Coastal risk management: How to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk?

Coastal flood risk is defined as a product of probability of event and its effect, measured in terms of damage. The paper is focused on coastal management strategies aimed to decrease risk by decreasing potential damage. We review socio-economic literature to show that total flood damage depends on individual location choices in the housing market and on individual flood risk awareness. Low flood risk awareness leads to inefficient spatial developments and increased flood risk. We show that personal experience, risk communication, financial instruments like insurance from flooding and technical instruments like building on high elevations, are factors that increase individual risk awareness. Evidence that these factors indeed affect housing prices and land use patterns is provided. We discuss proactive instruments that can be used in coastal zone management in the Netherlands to increase individual risk awareness. We argue that policy-makers may create incentives giving individuals a possibility to make location choices that lead to less total flood risk in the coastal zone area.     

Identification of Icelandic tephras from the last two millennia in the White Sea region (Vodoprovodnoe peat bog,northwestern Russia)

The generation of reliable age models for palaeoenvironmental and archaeological records in the Eurasian Arctic is often problematic when using conventional dating techniques. Tephrochronology can potentially improve the chronologies of such records and synchronise disparate sedimentary archives. However, to date, systematic tephra studies are lacking for this region. This paper presents the first cryptotephra data from the White Sea region (northwestern Russia) based on a peat core spanning the past ~1800 years. We identify seven geochemical glass populations that derive from six Icelandic volcanoes and correlate four of them to north European tephra isochrons; these include Askja ad 1875, the basaltic component of the ad 877 Landnám tephra, and tephras BTD-15 (c. ad 1750–1650) and SL-2/SB-2 (ad 803–767) from unknown eruptions of Katla and Snæfellsjökull, respectively. The remaining three populations originate from Grímsvötn, Hekla and Katla; however, their attribution to individual eruptions remains ambiguous. These findings highlight the potential to extend the Late Holocene tephrochronological framework of northern Europe to the west Eurasian Arctic. The detection of at least three basaltic tephras in the core suggests that basaltic shards can be transported over larger distances than previously known and that peatlands are well suited to preserve such components.     

Carbon emission trading and carbon taxes under uncertainties

The idea of market-based carbon emission trading and carbon taxes is gaining in popularity as a global climate change policy instrument. However, these mechanisms might not necessarily have a positive outcome unless their value reflects socioeconomic and environmental impacts and regulations. Moreover, the fact that they have various inherent exogenous and endogenous uncertainties raises serious concerns about their ability to reduce emissions in a cost-effective way. This paper aims to introduce a simple stochastic model that allows the robustness of economic mechanisms for emission reduction under multiple natural and human-related uncertainties to be analyzed. Unlike standard equilibrium state analysis, the model shows that the explicit introduction of uncertainties regarding emissions, abatement costs, and equilibrium states makes it almost impossible for existing market-based trading and carbon taxes to be environmentally safe and cost-effective. Here we propose a computerized multi-agent trading model. This can be viewed as a prototype to simulate an emission trading market that is regulated in a decentralized way. We argue that a market of this type is better equipped to deal with long-term emission reductions, their direct regulation, irreversibility, and “lock-in” equilibria.     

Testing the Response of Mycenaean Terracotta Figures and Vessels to Earthquake Ground Motions

In the late 1970s, the hypothesis originated that earthquakes played a decisive role in the decline of the Mycenaean civilization at the end of the Late Bronze Age. The late excavator of Tiryns in the Argolid/Greece, Klaus Kilian, presented evidence for earthquake‐related damage to Mycenaean structures and considered four terracotta figures and two ceramic vessels lying on a floor of a potential cult room (later 12th century B.C.) in the Lower Citadel as “earthquake victims.” The broken figures were confined to a small area on the cult room's floor in front of a bench. We assess the archaeological data and test the plausibility of earthquake‐induced toppling of the objects with engineering seismological models. Dimensions and physical properties of the models were taken from the originals. In our simulations the models are virtually placed on a bench, and are exposed to earthquake ground motions based on records from recent Greek earthquakes. We test the artifacts’ toppling behavior and compare the final position of the fallen objects with the original find spots. Statistical analysis of 74,250 model calculations with highly varied ground motion parameters and bench heights reveal only a small probability that the find situation of the objects was caused by an earthquake.     

Organic and trace metal contaminants in sediments and English sole tissues from Vancouver Harbour,Canada

As part of a multinational workshop on marine environmental quality, sediments were collected from seven sites in Vancouver Harbour and analyzed for polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and organochlorines (OCs), and for trace metals. English sole were collected from five sites, and muscle was analyzed for trace metals and liver for OCs. As expected, sediment PAH and OC concentrations and tissue OC concentrations were higher at sites east of the First Narrows, compared to the outer harbor and reference sites. Sediment PAH concentrations east of the First Narrows were similar to concentrations at moderately contaminated sites in Puget Sound, south of Vancouver Harbour. In contrast, concentrations of OCs in sediments and tissue were low to moderate, even at relatively contaminated sites within Vancouver Harbour. Although several trace metals in sediments were higher than in contaminated sediments from Puget Sound, trace metals measured in fish muscle were lower.     

Caveats on tomographic images

Geological and geodynamic models of the mantle often rely on joint interpretations of published seismic tomography images and petrological/geochemical data. This approach tends to neglect the fundamental limitations of, and uncertainties in, seismic tomography results. These limitations and uncertainties involve theory, correcting for the crust, the lack of rays throughout much of the mantle, the difficulty in obtaining the true strength of anomalies, choice of what background model to subtract to reveal anomalies, and what cross‐sections to select for publication. The aim of this review is to provide a relatively non‐technical summary of the most important of these problems, collected together in a single paper, and presented in a form accessible to non‐seismologists. Appreciation of these issues is essential if final geodynamic models are to be robust, and required by the scientific observations.     

The Vicência meteorite fall: A new unshocked (S1) weakly metamorphosed (3.2) LL chondrite

The Vicência meteorite, a stone of 1.547 kg, fell on September 21, 2013, at the village Borracha, near the city of Vicência, Pernambuco, Brazil. It was recovered immediately after the fall, and our consortium study showed it to be an unshocked (S1) LL3.2 ordinary chondrite. The LL group classification is based on the bulk density (3.13 g cm^?3); the chondrule mean apparent diameter (0.9 mm); the bulk oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁷O = 3.768 ± 0.042‰, δ¹⁸O = 5.359 ± 0.042‰, Δ¹⁷O = 0.981 ± 0.020‰); the content of metallic Fe,Ni (1.8 vol%); the Co content of kamacite (1.73 wt%); the bulk contents of the siderophile elements Ir and Co versus Au; and the ratios of metallic Fe⁰/total iron (0.105) versus total Fe/Mg (1.164), and of Ni/Mg (0.057) versus total Fe/Mg. The petrologic type 3.2 classification is indicated by the beautifully developed chondritic texture, the standard deviation (~0.09) versus mean Cr₂O₃ content (~0.14 wt%) of ferroan olivine, the TL sensitivity and the peak temperature and peak width at half maximum, the cathodoluminescence properties of chondrules, the content of trapped ¹³²Xe_tr (0.317 × 10^?8cm³STP g^?1), and the Raman spectra for organic material in the matrix. The cosmic ray exposure age is ~72 Ma, which is at the upper end of the age distribution of LL group chondrites. The meteorite is unusual in that it contains relatively large, up to nearly 100 μm in size, secondary fayalite grains, defined as olivine with Fa_>75, large enough to allow in situ measurement of oxygen and Mn‐Cr isotope systematics with SIMS. Its oxygen isotopes plot along a mass‐dependent fractionation line with a slope of ~0.5 and Δ¹⁷O of 4.0 ± 0.3‰, and are similar to those of secondary fayalite and magnetite in the unequilibrated chondrites EET 90161, MET 96503, and Ngawi. These data suggest that secondary fayalite in Vicência was in equilibrium with a fluid with a Δ¹⁷O of ~4‰, consistent with the composition of the fluid in equilibrium with secondary magnetite and fayalite in other unequilibrated ordinary chondrites. Secondary fayalite and the chondrule olivine phenocrysts in Vicência are not in isotopic equilibrium, consistent with low‐temperature formation of fayalite during aqueous alteration on the LL parent body. That alteration, as dated by the ⁵³Mn‐⁵³Cr chronology age of secondary fayalite, took place $4.0{}_{?1.1}^{+1.4}$ Ma after formation of CV CAIs when anchored to the quenched angrite D'Orbigny.     

Region-based classification of PolSAR data using radial basis kernel functions with stochastic distances

Region-based classification of PolSAR data can be effectively performed by seeking for the assignment that minimizes a distance between prototypes and segments. Silva et al. [“Classification of segments in PolSAR imagery by minimum stochastic distances between wishart distributions.” IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 6 (3): 1263–1273] used stochastic distances between complex multivariate Wishart models which, differently from other measures, are computationally tractable. In this work we assess the robustness of such approach with respect to errors in the training stage, and propose an extension that alleviates such problems. We introduce robustness in the process by incorporating a combination of radial basis kernel functions and stochastic distances with Support Vector Machines (SVM). We consider several stochastic distances between Wishart: Bhatacharyya, Kullback-Leibler, Chi-Square, Rényi, and Hellinger. We perform two case studies with PolSAR images, both simulated and from actual sensors, and different classification scenarios to compare the performance of Minimum Distance and SVM classification frameworks. With this, we model the situation of imperfect training samples. We show that SVM with the proposed kernel functions achieves better performance with respect to Minimum Distance, at the expense of more computational resources and the need of parameter tuning. Code and data are provided for reproducibility.     

An assessment of changes in properties of steppe kurgan paleosoils in relation to prevailing climates over recent millennia

Comparative analysis of morphological and chemical properties of the soil chronosequence on Kastanozems soils in the steppe zone of the Russian Plain, which included paleosoils buried beneath kurgans erected ca. 2000 BC, AD 50, AD 200, and AD 1250 was performed to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions in this archeologically important region. Paleoenvironmental dynamics were traced using the state of microbial communities of paleo and modern soils (including the dynamics of total and glucose-reactive biomass, and the abundance of microorganisms grown on selected media). We demonstrate that the share of the glucose-reactive microorganisms in the microbial community, the ecological–trophic structure, and oligotrophicity index might serve as indicators of the state of microbial communities and be used for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The morphological–chemical and microbial properties confirm an arid period ca. 2000 BC, slightly wetter conditions ca. AD 50, and more humid conditions ca. AD 1250.     

Propagation of brittle failure triggered by magma in Iceland

The architectures of normal faults at a divergent plate boundary in Iceland are examined by combining surface fault observations with cross-sectional studies at different structural levels to constrain a model of failure propagation. The structures of Holocene faults defining graben are analyzed to characterize the upper-most parts of ruptures. The shapes of faults resulting from growth and interaction of separate segments are used to better understand failure propagation inferred to occur in the intervening stages of displacement accumulation and lateral propagation. Pleistocene faults in volcanic sequences exhumed from 800 to 1000 m are analyzed to characterize deeper portions of failure that occurred beneath the central rift zone. Tertiary dikes exhumed from depths of 1300–1500 m are studied to infer how magma controls the failure initiation. Field studies in combination with a literature review indicate that the planar ruptures are likely to initiate at depth as magma-filled vertical fractures and lengthen upward and laterally. As failures propagate to higher crustal levels, they are likely to change into inclined normal faults. At near-surface levels, faults link with cooling joints and dilational fractures propagating downward from the surface. It is suggested that the inferred stages of fault propagation are characteristic for normal faults developed at spreading ridges.