Runup Characteristics of Symmetrical Solitary Tsunami Waves of “Unknown” Shapes

The problem of tsunami wave runup on a beach is discussed in the framework of the rigorous solutions of the nonlinear shallow-water theory. We present an analysis of the runup characteristics for various shapes of the incoming symmetrical solitary tsunami waves. It will be demonstrated that the extreme (maximal) wave characteristics on a beach (runup and draw-down heights, runup and draw-down velocities and breaking parameter) are weakly dependent on the shape of incident wave if the definition of the “significant” wavelength determined on the 2/3 level of the maximum height is used. The universal analytical expressions for the extreme wave characteristics are derived for the runup of the solitary pulses. They can be directly applicable for tsunami warning because in many cases the shape of the incident tsunami wave is unknown.     

Can the Waves Generated by Fast Ferries be a Physical Model of Tsunami?

The potential of long ship-induced waves to serve as a physical model for tsunami waves (called simply tsunami below) is examined. Such waves (wavelengths more than 200 m at depths down to 10–20 m) are induced by high-speed ferries sailing at near-critical speeds in semisheltered, relatively shallow areas. It is shown based on experience from Tallinn Bay, Baltic Sea, that for many aspects these waves can model nearshore dynamics and runup of tsunami caused by landslides, including processes of wave refraction, diffraction, and sea-bottom interaction in bays and harbors. Many governing nondimensional parameters (such as the nonlinearity, dispersion, Reynolds and Ursell numbers, surf similarity parameter, breaking parameter, etc.) of the largest ship waves and landslide tsunamis have the same order of magnitude. It is especially important that use of ship waves for wave propagation and runup studies allows their spatial structure to be accounted for adequately. Near-critical ship waves can therefore be used as a natural substitute for tsunami, for study under controlled and safe conditions.     

Sensitivity Analysis of Discharge in the Arctic Usa Basin, East-European Russia

The high sensitivity of the Arctic implies that impact of climate change and related environmental changes on river discharge can be considerable. Sensitivity of discharge to changes in precipitation, temperature, permafrost and vegetation, was studied in the Usa basin, Northeast-European Russia. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (RHINEFLOW) was adapted. Furthermore, the effect of climate change simulated by a GCM (HADCM2S750 integration) on runoff was assessed, including indirect effects of permafrost thawing and changes in vegetation distribution. The study shows that discharge in the Usa basin is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature. The effect of precipitation change is present throughout the year, while temperature changes affect discharge only in seasons when temperature fluctuates around the freezing point (April and October). Discharge is rather sensitive to changes in vegetation. Sensitivity to permafrost occurrence is high in winter, because infiltration and consequently base flow increases if permafrost melts. The effect of climate change simulated by the scenario on discharge was significant. Peak flow can both decrease (by 22%) and increase (by 19%) comparedwith present-day, depending on the amount of winter precipitation. Also, runoff peaks earlier in the season. These results can have implications for the magnitude and timing of the runoff peak, break-up and water-levels.     

Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

Modelling environmentally friendly fairways using Lagrangian trajectories: a case study for the Gulf of Finland,the Baltic Sea

We address possibilities of minimising environmental risks using statistical features of current-driven propagation of adverse impacts to the coast. The recently introduced method for finding the optimum locations of potentially dangerous activities (Soomere et al. in Proc Estonian Acad Sci 59:156–165, 2010) is expanded towards accounting for the spatial distributions of probabilities and times for reaching the coast for passively advecting particles released in different sea areas. These distributions are calculated using large sets of Lagrangian trajectories found from Eulerian velocity fields provided by the Rossby Centre Ocean Model with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles for 1987–1991. The test area is the Gulf of Finland in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The potential gain using the optimum fairways from the Baltic Proper to the eastern part of the gulf is an up to 44% decrease in the probability of coastal pollution and a similar increase in the average time for reaching the coast. The optimum fairways are mostly located to the north of the gulf axis (by 2–8 km on average) and meander substantially in some sections. The robustness of this approach is quantified as the typical root mean square deviation (6–16 km) between the optimum fairways specified from different criteria. Drastic variations in the width of the ‘corridors’ for almost optimal fairways (2–30 km for the average width of 15 km) signifies that the sensitivity of the results with respect to small changes in the environmental criteria largely varies in different parts of the gulf.     

Vertical movements on the territory of Tallinn

Studies based on repeat levelling performed in the city of Tallinn show local earth surface deformations in the area of ancient valleys buried under quaternary sediments. Until 1964, the highest rate of sinking (up to 30 mm/year) was observed in the area south of Tallinn Old Port until Liivalaia Street. The maps of vertical movements drawn up on the basis of earlier levelling data indicate local sinking in the region of the city centre since 1951. From 1964 onwards, the intensity of the sinking has been steadily decreasing. The data obtained from the latest levelling works show that the sinking of the area under study has stopped or reversed into rising (up to +0.4 mm per year). Sinking of Tallinn is connected with the geological structure and ground water level.     

Dissolved organic matter dynamics during the spring snowmelt at a boreal river valley mire complex in Northwest Russia

Boreal mire landscapes are rich in soil carbon and significantly contribute to the carbon input of aquatic ecosystems. They are composed of different mesoscale ecohydrological subunits, whose individual contributions to the water and carbon export of mire catchments are not well understood. The spring snowmelt period is the major hydrological event in the annual water cycle of the boreal regions and strongly influences the carbon flux between the terrestrial and aquatic systems. The aim of this study was (1) to provide a conceptual understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the surface water chemistry along a swamp forest‐fen‐bog gradient during the snowmelt period, (2) to quantify the exported dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content in the runoff and (3) to identify the ecohydrological landscape unit that contributes most to DOC export during the snowmelt period in a heterogeneous mire complex in Northwest Russia. The highest DOC concentrations were detected in the swamp forest, and the lowest concentrations were observed at the treeless bog by the end of the snowmelt period (swamp forest: 37–43 mg l^?1, bog: 13–17 mg l^?1). During the spring snowmelt period, a significant amount (~1.7 g C m^?2) of DOC was transferred by the ~74 mm of runoff from the catchment into the river. Variability in the thawing periods led to differences in the relative contributions of each ecohydrological zone to the carbon export measured at a stream channel draining the studied part of the mire complex. An increased understanding of the variation in DOC concentrations and contributions from the mesoscale ecohydrological subunits to carbon export can help to predict the potential regional loss of DOC based on land cover type under climate change. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.