Test application of Bayesian Programming: Adaptive water quality management under uncertainty

A new method, Bayesian Programming (BP), developed by Harrison [Harrison KW. Multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty and stochasticity: Bayesian Programming. Adv Water Resour, submitted for publication] is tested on a case study involving optimal adaptive management of a river basin. The case study considers anew the process of permitting pulp mills on the Athabasca River in Alberta, Canada. The problem has characteristics common to many environmental management problems. There is uncertainty in the water quality response to pollutant loadings that will not be completely resolved with monitoring and the resolution of this uncertainty is impeded by the stochastic behavior of the water quality system. A two-stage adaptive management process is optimized with BP. Based on monitoring data collected after implementation of the first-stage decision, the uncertainties are updated prior to the second decision stage using Bayesian analysis. The worth of this two-stage adaptive management approach to this problem and the worth of monitoring are evaluated. Conclusions are drawn on the general practicality of BP for adaptive management. Potential strategies are outlined for extending the BP approach to secure further benefits of adaptive management.     

Geometric and structural river channel complexity and the prediction of urban inundation

Recent research modelling floodplain inundation processes has concentrated on issues surrounding the level of physical, topographical, and numerical solver complexity needed to represent floodplain flows adequately. However, during flooding episodes the channel typically still conveys the bulk of the flow. Despite this, the effect of channel physical processes and topographic complexity on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this, the impact of channel cross‐section geometry, channel long‐profile variability and the representation of hydraulic structures on floodplain inundation are explored using a coupled dynamic 1D‐2D hydraulic model (ESTRY‐TUFLOW) of the Carlisle floods of January 2005. These simulations are compared with those from a simplified 1D‐2D model, LISFLOOD‐FP. In this case, the simpler model is sufficient to simulate the far‐field peak flood elevations. However, comparison of channel dynamics suggests that the full shallow water approximation used by ESTRY‐TUFLOW gives a more robust performance when models calibrated on maximum floodplain water elevations are used to predict channel water levels. Examination of the response of ESTRY‐TUFLOW to variations in channel geometric complexity shows that downstream variations in the channel long profile are more important than cross‐section variability for obtaining a dataset‐independent calibration. The results show, in general, that as model physical complexity is increased, calibrated parameters become less ‘effective’, and as a consequence, the values of performance measures reduce less rapidly away from the optimum value. This means that often more physically complex models are less likely to yield different optimum parameter values when calibrated on different datasets resulting in a more robust numerical model. Lastly, the inclusion of bridge structures can simulate substantial local backwatering effects, but the variability in observed water and wrack marks is such that it is not possible to discern the effect of the bridges at this site in the post‐event observational dataset. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An experimental investigation of the partitioning of REE between garnet and liquid with reference to the role of defect equilibria

The partitioning of samarium and thulium between garnets and melts in the systems Mg₃Al₂-Si₃O₁₂-H₂O and Ca₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-H₂O has been studied as a function of REE concentration in the garnets at 30 kbar pressure. Synthesis experiments of variable time under constant P, T conditions indicate that garnet initially crystallizes rapidly to produce apparent values of D _Sm (D _Sm=concentration of Sm in garnet/concentration of Sm in liquid) which are too large in the case of pyrope and too small in the case of grossular. As the experiment proceeds, Sm diffuses out of or into the garnet and the equilibrium value of D _Sm is approached. Approximate values of diffusion coefficients for Sm in pyrope garnet obtained by this method are 6 × 10^–13 cm² s^–1 at 1,300 ° C and 2 × 10^–12 cm² s^–1 at 1,500 ° C, and for grossular, 8.3 × 10^–12 cm² s^–1 at 1,200 ° C and 4.6 × 10^–11 cm² s^–1 at 1,300 ° C. The equilibrium values of D _Sm have been reversed by experiments with Sm-free pyrope and Sm-bearing glass, and with Sm-bearing grossular and Sm-free glass.Between 12 ppm and 1,000 ppm Sm in pyrope at 1,300 ° C and between 80 ppm and >2 wt.% Tm in pyrope at 1,500 ° C, partition coefficients are constant and independent of REE concentration. Above 100 ppm of Sm in garnet at 1,500 ° C, partition coefficients are independent of Sm concentration. At lower concentrations, however, D _Sm is dependent upon the Sm content of the garnet. The two regions may be interpreted in terms of charge-balanced substitution of Sm₃Al₅O₁₂ in the garnet at high Sm concentrations and defect equilibria involving cation vacancies at low concentrations. At very low REE concentrations (< 1 ppm Tm in grossular at 1,300 ° C) D_REE garnet/liquid again becomes constant with an apparent Henry's Law value greater than that at high concentrations. This may be interpreted in terms of a large abundance of cation vacancies relative to the number of REE ions.The importance of defects in the low concentration region has been confirmed by adding other REE (at 80 ppm level) to the system Mg₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-H₂O at low Sm concentrations. These change D _Sm in the defect region, demonstrating their role in the production of vacancies.Experiments on a natural pyropic garnet indicate that defect equilibria are of importance to REE partitioning within the concentration ranges found in nature.     

Will climate change impact on wind power development in the UK?

Partly in response to concerns about anthropogenic climate change, renewable energy production is growing rapidly in the United Kingdom (UK). The wind power industry takes advantage of the country having some of the highest mean wind speeds in Europe. Future climate change, however, has the potential to alter the characteristics of the UK wind climate. Small changes in mean wind speed could produce much greater changes in wind energy output as the power generated is related to the cube of wind speed. This paper aims to use a simple method to provide insight into projected future UK wind climate and how this might differ from current patterns. A discussion of the scale of the projected impacts on the wind energy industry follows.     

Large-scale rhyolite peperites (Jurassic, southern Chile)

Development of a Jurassic volcano-tectonic rift basin in the southern Andes created a setting in which thick, rhyolitic volcaniclastic sequences accumulated in submarine environments and were penetrated by hypabyssal intrusions during or shortly after deposition. In the Ultima Esperanza District of southern Chile, extensive masses of peperite were produced when rhyolite magma underwent quenching, disruption, and commingling with wet, unconsolidated sediments during intrusion at shallow levels beneath the sea floor. The peperite forms discordant intrusive masses with volumes of up to several cubic kilometers, in which large, widely spaced, coherent rhyolite feeder pods are surrounded by, and grade into closely packed and dispersed peperite. Closely packed peperite consists of tightly fitting clasts separated by sediment-filled fractures. In dispersed peperite, the sediment forms a matrix surrounding large masses of fractured rhyolite and smaller more widely separated rhyolite clasts; evidence of in situ quench fragmentation is well preserved on both outcrop and thin-section scales. Thin sections show that clast margins and, in some cases, entire small clasts underwent cooling-contraction granulation, releasing shards of quenched rhyolite and fragments of phenocrysts into the adjacent sediment.Interaction between magma and wet sediment was non-explosive and involved fluidization of the host sediments, creating space for the intruding magma and causing pervasive injection of highly mobile sediment along thermal contraction cracks in quench-fragmented rhyolite. The ability of the magma to undergo complex intermixing with large volumes of sediment, with widespread preservation of in situ fragmentation textures, is interpreted to reflect a relatively low magma viscosity, presumably caused by retention of volatiles in the magma at the ambient pressures involved.Beds of redeposited peperite within the rift-basin fill indicate that some of the intrusive peperite masses reached the sea floor, undergoing slumping and mass flow. The peperites were thus an important local source of coarse-grained debris during the evolution of the basin.     

Sorted bedforms on the inner shelf off northeastern New Zealand: spatiotemporal relationships and potential paleo-environmental implications

Sorted bedforms are heterogeneous shelf seabed features found ubiquitously on the inner shelf of New Zealand and around the world. In this study we examine the shallow stratigraphy of sorted bedforms using diver-collected short cores together with the textural analysis of the associated surface sediments in the Tairua-Pauanui embayment on the northeast coast of the North Island of New Zealand. Combining sonar and textural analysis together with the local oceanographic conditions provides new insight into the interpretation of sorted bedform features. In this regional case study, sorted bedforms are found to have a stratigraphic signature characterized by alternating fine and coarse sequences that does not reflect alternating calm (low-energy) and storm (high-energy) cycles. Instead, the core sequences suggest the signature of a heterogeneous inner shelf sedimentary facies developed from morphodynamic feedback mechanisms operating at the scale of the bottom boundary layer. The resulting sedimentary sequence (alternating coarse and fine units) found throughout this study site is the result of contemporaneous sorting processes.     

Vulnerability,resilience and development discourses in context of climate change

The paper discusses how the current climate change debate influences the way in which development is conceptualised, negotiated and implemented. The objective of the article is to explore some of the underlying controversies that characterise development discourses in the context of climate change. Adaptation to climate change goes along with a significant shift in discourses used to deal with what is normally called development. This is reflected in shifting research interests and perspectives, from vulnerability studies to resilience thinking. However, the paper argues, this shift is problematic for the normative contents of development and especially for a pro-poor and grass roots perspective.     

The identification of 9-n-alkyl fluorene-9-ols in the Alberta oil sands

Homologous series of 9-n-alkyl fluorene-9-ols and their nuclear methylated derivatives have been detected in the Alberta oil sands and their structure identified by infrared, field ionization and capillary gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and by comparison with synthetic standards.