Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.     

Soil gas radon concentrations along the Ganos Fault (GF)

In this study, soil radon levels have been measured for the first time across the Ganos fault (GF), which is known as the western part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. LR 115 Type 2 Solid State Nuclear Track Detectors (time integrated) have been applied to determine soil gas radon levels, and the survey was performed in 16 stations along the fault line. The results showed that soil gas radon concentrations and variation of concentration levels are comparable high along the fault line. It is also observed that in the middle of the Ganos Fault, fairly elevated radon levels were detected. These can be related to the activity of the fault lines. It is confirmed that the study area has a very active tectonic structure and is great location for analyzing radon variations.     

Middle Pleistocene bivalves of the İznik lake basin (Eastern Marmara, NW Turkey) and a new paleobiogeographical approach

?znik Lake is a tectonically originated basin mainly controlled by the E–W trending middle strand of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) system. Pleistocene sediments occurring in front of the faults are well exposed both in the northern and in the southern shorelines of the basin. In this study, two endemic brackish water bivalve species, Didacna subpyramidata Pravoslavkev 1939 and Didacna nov. sp. were found in the oldest terrace of the northern Pleistocene sequence. Having characterized morphology, these species serve as stratigraphic indicators in the regional Pleistocene stratigraphy of the Ponto-Caspian region, and thus are well correlated to the assemblages of the early Khazarian subhorizon (Middle Pleistocene). Hence, these data demonstrate that the early Khazarian brackish water sea covered the study area. Additionally, a model for the formation of the basin is proposed: the ?znik lake basin was a gulf of the former Marmara Sea in the early Khazarian, connecting the Marmara to the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. The subsequent regional prograding uplifts, main dextral strike-slip fault and many normal faults of the NAF Zone cut off the marine connections to the basin, leading to its present location and topographic level.     

Monitoring of fault healing after the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake

The North Anatolian fault zone that ruptured during the mainshock of theM 7.4 Kocaeli (Izmit) earthquake of 17 August 1999 has beenmonitored using S wave splitting, in order to test a hypothesisproposed by Tadokoro et al. (1999). This idea is based on the observationof the M 7.2 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, Japan.After the Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, a temporal change was detectedin the direction of faster shear wave polarization in 2–3 years after the mainshock (Tadokoro, 1999). Four seismic stations were installed within andnear the fault zone at Kizanlik where the fault offset was 1.5 m, about80 km to the east of the epicenter of the Kocaeli earthquake. Theobservation period was from August 30 to October 27, 1999. Preliminaryresult shows that the average directions of faster shear wave polarization attwo stations were roughly parallel to the fault strike. We expect that thedirection of faster shear wave polarization will change to the same directionas the regional tectonic stress reflecting fault healing process. We havealready carried out a repeated aftershock observation at the same site in2000 for monitoring the fault healing process.     

Dynamic sub-surface characteristic and the active faults of the Genç District locating over the Bingöl Seismic Gap of the East Anatolian Fault Zone,Eastern Turkey

The Genç District is located on the Bingöl Seismic Gap (BSG) of the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ) with its?~?34.000 residents. The Karl?ova Triple Junction, where the EAFZ, the North Anatolian Fault Zone, and the Varto Fault Zone meet, is only 80 km NE of the Genç District. To make an earthquake disaster damage prediction of the Genç District, carrying a high risk of disaster, we have (1) prepared a new geological map, and (2) conducted a single-station microtremor survey. We defined that three SW-NE trending active faults of the sinistral Genç Fault Zone are cutting through the District. We have obtained dominant period (T) as?<?0.2 s, the amplification factor (A) between 8 and 10, the average shear wave velocity for the first 30 m (Vs₃₀) as?<?300 m/s, and the seismic vulnerability index (Kg) as?>?20, in the central part of the Genç District. We have also prepared damage prediction maps for three bedrock acceleration values (0.25, 0.50, 0.75 g). Our earthquake damage prediction scenarios evidenced that as the bedrock acceleration values increase, the area of soil plastic behavior expands linearly. Here we report that if the average expected peak ground acceleration value (0.55–0.625 g) is exceeded during an earthquake, significant damage would be inevitable for the central part of the Genç District where most of the schools, mosques, public buildings, and hospitals are settled-down.

     

Key pluvial parameters in assessing rainfall erosivity in the south-west development region,Romania

Located in the south-western part of Romania, the south-west development region overlaps the main relief forms: the Carpathians mountains, the Getic Subcarpathians, the Getic piedmont, the Romanian plain and the Danube valley. The study aims at providing an overview on the main pluvial parameters and their role in assessing rainfall erosivity in the study area. The authors assessed the occurrence, frequency and magnitude of some of the most significant pluvial parameters and their impact on the climatic aggressiveness in the study area. Thus, the monthly and annual mean and extreme climatic values for different rainfall related parameters (e.g., maximum amounts of precipitation/24 hr, heavy rainfall), as well as relevant indices and indicators for pluvial aggressiveness (Fournier, Fournier Modified, Angot) were calculated. The rainfall erosivity was assessed in order to provide both the spatial distribution of the triggering extreme weather phenomena and the resulted intensity classes for the analysed indices and indicators. The authors used long-term precipitation records (1961–2010) for the selected relevant meteorological stations distributed throughout all analysed relief units.     

Measured and perceived visual complexity: a comparative study among three online map providers

We present a study on human perception of map complexity, with the objective of better understanding design decisions that may lead to undesirable levels of complexity in web maps. We compare three complexity metrics to human ratings of complexity obtained through a user survey. Specifically, we use two algorithmic approaches published by others, which measure feature congestion (FC) and subband entropy (SE), as well as our own approach of counting object types rather than individual objects. We compare these metrics with each other as well as with human complexity ratings for three maps of the same area from map providers Google Maps, Bing Maps, and OpenStreetMap. Each map design is assessed at three different scales (levels of detail). We find that (1) the FC and SE metrics appear to be adequate predictors of what humans consider complex; (2) object-type counts are slightly less successful at predicting human-rated complexity, implying that clutter is more important in perceived complexity than diversity of symbology; and (3) generalization choices do impact human complexity ratings. These findings contribute to our understanding of what makes a map complex, with implications for designing maps that are easy to use.     

Historical evidence of climate change impact on drought outlook in river basins: analysis of annual maximum drought severities through daily SPI definitions

In the context of major outcomes of a steadily changing climate, extreme climatic conditions and the associated events in various forms of weather-related natural disasters, e.g. droughts, floods, and heat waves, are more frequently experienced on the global scale in recent years. In support of this argument, there are adequate numbers of explicit signals over such a persistent outlook, which is greatly illustrated by historical data and observations. This study, which is mainly oriented to investigating the drought behaviour in Thracian, Aegean and Mediterranean transects of Turkey's major river basins, is actually inspired by the foreseen potential of using annual maximum drought severity series (based on drought definition through the standardized precipitation index (SPI)) within a framework that resembles the use of flood discharge directly from flow measurements in a river basin. To this end, a series of spatial analyses were employed to identify different aspects of flood appearance in the study extent, including trend views on annual average drought severity series, shifts in the starting time of the annually most severe flood periods, and changes in spatial coverage views of average drought conditions under different drought severity categories. The framework of the analytical approaches depends greatly on validated international datasets and open-source computational algorithms. The results from the analyses that were conducted in two consecutive periods of 1958–1980 and 1981–2004 revealed that Turkey's western and southern river basin systems seemed to have experienced quite different behaviours between the two periods in terms of drought severity magnitudes, drought durations and annual occurrence times.

     

Hydrogeochemical evaluation of Umut geothermal field (SW Turkey)

Tekkehamam geothermal field is located in the South of Menderes Graben (Aegean region) and is one of the most important geothermal sites of Western Anatolia. Umut geothermal field is a part of the Tekkehamam field. This study was conducted in order to determine the origin and hydrogeochemical properties of the geothermal waters. For this purpose, sampling was done in order to check the chemistry of the water, and ¹⁸O, ²H isotope analyses done at four wells, nine natural springs and three cold water sources. According to the results of the chemical analysis, the geothermal waters were determined to be of Na + K-SO₄ type. Additionally, ¹⁴C and ³H analyses were done in selected well and spring waters for the purpose of age determination of groundwater; most of the waters were determined to be submodern. Geothermometer calculations show that the reservoir temperature for the Umut geothermal field ranges between 148 and 180 °C. Stable isotope results indicate that Umut geothermal waters are meteoric in origin. Mixing between shallow and deep waters is the dominant subsurface process that determines the physical and chemical character of the waters.