Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods

A range of existing statistical approaches for reconstructing historical temperature variations from proxy data are compared using both climate model data and real-world paleoclimate proxy data. We also propose a new method for reconstruction that is based on a state-space time series model and Kalman filter algorithm. The state-space modelling approach and the recently developed RegEM method generally perform better than their competitors when reconstructing interannual variations in Northern Hemispheric mean surface air temperature. On the other hand, a variety of methods are seen to perform well when reconstructing surface air temperature variability on decadal time scales. An advantage of the new method is that it can incorporate additional, non-temperature, information into the reconstruction, such as the estimated response to external forcing, thereby permitting a simultaneous reconstruction and detection analysis as well as future projection. An application of these extensions is also demonstrated in the paper.     

Optimizing point-source parameters for scanning satellite surveys

We describe a method for deriving the position and flux of point and compact sources observed by a scanning survey mission. Results from data simulated to test our method are presented, which demonstrate that at least a 10-fold improvement is achievable over that of extracting the image parameters, position and flux, from the equivalent data in the form of pixel maps. Our method achieves this improvement by analysing the original scan data and performing a combined, iterative solution for the image parameters. This approach allows for a full and detailed account of the point-spread function (PSF), or beam profile, of the instrument. Additionally, the positional information from different frequency channels may be combined to provide the flux-detection accuracy at each frequency for the same sky position. Ultimately, a final check and correction of the geometric calibration of the instrument may also be included. The Planck mission was used as the basis for our simulations, but our method will be beneficial for most scanning satellite missions, especially those with non-circularly symmetric PSFs.     

STEREO SECCHI and S/WAVES Observations of Spacecraft Debris Caused by Micron-Size Interplanetary Dust Impacts

Early in the STEREO mission observers noted that the white-light instruments of the SECCHI suite were detecting significantly more spacecraft-related “debris” than any previously flown coronagraphic instruments. Comparison of SECCHI “debris storms” with S/WAVES indicates that almost all are coincident with the most intense transient emissions observed by the radio and plasma waves instrument. We believe the debris is endogenous (i.e., from the spacecraft thermal blanketing), and the storms appear to be caused by impacts of large interplanetary dust grains that are detected by S/WAVES. Here we report the observations, compare them to interplanetary dust distributions, and document a reminder for future spacebased coronagraphic instrument builders.

     

Diffusion of Ar in muscovite

Hydrothermal treatment of closely sized muscovite aggregates in a piston-cylinder apparatus induced ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss that is revealed in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar step heating spectra. Age spectra and Arrhenius data, however, differ from that expected from a single diffusion length scale. A numerical model of episodic loss assuming the presence of multiple diffusion domains yields excellent fits between synthetic and actual degassing spectra. We used this model to isolate ⁴⁰Ar^∗ loss from the grains that remained intact during hydrothermal treatment at 10 kbar permitting calculation of diffusion coefficients in the temperature range 730-600 °C. Diffusion data generated in this manner yield an activation energy (E) of 63 ± 7 kcal/mol and frequency factor (D_o) of 2.3  cm²/s. Experiments at 20 kbar yield diffusivities lower by about an order of magnitude and correspond to an activation volume of ∼14 cm³/mol. Together, these parameters predict substantially greater retentivity of Ar in muscovite than previously assumed and correspond to a closure temperature (T_c) of 425 °C for a 100 μm radius grain cooling at 10 °C/Ma at 10 kbar (T_c = 405 °C at 5 kbar. Age and log (r/r_o) spectra for the run products show strong correlations indicating that muscovites can retain Ar diffusion boundaries and mechanisms that define their natural retentivity during vacuum step heating. This may permit the application of high resolution, continuous ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronology to low grade, regionally metamorphosed terranes.     

Comparison of Fry strain ellipse and AMS ellipsoid trends to tectonic fabric trends in very low-strain sandstone of the Appalachian fold–thrust belt

In moderately to highly strained sandstones, both the long axis of the bedding-parallel finite-strain ellipse, as calculated by the normalized Fry method, and the projection of the long axis of the AMS ellipsoid on the plane of bedding, align well with local “structural grain” (trends of cleavage, folds, and faults). This relationship implies that results of both 2D Fry and AMS analyses represent the local layer-parallel tectonic strain component. Do both methods provide comparable results for very low-strain sandstone (e.g., <5%)? To address this question, Fry and AMS analyses were conducted in very low-strain sandstone from two localities in the Appalachian foreland fold–thrust belt: near Rosendale in New York and the Lackawanna synclinorium of Pennsylvania. We compared the map projections of both bedding-parallel Fry ellipses and AMS ellipsoids to the local structural grain. In both study areas, projections of the long axis of Fry strain ellipses do not cluster in a direction parallel to structural grain, whereas the projection of the long axes of AMS ellipsoids do cluster closely to structural grain. This observation implies that in very low-strain sandstone, AMS analysis provides a more sensitive “quick” indicator of tectonic fabric than does normalized Fry analysis.     

Aerial electromagnetic sounding of the lithosphere of Venus

Electromagnetic (EM) investigation depths are larger on Venus than Earth due to the dearth of water in rocks, in spite of higher temperatures. Whistlers detected by Venus Express proved that lightning is present, so the Schumann resonances ～10–40 Hz may provide a global source of electromagnetic energy that penetrates ～10–100 km. Electrical conductivity will be sensitive at these depths to temperature structure and hence thermal lithospheric thickness. Using 1D analytic and 2D numerical models, we demonstrate that the Schumann resonances—transverse EM waves in the ground-ionosphere waveguide—remain sensitive at all altitudes to the properties of the boundaries. This is in marked contrast to other EM methods in which sensitivity to the ground falls off sharply with altitude. We develop a 1D analytical model for aerial EM sounding that treats the electrical properties of the subsurface (thermal gradient, water content, and presence of conductive crust) and ionosphere, and the effects of both random errors and biases that can influence the measurements. We initially consider specified 1D lithospheric thicknesses 100–500 km, but we turn to 2D convection models with Newtonian temperature-dependent viscosity to provide representative vertical and lateral temperature variations. We invert for the conductivity-depth structure and then temperature gradient. For a dry Venus, we find that the error on temperature gradient obtained from any single local measurement is ～100%—perhaps enough to distinguish “thick” vs. “thin” lithospheres. When averaging over thousands of kilometers, however, the standard deviation of the recovered thermal gradient is within the natural variability of the convection models, <25%. A “wet” interior (hundreds of ppm H₂O) limits EM sounding depths using the Schumann resonances to <20 km, and errors are too large to estimate lithospheric properties. A 30-km conductive crust has little influence on the dry-interior models because the Schumann penetration depths are significantly larger. We conclude that EM sounding of the interior of Venus is feasible from a 55-km high balloon. Lithospheric thickness can be measured if the upper-mantle water content is low. If H₂O at hundreds of ppm is present, the deeper, temperature-sensitive structure is screened, but the “wet” nature of the upper mantle, as well as structure of the upper crust, is revealed.