Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA

Probabilistic analysis has been used as an effective tool to evaluate uncertainty so prevalent in variables governing rock slope stability. In this study a probabilistic analysis procedure and related algorithms were developed by extending the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach was used to analyze rock slope stability for Interstate Highway 40 (I-40), North Carolina, USA. This probabilistic approach consists of two parts: analysis of available geotechnical data to obtain random properties of discontinuity parameters; and probabilistic analysis of slope stability based on parameters with random properties. Random geometric and strength parameters for discontinuities were derived from field measurements and analysis using the statistical inference method or obtained from experience and engineering judgment of parameters. Specifically, this study shows that a certain amount of experience and engineering judgment can be utilized to determine random properties of discontinuity parameters. Probabilistic stability analysis is accomplished using statistical parameters and probability density functions for each discontinuity parameter. Then, the two requisite conditions, kinematic and kinetic instability for evaluating rock slope stability, are determined and evaluated separately, and subsequently the two probabilities are combined to provide an overall stability measure. Following the probabilistic analysis to account for variation in parameters, results of the probabilistic analyses were compared to those of a deterministic analysis, illustrating deficiencies in the latter procedure. Two geometries for the cut slopes on I-40 were evaluated, the original 75° slope and the 50° slope which has developed over the past 40 years of weathering.     

The Development of Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting

A review of the development and status of seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting up until 2001 is presented covering not only the successes but also identifying some of the major challenges remaining. Included is discussion on the history of the enterprise; the scientific basis of modern seasonal to inter-annual prediction and its background of predictability theory; the current status of predictions and the measurement of their skill; the experiences and consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño event; approaches to linking forecasts with applications; and a view to the future.     

2007: International Heliophysical Year

The International Heliophysical Year is an international programme of global research to understand the external drivers of the space environment and climate, continuing the tradition of previous International Years. It is introduced here by Richard Harrison, Andy Breen, Barbara Bromage and Joe Davila.     

A long-term Arctic snow depth record from Abisko, northern Sweden, 1913–2004

A newly digitized record of snow depth from the Abisko Scientific Research Station in northern Sweden covers the period 1913-present. Mean snow depths were taken from paper records of measurements made on a profile comprising 10 permanent stakes. This long-term record yields snow depths consistent with two other shorter term Abisko records: measurements made at another 10-stake profile (1974-present) and at a single stake (1956-present). The measurement interval is variable, ranging from daily to monthly, and there are no data for about half of the winter months in the period 1930-1956. To fill the gaps, we use a simple snowpack model driven by concurrent temperature and precipitation measurements at Abisko. Model snow depths are similar to observed; differences between the two records are comparable to those between profile and single stake measurements. For both model and observed snow depth records, the most statistically significant trend is in winter mean snow depths, amounting to an increase of about 2 cm or 5 % of the mean per decade over the whole measurement period, and 10% per decade since the 1930-40s, but all seasonal means of snow depth show positive trends on the longest timescales. However, the start, end, and length of the snow season do not show any statistically significant long-term trends. Finally, the relation between the Arctic Oscillation index and Abisko temperature, precipitation and snow depth is positive and highly significant, with the best correlations for winter.     

Recent rapid salinity rise in three East Antarctic lakes

Research in East Antarctica has shown several recent environmental changes that may be linked to human impacts on climate. In order to detect the influence and context of these changes on coastal aquatic ecosystems we examined lake sediment cores from three lakes in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica; Beall Lake, Holl Lake and ȁ8Lake Mȁ9. Cores were sectioned at␣2.5 mm intervals. Their diatom species composition was examined to detect changes in lake salinity using a diatom-salinity transfer function, and their algal pigment content was examined to detect photoautotrophic community responses to environmental change. Results showed that Holl Lake originated in a depression exposed by Holocene recession of the continental ice sheet and that Beall Lake and Lake M originated as isolated marine basins formed by changes in relative sea level. A general late Holocene trend of declining lake salinity was evident in all three lakes, interrupted by one short-term high salinity event in Beall Lake. This is consistent with a long-term positive moisture balance. This general decline in salinity has been followed by a remarkable recent rapid increase in salinity in all three lakes in the last few decades. We speculate that this rapid increase in salinity might be linked to changes taking place in the region including feedbacks resulting from decreasing sea ice extent as recorded in the nearby Law Dome ice core, and positive feedbacks in the catchments whereby reduced snow cover has led to decreased albedo, which in turn has caused increased evaporation and sublimation. Collectively these changes have shifted the lakes across a threshold from positive to negative moisture balance. A minor, but not rapid shift in the abundance of diatom pigments relative to pigments from green algae and cyanobacteria was also detected suggesting that some changes in photoautotrophic community composition have occurred. Measurements of modern nutrient levels are also higher than would be expected in Beall Lake and Holl Lake, given the extremely low sediment accumulation rates. This may be associated with a c. 300% increase in the population of Adélie penguins in the Windmill Islands recorded since the 1950s, or may a first signs of a rapid increase in catchment development and associated lake productivity as experienced in Antarctic and Arctic lakes subject to recent rapid regional warming. The most marked feature of the records is the rapid increase in salinity in all three lakes in␣the last few decades, which has occurred in lakes both with and without resident penguin populations.Dominic A. Hodgson and Donna Roberts contributed equally to this work     

Recent carbon and nitrogen uptake rates of phytoplankton in Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea

Cruises to Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea in US waters from late June in 2002 to early September in 2004 and the Russian–American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) research cruise in 2004 covered all major water masses and contributed to a better understanding of the regional physics, nutrient dynamics, and biological systems. The integrated concentration of the high nitrate pool in the central Chukchi Sea was greater in this study than in previous studies, although the highest nitrate concentration (∼22 μM) in the Anadyr Water mass passing through the western side of Bering Strait was consistent with prior observations. The chlorophyll-a concentrations near the western side of the Diomede Islands ranged from 200 to 400 mg chl-a m⁻² and the range in the central Chukchi Sea was 200–500 mg chl-a m⁻² for the 2002–2004 Alpha Helix (HX) cruises. Chlorophyll-a concentrations for the 2004 RUSALCA cruise were lower than those from previous studies. The mean annual primary production of phytoplankton from this study, using a ¹³C–¹⁵N dual-isotope technique, was 55 g C m⁻² for the whole Chukchi Sea and 145 g C m⁻² for the plume of Anadyr–Bering Shelf Water in the central Chukchi Sea. In contrast, the averages of annual total nitrogen production were 13.9 g N m⁻² (S.D.=±16.2 g N m⁻²) and 33.8 g N m⁻² (S.D.=±14.1 g N m⁻²) for the Chukchi Sea and the plume, respectively. These carbon and nitrogen production rates of phytoplankton were consistently two-or three-fold lower than those from previous studies. We suggest that the lower rates in this study, and consequently more unused nitrate in the water column, were caused by lower phytoplankton biomass in the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea. However, we do not know if the lower rate of production from this study is a general decreasing trend or simply temporal variations in the Chukchi Sea, since temporal and geographical variations are substantially large and presently unpredictable.     

Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty

A new method, Bayesian Programming (BP), developed by Harrison [Harrison KW. Multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty and stochasticity: Bayesian Programming. Adv Water Resour, submitted for publication] is tested on a case study involving optimal adaptive management of a river basin. The case study considers anew the process of permitting pulp mills on the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The problem has characteristics common to many environmental management problems. There is uncertainty in the water quality response to pollutant loadings that will not be completely resolved with monitoring and the resolution of this uncertainty is impeded by the stochastic behavior of the water quality system. A two-stage adaptive management process is optimized with BP. Based on monitoring data collected after implementation of the first-stage decision, the uncertainties are updated prior to the second decision stage using Bayesian analysis. The worth of this two-stage adaptive management approach to this problem and the worth of monitoring are evaluated. Conclusions are drawn on the general practicality of BP for adaptive management. Potential strategies are outlined for extending the BP approach to secure further benefits of adaptive management.     

Joint EUV/Radio Observations of a Solar Filament

In this paper we compare simultaneous extreme ultraviolet (EUV) line intensity and microwave observations of a filament on the disk. The EUV line intensities were observed by the CDS and SUMER instruments on board SOHO and the radio data by the Very Large Array and the Nobeyama radioheliograph. The main results of this study are the following: (1) The Lyman continuum absorption is responsible for the lower intensity observed above the filament in the EUV lines formed in the transition region (TR) at short wavelengths. In the TR lines at long wavelengths the filament is not visible. This indicates that the proper emission of the TR at the filament top is negligible. (2) The lower intensity of coronal lines and at radio wave lengths is due to the lack of coronal emission: the radio data supply the height of the prominence, while EUV coronal lines supply the missing hot matter emission measure (EM). (3) Our observations support a prominence model of cool threads embedded in the hot coronal plasma, with a sheath-like TR around them. From the missing EM we deduce the TR thickness and from the neutral hydrogen column density, derived from the Lyman continuum and Hei absorption, we estimate the hydrogen density in the cool threads.     

AVIATR—Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance

We describe a mission concept for a stand-alone Titan airplane mission: Aerial Vehicle for In-situ and Airborne Titan Reconnaissance (AVIATR). With independent delivery and direct-to-Earth communications, AVIATR could contribute to Titan science either alone or as part of a sustained Titan Exploration Program. As a focused mission, AVIATR as we have envisioned it would concentrate on the science that an airplane can do best: exploration of Titan??s global diversity. We focus on surface geology/hydrology and lower-atmospheric structure and dynamics. With a carefully chosen set of seven instruments??2 near-IR cameras, 1 near-IR spectrometer, a RADAR altimeter, an atmospheric structure suite, a haze sensor, and a raindrop detector??AVIATR could accomplish a significant subset of the scientific objectives of the aerial element of flagship studies. The AVIATR spacecraft stack is composed of a Space Vehicle (SV) for cruise, an Entry Vehicle (EV) for entry and descent, and the Air Vehicle (AV) to fly in Titan??s atmosphere. Using an Earth-Jupiter gravity assist trajectory delivers the spacecraft to Titan in 7.5 years, after which the AVIATR AV would operate for a 1-Earth-year nominal mission. We propose a novel ??gravity battery?? climb-then-glide strategy to store energy for optimal use during telecommunications sessions. We would optimize our science by using the flexibility of the airplane platform, generating context data and stereo pairs by flying and banking the AV instead of using gimbaled cameras. AVIATR would climb up to 14?km altitude and descend down to 3.5?km altitude once per Earth day, allowing for repeated atmospheric structure and wind measurements all over the globe. An initial Team-X run at JPL priced the AVIATR mission at FY10 $715M based on the rules stipulated in the recent Discovery announcement of opportunity. Hence we find that a standalone Titan airplane mission can achieve important science building on Cassini??s discoveries and can likely do so within a New Frontiers budget.