Forecast of the key parameters of the 24-th solar cycle

To predict the key parameters of the solar cycle,a new method is proposed based on the empirical law describing the correlation between the maximum height of the preceding solar cycle and the entropy of the forthcoming one.The entropy of the forthcoming cycle may be estimated using this empirical law,if the maximum height of the current cycle is known.The cycle entropy is shown to correlate well with the cycle's maximum height and,as a consequence,the height of the forthcoming maximum can be estimated.In turn,the correlation found between the height of the maximum and the duration of the ascending branch(the Waldmeier rule)allows the epoch of the maximum,Tmax,to be estimated,if the date of the minimum is known.Moreover,using the law discovered,one can find out the analogous cycles which are similar to the cycle being forecasted,and hence,obtain the synoptic forecast of all main features of the forthcoming cycle.The estimates have shown the accuracy level of this technique to be 86%.The new regularities discovered are also interesting because they are fundamental in the theory of solar cycles and may provide new empirical data.The main parameters of the future solar cycle 24 are as follows: the height of the maximum is Wmax = 95±20,the duration of the ascending branch is Ta = 4.5±0.5 yr,the total cycle duration according to the synoptic forecast is 11.3 yr.     

The influence of halo assembly on galaxies and galaxy groups

In this paper, we study the variations of group galaxy properties according to the assembly history in Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 (SDSS-DR6) selected groups. Using mock SDSS group catalogues, we find two suitable indicators of group formation time: (i) the isolation of the group, defined as the distance to the nearest neighbour in terms of its virial radius and (ii) the concentration, measured as the group inner density calculated using the fifth nearest bright galaxy to the group centre. Groups within narrow ranges of mass in the mock catalogue show increasing group age with isolation and concentration. However, in the observational data the stellar age, as indicated by the spectral type, only shows a correlation with concentration.
We study groups of similar mass and different assembly history, finding important differences in their galaxy population. Particularly, in high-mass SDSS groups, the number of members, mass-to-light ratios, red galaxy fractions and the magnitude difference between the brightest and second-brightest group galaxies, show different trends as a function of isolation and concentration, even when it is expected that the latter two quantities correlate with group age. Conversely, low-mass SDSS groups appear to be less sensitive to their assembly history.
The correlations detected in the SDSS are not consistent with the trends measured in the mock catalogues. However, discrepancies can be explained in terms of the disagreement found in the age-isolation trends, suggesting that the model might be overestimating the effects of environment. We discuss how the modelling of the cold gas in satellite galaxies could be responsible for this problem. These results can be used to improve our understanding of the evolution of galaxies in high-density environments.     

The distribution of late-Quaternary woody taxa in northern Eurasia: evidence from a new macrofossil database

We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23° to 180°E and 46° to 76°N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene.     

晚震旦世至早寒武世扬子地台北缘碳同位素研究

震旦-寒武交变期是地史上一个重大转折期,亦是一个具有特殊意义的过渡时期。运用碳同位素地球化学方法,探讨扬子地台北缘四川南江地区晚震旦世-早寒武世交变期,碳同位素地球化学异常与环境变化和生物演化的相互联系。南江剖面沉积岩有机碳同位素组成在-35．8‰～-30．1‰间变化;碳酸盐碳同位素组成从-3．5‰～ 0．5‰。在灯影组顶部、牛蹄塘组下部和上部,变化的碳、硫同位素组成和不同的黄铁矿与有机碳含量反映了有机碳埋藏量和环境的变化。下寒武统富有机碳和黄铁矿的黑色页岩沉积,暗示了早寒武世早期缺氧环境的存在。     

Seismic reliability‐based ductility demand evaluation for inelastic base‐isolated structures with friction pendulum devices

The aim of this work is to propose seismic reliability‐based relationships between the strength reduction factors and the displacement ductility demand of nonlinear structural systems equipped with friction pendulum isolators (FPS) depending on the structural properties. The isolated structures are described by employing an equivalent 2dof model characterized by a perfectly elastoplastic rule to account for the inelastic response of the superstructure, whereas, the FPS behavior is described by a velocity‐dependent model. An extensive parametric study is carried out encompassing a wide range of elastic and inelastic building properties, different seismic intensity levels and considering the friction coefficient as a random variable. Defined a set of natural seismic records and scaled to the seismic intensity corresponding to life safety limit state for L'Aquila site (Italy) according to NTC08, the inelastic characteristics of the superstructures are designed as the ratio between the average elastic responses and increasing strength reduction factors. Incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) are developed to evaluate the seismic fragility curves of both the inelastic superstructure and the isolation level assuming different values of the corresponding limit states. Integrating the fragility curves with the seismic hazard curves related to L'Aquila site (Italy), the reliability curves of the equivalent inelastic base‐isolated structural systems, with a design life of 50 years, are derived proposing seismic reliability‐based regression expressions between the displacement ductility demand and the strength reduction factors for the superstructure as well as seismic reliability‐based design (SRBD) abacuses useful to define the FPS properties. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

贵州瓮安陡山沱组剖面碳同位素生物地球化学研究

在对扬子地台贵州瓮安陡山沱组剖面干酪根碳同住素组成进行分析后发现其变化显示了一定的规律性。碳同住素规律变化反映了最初的沉积信息,特别是有机质埋藏量的变化。获得的陡山沱期沉积岩中碳同位素组成研究结果初步反映了震旦一寒武交变期沉积环境的面貌;碳同位素组成变化规律可以用于反映扬子地台沉积层序和世界同期地层全球碳循环的对比和参考。为扬子区陡山沱期环境变化和生物演化提供了证据。δ^13Cker值在-32．3‰和-24．5‰(PDB)间漂移与δ^13Ccarb值在-4．9‰和3．6‰(PDB)间的变化,反映了当时海水的碳同位素组成。无机和有机碳同位素组成之差的△δorg-carb值沿剖面不断变化,是由于沉积有机质中有促进发酵功能的细菌数量比例变化所致。     

Decentralized water supply by reservoir network reduces power demand for water distribution in a semi-arid basin

In the Brazilian semi-arid region, thousands of small dams have been built over time to enhance water availability, accumulating water and hydraulic energy at high altitudes. Simulations were performed in this study to assess how the arrangement of reservoirs impacts on the power demand for water distribution in the Banabuiú River Basin (19?800 km²), Brazil. The power required to pump water from 1405 reservoirs to all districts with diffuse demands is 6.5 GWh/year, whereas in the scenario with only the 12 larger strategic reservoirs, the power demand reached 45.3 GWh/year. Alone, the largest reservoir in the basin can supply water to all districts. Nonetheless, in that scenario, the power demand would reach 195 GWh/year, which is 30 times the power required in the real reservoir arrangement. Thus, decentralization by small reservoirs not only promotes more democratic access to water, but also increases energy efficiency by storing it at higher altitudes and closer to the diffuse demands.     

The impact of glaciation, river-discharge and sea-level change on Late Quaternary environments in the southwestern Kara Sea

Sedimentary records from the southwestern Kara Sea were investigated to better understand the extent of the last glaciation on the Eurasian Arctic shelf, sea-level change, and history of the Ob' and Yenisey river discharge. Sediment-core and seismic-reflection data indicate that the Quaternary depositional sequence in the southwestern Kara Sea consists of glacial, glaciomarine, and marine sedimentary units. Glaciogenic sediments in the deep Novaya Zemlya Trough are presumably related to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), whereas further east they may represent an earlier glaciation. Thus, it is inferred that the southeastern margin of the LGM Barents-Kara ice sheet was contained in the southwestern Kara Sea east of the Novaya Zemlya Trough. Changes in mineralogical, foraminiferal, and stable-isotopic composition of sediment cores indicate that riverine discharge strongly influenced sedimentary and biotic environments in the study area during the Late Weichselian and early Holocene until ca. 9 ka, consistent with lowered sea levels. Subsequent proxy records reflect minor changes in the Holocene hydrographic regime, generally characterized by reduced riverine inputs.     

Organic Carbon Isotope Geochemistry of the Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation, South China

The Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation on the Yangtze Platform, South China, documents a sedimentary succession with different sedimentary facies from carbonate platform to slope and to deep sea basin, and hosts one of the world-class phosphorite deposits. In these strata, exquisitely preserved fossils have been discovered： the Weng＇an biota. This study presents carbon isotope geochemistry which is associated paired carbonate and organic matter from the Weng＇an section of a carbonate platform （shelf of the Yangtze Platform, Guizhou Province） from the Songtao section and Nanming section of a transition belt （slope of the Yangtze Platform, Guizhou Province） and from the Yanwutan section （basin area of the Yangtze Platform, Hunan Province）. Environmental variations and bio-events on the Yangtze Platform during the Late Neoproterozoic and their causal relationship are discussed. Negative carbon isotope values for carbonate and organic carbon （mean δ^13Corg = -35.0‰） from the uppermost Nantuo Formation are followed by an overall increase in δ^13C up-section. Carbon isotope values vary between -9.9‰ and 3.6‰ for carbonate and between -35.6‰ and -21.5‰ for organic carbon, respectively. Heavier δ^13Ccarb values suggest an increase in organic carbon burial, possibly related to increasing productivity （such as the Weng＇an biota）. The δ^13C values of the sediments from the Doushantuo Formation decreased from the platform via the slope to basin, reflecting a reduced environment with minor dissolved inorganic carbon possibly due to a lower primary productivity. It is deduced that the classical upwelling process, the stratification structure and the hydrothermal eruption are principally important mechanisms to interpret the carbon isotopic compositions of the sediments from the Doushantuo Formation.     

The precession phase of hydrological variability in the Western Pacific Warm Pool during the past 400 ka

The low-latitude hydrological cycle is a key climate parameter on different timescales, as it contributes to various feedback processes. Modelling studies suggest that the interhemispheric insolation contrast is the major factor controlling the cycle, although the influence of glacial conditions and the phase relationships relative to insolation forcing remain undetermined. In this work, we studied precipitation variability over Papua New Guinea (PNG, 3°S) for the past 400 ka using terrigenous fractions transported by the Sepik River to the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A multi-decadal to centennial resolution of the elemental content was obtained using X-ray fluorescence scanning of a marine sediment core using an age model based on ¹⁴C dates and benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O. Indicators of the coarse river particulate fraction (bulk and CaCO₃-free basis Ti concentrations, the log intensity ratios of Ti/K and Ti/Ca) displayed a dominant 23 ka periodicity without a clear glacial–interglacial trend. Our precipitation records showed a tight relationship with local summer insolation (3°S, January) with time-dependent lag of 0 to 4 ka. They were generally in anti-phase for U–Th dated Chinese speleothem δ¹⁸O records. Based on an analogy to modern climate, we propose that precipitation over PNG was primarily determined by interhemispheric insolation contrast, and the contribution of austral fall/winter precipitation added second-order variability that formed the lags. For the last four climate cycles, the WPWP hydrological cycle was closely associated with the eastern Asian monsoon, and the influence of glacial conditions on the low-latitude hydrological cycle was estimated to be limited.