Integrating hydrologic modeling and land use projections for evaluation of hydrologic response and regional water supply impacts in semi-arid environments

Semi-arid environments are generally more sensitive to urbanization than humid regions in terms of both hydrologic modifications and water resources sustainability. The current study integrates hydrologic modeling and land use projections to predict long-term impacts of urbanization on hydrologic behavior and water supply in semi-arid regions. The study focuses on the Upper Santa Clara River basin in northern Los Angeles County, CA, USA, which is undergoing rapid and extensive development. The semi-distributed Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) model is parameterized with land use, soil, and channel characteristics of the study watershed. Model parameters related to hydrologic processes are calibrated at the daily time step using various spatial configurations of precipitation and parameters. Potential urbanization scenarios are generated on the basis of a regional development plan. The calibrated (and validated) model is run under the proposed development scenarios for a 10 year period. Results reveal that increasing development increases total annual runoff and wet season flows, while decreases are observed in existing baseflow and groundwater recharge during both dry and wet seasons. As development increases, medium-sized storms increase in both peak flow and overall volume, while low and high flow events (extremes) appear less affected. Urbanization is also shown to decrease natural recharge and, when considered at the regional scale, may result in a loss of critical water supply to Southern California. The current study provides a coupled framework for a decision support tool that can guide efforts involved in regional urban development planning and water supply management.     

Paleoecology of late-glacial terrestrial deposits with in situ conifers from the submerged continental shelf of western canada

Extensive portions of the continental shelf off the coast of British Columbia were subaerially exposed during Late Wisconsinan deglaciation due to lowering of relative sea level by as much as 150 m. Paleoecological analyses were conducted at two sites on the emergent continental shelf where terrestrial surfaces with in situ conifers are preserved. The woody plant remains confirm that, during the latest period of subaerial exposure, terrestrial vegetation was established on the continental shelf. Microscopic identification of fossil wood, and analyses of pollen and plant macrofossils from the associated paleosols and overlying shallow pond sediments indicate that productive Pinus contorta-dominated communities with abundant Alnus crispa and ferns grew on the shelf adjacent to and on the Queen Charlotte Islands around 12,200 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Dwarf shrubs including Salix and Empetrum, and herbaceous plants such as Heracleum lanatum and Hippuris vulgaris, were also important components of the shelf vegetation. Near northern Vancouver Island, mixed coniferous forests dominated by Pinus contorta with Picea, Tsuga spp., Alnus spp., and ferns occupied the shelf at 10,500 ¹⁴C yr B.P.     

Time-based correlation of biogenic,lithogenic and authigenic sediment components with anthropogenic inputs in the Gulf of Mexico NECOP study area

Hypotheses related to variability in seasonal hypoxic conditions, coastal nutrient enhancement, and off-shelf transport of carbon on the Louisiana continental shelf were tested by characterization of biogenic, lithogenic, and authigenic components from two shelf and one Mississippi Canyon sediment cores. The authigenic-phase glauconite occurs above detection limits only in the core from the hypoxic area. A major increase in glauconite concentration was coincident with the onset (≈1940) of the increased use of commercial fertilizers in the United States. In the same hypoxic-area core, benthic foraminifera species diversity decreases upcore from approximately the turn of the century to the present in a manner concurrent with glauconite and fertilizer increases. A subset of opportunistic benthic foraminifera species, known to become more prominent in stressed environments (i.e., hypoxic), increased upcore from ～52% of the total population at core bottom to ≈90% at core top. These benthic foraminifera population and diversity changes were not apparent in a “control” core outside the area of documented hypoxia. Seaward of the shelf, in the Mississippi Canyon, coincident increases in sediment accumulation rate, percentages of coarse fraction and of organic carbon at core top indicate increased offshelf transport of carbon and other components. Quartz percentages indicate that episodic down-canyon transport has been active to core bottom (prior to the mid 1800s).     

Impact of lateral flow and spatial scaling on the simulation of semi‐arid urban land surfaces in an integrated hydrologic and land surface model

Understanding and representing hydrologic fluxes in the urban environment is challenging because of fine scale land cover heterogeneity and lack of coherent scaling relationships. Here, the impact of urban land cover heterogeneity, scale, and configuration on the hydrologic and surface energy budget (SEB) is assessed using an integrated, coupled land surface/hydrologic model at high spatial resolutions. Archetypes of urban land cover are simulated at varying resolutions using both the National Land Cover Database (NLCD; 30 m) and an ultra high‐resolution land cover dataset (0.6 m). The analysis shows that the impact of highly organized, yet heterogeneous, land cover typical of the urban domain can cause large variations in hydrologic and energy fluxes within areas of similar land cover. The lateral flow processes that occur within each simulation create variations in overland flow of up to ±200% and ±4% in evapotranspiration. The impact on the SEB is smaller and largely restricted to the wet season for our semi‐arid forcing scenarios. Finally, we find that this seasonal bias, predominantly caused by lateral flow, is displaced by a systematic diurnal bias at coarser resolutions caused by deficiencies in the method used for scaling of land surface and hydrologic parameters. As a result of this research, we have produced land surface parameters for the widely used NLCD urban land cover types. This work illustrates the impact of processes that remain unrepresented in traditional high‐resolutions land surface models and how they may affect results and uncertainty in modeling of local water resources and climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Episodic intraplate deformation of stable continental margins: evidence from Late Neogene and Quaternary marine terraces,Cape Liptrap,Southeastern Australia

The Waratah Fault is a northeast trending, high angle, reverse fault in the Late Paleozoic Lachlan Fold Belt at Cape Liptrap on the Southeastern Australian Coast. It is susceptible to reactivation in the modern intraplate stress field in Southeast Australia and exhibits Late Pliocene to Late Pleistocene reactivation. Radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), and cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) dating of marine terraces on Cape Liptrap are used to constrain rates of displacement across the reactivated Waratah Fault. Six marine terraces, numbered Qt₆–Tt₁ (youngest to oldest), are well developed at Cape Liptrap with altitudes ranging from ～1.5 m to ～170 m amsl, respectively. On the lowest terrace, Qt₆, barnacles in wave-cut notches ～1.5 m amsl, yielded a radiocarbon age of 6090–5880 Cal BP, and reflect the local mid-Holocene sea level highstand. Qt₅ yielded four OSL ages from scattered locations around the cape ranging from ～80 ka to ～130 ka. It formed during the Last Interglacial sea level highstand (MIS 5e) at ～125 ka. Inner edge elevations (approximate paleo high tide line) for Qt₅ occur at distinctly different elevations on opposite sides of the Waratah Fault. Offsets of the inner edges across the fault range from 1.3 m to 5.1 m with displacement rates ranging from 0.01 mm/a to 0.04 mm/a. The most extensive terrace, Tt₄, yielded four Early Pleistocene cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) ages: two apparent burial ages of 0.858 Ma ± 0.16 Ma and 1.25 Ma ± 0.265 Ma, and two apparent exposure ages of 1.071 Ma ± 0.071 Ma (¹⁰Be) and 0.798 Ma ± 0.066 Ma (²⁶Al). Allowing for muonic production effects from insufficient burial depths, the depth corrected CRN burial ages are 1.8 Ma ± 0.56 Ma and 2.52 Ma ± 0.88 Ma, or Late Pliocene. A Late Pliocene age is our preferred age. Offsets of Tt₄ across the Waratah Fault range from a minimum of ～20 m for terrace surface treads to a maximum of ～70 m for terrace bedrock straths. Calculated displacement rates for Tt₄ range from 0.01 mm/a to 0.04 mm/a (using a Late Pliocene age, ～2 Ma), identical to the rates calculated for the Last Interglacial terrace, Qt₅. This indicates that deformation at Cape Liptrap has been ongoing at similar time-averaged rates at least since the Late Pliocene. The upper terraces in the sequence, Tt₃ (～110 m amsl), Tt₂ (～140 m) and Tt₁ (～180 m) are undated, but most likely correlate to sea level highstands in the Neogene. Terraces Tt1–Tt4 show an increasing northward tilt with age.The Waratah Fault forms a prominent structural boundary in the Lachlan Fold Belt discernible from airborne magnetic and bouger gravity anomalies. Seismicity and deformation are episodic. Episodic movement on the Waratah Fault may be coincident with sea level highstands since the Late Pliocene, possibly from increased loading and elevated pore pressure within the fault zone. This suggests that intervals between major seismic events could be on the order of 100 ka.     

Mimicking state diplomacy: The legitimizing strategies of unofficial diplomacies

Diplomacy and recognition play central roles in the conventional conferral of state legitimacy and functioning of the inter-state system. In broadening the diplomatic frame by stepping outside the conventional state-system, this paper brings a poststructuralist and performative toolkit to mimetic diplomatic practices. Adapting Bhabha’s notion of mimicry to diplomatic discourse, it demonstrates how non-state diplomacies draw on, mimic and intervene in the realm of formal political action in ways which both promote ‘official’ state diplomacy as an ideal and dilute its distinction from other, ‘unofficial’ diplomacies. In thereby examining the enactment of international diplomacy in unexpected spaces, this paper brings together three empirical studies: a Government-in-Exile, a religious community and micropatrias (self-declared parodic nations). In each of these cases, attention focuses on: discourses of recognition; sovereignty and legitimacy; the diplomatic relationships fostered and institutions of diplomacy constructed; and the strategic position of such diplomacy vis-à-vis the conventional state-system. Unpacking the relationship between legitimacy, recognition and diplomacy and exploring the tension between state-centric and non-state diplomatic practices, this paper foregrounds the points of connection between the official and the unofficial. As a result, this paper expands the analytical gaze of diplomacy studies while incorporating lessons from the margins into our understandings of legitimacy, recognition, statecraft and sovereignty.     

Paleoecological analyses of lake sediments reveal prehistoric human impact on forests at Anthony Island UNESCO World Heritage Site, Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii), Canada

Pollen and plant macrofossil analyses of lake sediments from Anthony Island in the southern Queen Charlotte Islands (Haida Gwaii), British Columbia, reveal 1800 yr of relatively stable temperate rainforest vegetation. Cupressaceae (cedar) pollen percentages and accumulation rates decline about 1000 cal yr BP, coincident with occupation of the island by Haida peoples, who use Thuja plicata (western red cedar) almost exclusively for house construction, dugout canoes, monumental poles, and many other items. Anthropogenic disturbance offers the most likely explanation for the decline of T. plicata.     

Distributions of copepod nauplii and turbulence on the southern flank of Georges Bank: implications for feeding by larval cod (Gadus morhua)

The vertical distributions of copecod nauplii and water properties were sampled at well-mixed and stratified sites on Georges Bank using a pumping system, CTD and in vivo fluorometer during a four day period in late May 1992. At each stratified station at least one sample was taken within the thermocline and the fluorescence maximum, which usually co-occurred. Well-mixed sites had low average concentrations of nauplii, ca 41⁻¹, and showed little variation of abundance with depth. Stratified sites had from 4 to 16 times the integrated (0–50 m) abundance of nauplii compared to well-mixed sites and showed strong vertical patterns of distribution. Maximum concentrations of nauplii, up to 1601⁻¹, were associated with the thermocline at 7 of the 9 stratified stations. At the two remaining stratified sites the naupliar maximum was in the upper mixed layer, sampled at 5 m depth. The encounter rate between early feeding cod (Gadus morhua) larvae and their naupliar prey was calculated with and without turbulence. Turbulence was estimated from two sources: wind stress in the upper layer (calculated from wind observations during our cruise) and tidal shear in the lower layer (estimated initially from a tidal mixing equation). We ultimately replaced the lower layer estimates with turbulence data from a series of measurements made in 1995. The latter are more robust and had the advantage of providing dissipation rates for the pycnocline as well as the lower layer. Theory predicts an increase in encounters between a predator and its prey with the addition of turbulence parameters into standard models of encounter. We combined turbulence profiles with the vertical distribution of nauplii to examine the potential contribution of turbulent kinetic energy to predator-prey encounter rates at various depths in stratified and mixed water columns. Our calculations suggest the following increases due to turbulence at stratified sites on Georges Bank during our cruise: from 34 to 219% in the upper mixed layer, depending on wind speed and depth; approximately 8% in the pycnocline; and approximately 110% below the pycnocline. Mixed sites experience increases of at least 110% (tide only), but greater increases (118–192% in this study) occur when the wind blows because of the combined (spatially overlapped) effects of wind and tidal mixing at these sites. The absolute values for encounter rates and their modification by turbulence are sensitive to a number of assumptions in the models. We used a series of stated assumptions to generate estimates that range from 0.6 to 26.5 prey h⁻¹, depending on geographical location, physical forcing and depth.     

Urban irrigation in the modeling of a semi-arid urban environment: Ballona Creek watershed,Los Angeles,California

ABSTRACT

Ballona Creek watershed in Los Angeles, California provides a unique combination of heterogeneous urban land cover, a semi-arid environment, and a large outdoor water-use flux that presents a challenge for physically-based models. We ran simulations using the Noah Land Surface Model and Parflow-Community Land Model and compared to observations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and land surface temperature (LST) for the entire 11-year study period. Both models were systematically adjusted to test the impact of land cover and urban irrigation on simulation results. Monthly total runoff and ET results are greatly improved when compared to an in-situ stream gauge and meteorological tower data: from 0.64 to 0.81 for the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for runoff and from a negative NSE to 0.82 for ET. The inclusion of urban irrigation in semi-arid urban environments is found to be vital, but not sufficient, for the accurate simulation of variables in the studied models.     

Linking hydrology and stream geochemistry in urban fringe watersheds

Urbanization represents a dramatic example of human interference with the hydrological cycle. Changes to ground cover affect both the hydrological and geochemical characteristics in a watershed. Ecosystem degradation also occurs in undisturbed watersheds at the “urban fringe” due to regional atmospheric deposition. These urban fringe catchments can also serve as an upstream source of various chemical constituents into downstream (urban) river systems. The current study focuses on the impacts of regional urbanization in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed located on the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin, where estimates of dry deposition are considered some of the highest in North America. Collected hydrologic, geochemical and atmospheric data were assessed at seasonal time scales to evaluate current hydrochemical dynamics. Stream water chemical composition in the upper Arroyo Seco watershed exhibits significant seasonal variability, particularly for . Almost all study solutes show dilution behavior. However, hydrologically enhanced behavior was observed for with increased concentrations during the wet season. Seasonal stream concentration–discharge relationships were developed using a hyperbolic dilution model. The developed model was then used to predict concentrations for observational gaps in stream water chemical composition, allowing for seasonal and annual mass loadings to be estimated for the downstream urban stream. The hydrological signal in the resultant chemical loads is extremely strong, especially during the wet season. Both observations and model predictions indicate the watershed is a sink for atmospheric nitrate and a source for various cations.