalite from a pre-existing silica floc that moved rapidly into the fractures and breccias immediately after the sudden pressure drop. 相似文献
A release of 1,2-dichloroethane. also known as ethylene dichloride (EDC), resulted in shallow subsurface freephase contamination of a Gulf Coast site in the southern United States. The site stratigraphy consists primarily of a low permeability, surficial peat. silt, and clay zone underlain by fractured clay; a confined 12 in deep sand ground water flow zone; a confined 21 m deep fine sand zone of limited ground water flow, followed by a deep aquitard. The Gumbo clay and sandy clay aquitard below the release area overlies and protects the 61 m deep Upper Chicot Aquifer, which is a confined regional aquifer. An ongoing recovery and hydraulic containment program from the primary impacted and laterally and vertically restricted shallow 40-foot sand zone has effectively recovered dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) and contained dissolved phase EDC. Natural attenuation of EDC was demonstrated through (1) a laboratory microcosm study substantiating the ability of the native microbial population in the deeper aquifer lo degrade EDC under anaerobic environmental conditions found at the site. (2) field investigations showing reductions in EDC concentrations over time in many of the wells on site, and (3) an evaluation of the ground water for EDC and its degradation products and oilier geo-chemical parameters such as dissolved oxygen, redox potential, and pH. Degradation products of EDC found in the field investigations included 2-chloroeihanol, ethanol. ethene, and ethane. Dissolved EDC concentrations in selected wells between the first recorded samples and the fourth quarter of 1997 ranged from greater than 4% to 99% reductions. First-order exponential decay half-lives ranged from 0.21 to 4.2 years for wells showing decreases in FDC concentrations over time. Elevated methane concentrations indicated carbon dioxide to be the major terminal electron acceptor. 相似文献
In-situ Hf isotope analyses and U–Pb dates were obtained by laser ablation-MC-ICP-MS for a zircon-bearing mantle eclogite xenolith from the diamondiferous Jericho kimberlite located within the Archean Slave Province (Nunavut), Canada. The U–Pb zircon results yield a wide range of ages (2.0 to 0.8 Ga) indicating a complex geological history. Of importance, one zircon yields a U–Pb upper intercept date of 1989 ± 67 Ma, providing a new minimum age constraint for zircon crystallization and eclogite formation. In contrast, Hf isotope systematics for the same zircons display an intriguing uniformity, and corresponding Hf depleted mantle model ages range between 2.1 ± 0.1 and 2.3 ± 0.1 Ga; the youngest Hf model age is within error to the oldest U–Pb date.
The Jericho eclogites have previously been interpreted as representing remnants of metamorphosed oceanic crust, and their formation related to Paleoproterozoic subduction regimes along the western margin of the Archean Slave craton during the Wopmay orogeny. Hf isotope compositions and U–Pb results for the Jericho zircons reported here are in good agreement with a Paleoproterozoic subduction model, suggesting that generation of oceanic crust and eclogite formation occurred between 2.0 and 2.1 Ga. The slightly older Hf depleted mantle model ages (2.1 to 2.3 Ga) may be reconciled with this model by invoking mixing between ‘crustal’-derived Hf from sediments and more radiogenic Hf associated with the oceanic crust during the 2 Ga subduction event. This results in intermediate Hf isotope compositions for the Jericho zircons that yield ‘fictitiously’ older Hf model ages. 相似文献