Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system

Abstract

Quality is key to ensuring that the potential offered by weather radar networks is realized. To achieve optimum quality, a comprehensive radar data quality management system, designed to monitor the end-to-end radar data processing chain and evaluate product quality, is being developed at the UK Met Office. Three contrasting elements of this system are described: monitoring of key radar hardware performance indicators; generation of long-term integrations of radar products; and monitoring of radar reflectivity factor using synthesized observations from numerical weather prediction model fields. Examples of each component are presented and ways in which the different types of monitoring information have been used to both identify issues with the radar product data quality and help formulate solutions are given.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Harrison, D., Georgiou, S., Gaussiat, N., and Curtis, A., 2013. Long-term diagnostics of precipitation estimates and the development of radar hardware monitoring within a radar product data quality management system. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1327–1342. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841316     

Rare earth element composition of Paleogene vertebrate fossils from Toadstool Geologic Park,Nebraska, USA

Fossil bones and teeth from terrestrial environments encode unique rare earth and trace element (REE and TE) signatures as a function of redox conditions, pH, concentrations of complexing ligands, and water-colloid interactions. This signature is set early in the fossilization process and serves as a paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic proxy. These signatures can also be used to interpret temporal and spatial averaging within vertebrate accumulations, and can help relocate displaced fossil bones back into stratigraphic context. Rare earth elements in vertebrate fossils from upper Eocene and Oligocene strata of Toadstool Geologic Park, northwestern Nebraska, record mixing and evolution of Paleogene vadose or groundwaters and variations in paleoenvironments. REE signatures indicate that HREE-enriched alkaline groundwater reacted with LREE- and MREE-enriched sediments to produce 3-component mixtures. REE signatures become increasingly LREE- and MREE-enriched toward the top of the studied section as the paleoenvironment became cooler and drier, suggesting that REE signatures may be climate proxies. Time series analysis suggests that REE ratios are influenced by cycles of ca. 1050, 800, 570, 440, and 225 ka, similar to some previously determined Milankovitch astronomical and climate periodicities.     

Strike-slip fault patterns on Europa: Obliquity or polar wander?

Variations in diurnal tidal stress due to Europa’s eccentric orbit have been considered as the driver of strike-slip motion along pre-existing faults, but obliquity and physical libration have not been taken into account. The first objective of this work is to examine the effects of obliquity on the predicted global pattern of fault slip directions based on a tidal-tectonic formation model. Our second objective is to test the hypothesis that incorporating obliquity can reconcile theory and observations without requiring polar wander, which was previously invoked to explain the mismatch found between the slip directions of 192 faults on Europa and the global pattern predicted using the eccentricity-only model. We compute predictions for individual, observed faults at their current latitude, longitude, and azimuth with four different tidal models: eccentricity only, eccentricity plus obliquity, eccentricity plus physical libration, and a combination of all three effects. We then determine whether longitude migration, presumably due to non-synchronous rotation, is indicated in observed faults by repeating the comparisons with and without obliquity, this time also allowing longitude translation. We find that a tidal model including an obliquity of 1.2°, along with longitude migration, can predict the slip directions of all observed features in the survey. However, all but four faults can be fit with only 1° of obliquity so the value we find may represent the maximum departure from a lower time-averaged obliquity value. Adding physical libration to the obliquity model improves the accuracy of predictions at the current locations of the faults, but fails to predict the slip directions of six faults and requires additional degrees of freedom. The obliquity model with longitude migration is therefore our preferred model. Although the polar wander interpretation cannot be ruled out from these results alone, the obliquity model accounts for all observations with a value consistent with theoretical expectations and cycloid modeling.     

Solar modulation in surface atmospheric electricity

The solar wind modulates the flux of galactic cosmic rays impinging on Earth inversely with solar activity. Cosmic ray ionisation is the major source of air's electrical conductivity over the oceans and well above the continents. Differential solar modulation of the cosmic ray energy spectrum modifies the cosmic ray ionisation at different latitudes, varying the total atmospheric columnar conductance. This redistributes current flow in the global atmospheric electrical circuit, including the local vertical current density and the related surface potential gradient. Surface vertical current density and potential gradient measurements made independently at Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, from 1978 to 1985 are compared with modelled changes in cosmic ray ionisation arising from solar activity changes. Both the lower troposphere atmospheric electricity quantities are significantly increased at cosmic ray maximum (solar minimum), with a proportional change greater than that of the cosmic ray change.     

Effects of nutrients and irradiance on PSII variable fluorescence of lake phytoplankton assemblages

Phytoplankton from Lake Ontario and six small Canadian lakes (Dorset Lakes) were supplemented with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) to determine how nutrients affect Photosystem II (PSII) variable fluorescence and photoinhibition in natural freshwater communities. Susceptibility of PSII to photoinhibition by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and ultraviolet radiation (UVR), as well as recovery potential, was quantified using changes in variable fluorescence and compared between N- and P-supplemented (Nu+) and non-supplemented (Nu?) Lake Ontario phytoplankton. Nu+ communities exhibited slightly higher variable fluorescence than Nu? when dark-adapted (F_v:F_m) or under constant illumination (F_q′:F_m′). Rates of relative electron transport (rETR) were greater for Nu+ than Nu? phytoplankton, with higher non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) by Nu? samples. The initial slope of the rETR-irradiance curve (α) did not differ significantly between nutrient treatments, but the saturation irradiance (E_K) was significantly higher for Nu+ samples than for Nu? samples. Nutrient supplementation increased rates of PAR- and UVR-dependent damage but also recovery, so that net PSII photoinhibition was equally severe as in the absence of added N and P. Additions of N, P, and N + P did not significantly alter F_v:F_m of Dorset Lakes phytoplankton. Compared to the range of variable fluorescence observable over the diel cycle of photoinhibition and recovery in Lake Ontario, the effects of supplemental nutrients observed in this study were minor.     

Bayesian approach to contaminant source characterization in water distribution systems: adaptive sampling framework

Bayesian analysis can yield a probabilistic contaminant source characterization conditioned on available sensor data and accounting for system stochastic processes. This paper is based on a previously proposed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach tailored for water distribution systems and incorporating stochastic water demands. The observations can include those from fixed sensors and, the focus of this paper, mobile sensors. Decision makers, such as utility managers, need not wait until new observations are available from an existing sparse network of fixed sensors. This paper addresses a key research question: where is the best location in the network to gather additional measurements so as to maximize the reduction in the source uncertainty? Although this has been done in groundwater management, it has not been well addressed in water distribution networks. In this study, an adaptive framework is proposed to guide the strategic placement of mobile sensors to complement the fixed sensor network. MCMC is the core component of the proposed adaptive framework, while several other pieces are indispensable: Bayesian preposterior analysis, value of information criterion and the search strategy for identifying an optimal location. Such a framework is demonstrated with an illustrative example, where four candidate sampling locations in the small water distribution network are investigated. Use of different value-of-information criteria reveals that while each may lead to different outcomes, they share some common characteristics. The results demonstrate the potential of Bayesian analysis and the MCMC method for contaminant event management.     

Energetic Charged Particles Above Thunderclouds

The French government has committed to launch the satellite TARANIS to study transient coupling processes between the Earth’s atmosphere and near-Earth space. The prime objective of TARANIS is to detect energetic charged particles and hard radiation emanating from thunderclouds. The British Nobel prize winner C.T.R. Wilson predicted lightning discharges from the top of thunderclouds into space almost a century ago. However, new experiments have only recently confirmed energetic discharge processes which transfer energy from the top of thunderclouds into the upper atmosphere and near-Earth space; they are now denoted as transient luminous events, terrestrial gamma-ray flashes and relativistic electron beams. This meeting report builds on the current state of scientific knowledge on the physics of plasmas in the laboratory and naturally occurring plasmas in the Earth’s atmosphere to propose areas of future research. The report specifically reflects presentations delivered by the members of a novel Franco-British collaboration during a meeting at the French Embassy in London held in November 2011. The scientific subjects of the report tackle ionization processes leading to electrical discharge processes, observations of transient luminous events, electromagnetic emissions, energetic charged particles and their impact on the Earth’s atmosphere. The importance of future research in this area for science and society, and towards spacecraft protection, is emphasized.     

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from ¹⁴C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance.     

Temporal association of arc–continent collision,progressive magma contamination in arc volcanism and formation of gold-rich massive sulphide deposits on Wetar Island (Banda arc)

Whole-rock ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ¹⁸O analyses of volcanic rocks and ³He/⁴He analyses of sulphides and sulphates from mineralized rocks on Wetar, Indonesia indicate a variable contribution of assimilated crustal material or sediment sourced from the subducted Australian craton to the south. These new data support the idea of progressive source contamination with precisely dated events showing that Wetar Island hosts the most extreme examples of crustal assimilation in the region. The increased continental contamination occurs during the Pliocene (Zanclian to Piacenzian) during distinct magmatic events between 5 and 4 Ma, and at 2.4 Ma when ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in unaltered lavas, with whole-rock δ¹⁸O values between 5.7 and 9.6‰, increase from 0.707484 to extreme radiogenic values of 0.711656.The earlier of these magmatic events is important in the generation of the hydrothermal systems responsible for the mineralization recorded on Wetar. Samples from this yield radiogenic ³He/⁴He ratios between 0.5 and 1.4 R/R_A, similar to the data from volcanic rocks on nearby Romang. The later magmatic event coincides with the arrival of the Australian Continental Margin at the subduction zone along the Banda arc. Progressive incorporation of continental-sourced components into the source region below the Wetar Island edifice coincides with the formation of gold-rich volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits hosted within the contaminated volcanic pile.     

Seasonal variation and tidal influences on estuarine use by bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus)

In order to show that dolphins use estuary habitats differently depending on the season and tidal state, possibly in response to prey distribution, temperature, risk of stranding and accessibility, Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) were observed year-round during a 3-year study in the Clarence River estuary (CR) and Richmond River estuary (RR) in northern New South Wales, Australia. Peak dolphin sightings occurred during the spring season and one or 2 h prior to high tide. The spatial distribution of the dolphins in each estuary was analysed using the distance in kilometres that the dolphins travelled upstream with seasons and tidal phase as determinants. A General Linear Model showed that in the CR the dolphin spatial distribution in the estuary was not determined by season (F = 0.434, df = 3, P = 0.729) but was by tidal phase (F = 9.943, df = 3, P < 0.001) and the interaction between season and tidal phase (F = 3.398, df = 9, P < 0.002). However, in the RR the spatial distribution of the dolphin use of the estuary was not determined by either season (F = 1.647, df = 3, P = 0.194) or tidal phase (F = 0.302, df = 3, P = 0.824). In the CR, the spatial distribution of the dolphins was largest on high and flood tides. This pattern of spatial distribution may occur because the CR is a relatively shallow estuary and this increased spatial distribution may reflect a lower stranding risk and an increase in accessibility of shallow areas during periods of higher tide. These areas could also provide access to their preferred prey items of sea mullet (Mugil cephalus) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata).