Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Effect of farmland expansion on drought over the past century in Songnen Plain,Northeast China

The effects of human activities on climate change are a significant area of research in the field of global environmental change. Land use and land cover change(LUCC) has a greater effect on climate than greenhouse gases, and the effect of farmland expansion on regional drought is particularly important. From the 1910 s to the 2010 s, cultivated land in Songnen Plain increased by 2.67 times, the area of cultivated land increased from 4.92×10~4 km~2 to 13.14×10~4 km~2, and its percentage of all land increased from 25% to 70%. This provides an opportunity to study the effects of the conversion of natural grassland to farmland on climate. In this study, the drought indices in Songnen Plain were evaluated from the 1910 s to the 2010 s, and the effect of farmland expansion on drought was investigated using statistical methods and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model based on UK's Climatic Research Unit data. The resulting dryness index, Palmer drought severity index, and standardized precipitation index values indicated a significant drying trend in the study area from 1981 to 2010. This trend can be attributed to increases in maximum temperature and diurnal temperature range, which increased the degree of drought. Based on statistical analysis and simulation, the maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, and sensible heat flux increased during the growing season in Songnen Plain over the past 100 years, while the minimum temperature and latent heat flux decreased. The findings indicate that farmland expansion caused a drying trend in Songnen Plain during the study period.     

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

移动GIS在传染病防控方面的应用——以COVID-19为例

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情的出现和暴发流行,给社会、经济及人群健康提出巨大的挑战,已经成为重大公共卫生事件和社会问题。作为一种新发传染病,提早发现、迅速采用有效应对举措,是防止病毒蔓延扩散的重要环节。地理信息系统（GIS）在传染病的控制、预防、预警中有举足轻重的地位,移动GIS（Mobile GIS）作为GIS技术的发展,进一步提高了我国卫生部门应对突发传染病的能力。本文以COVID-19防控为例,重点介绍了移动GIS技术在传染病防控中的应用。     

X波段高分辨率SAR数据土石坝表面相干性时序变化分析

本文以深圳公明水库6个中小型土石坝为试验区,利用10景1 m分辨率升降轨X波段TerraSAR影像和坝体附近连续气象站的降雨量数据,研究了坝体表面相干性的时序变化与雷达本地入射角及降雨的关系。试验结果表明,混凝土面板和草坡平均相干性均会随本地入射角增加而减小,同时,草坡表面平均相干性在有微小降雨的情况下就会快速下降0.1~0.2,差分干涉图的噪声增大;混凝土面板对微小的降雨敏感度小,但是在暴雨情况下将导致其表面完全失相干。上述结果表明,针对中小土石坝坡体变形监测应当顾及坝体的坡度及入射角选择合适的雷达成像参数,同时应充分利用降雨资料评估干涉图失相干情况,剔除噪声数据。     

青岛市生态环境变化遥感监测与分析

城市化进程不断加快带来一系列生态环境问题,本文利用植被指数、湿度指数、地表温度、建筑物—裸土指数定量表征绿度、湿度、热度、干度4个生态要素指标,通过主成分分析法,建立遥感生态指数模型,并从时间和空间两个维度对比分析2013、2019年两个时期遥感生态指数。结果表明,青岛市生态环境呈局部优化改进、整体下降趋势;同时,将青岛市遥感生态指数与人类活动相关的地表覆盖变化数据、路网交通数据、夜光数据进行耦合性分析,进一步分析探寻生态环境变化的影响因子。     

测绘地物波谱本底数据库

地物波谱特性是利用遥感进行建模反演和地物目标探测识别的理论基础,波谱数据库对于提高遥感应用水平有重要作用。为规范和丰富中国波谱数据库并促进其在测绘等领域的应用,依托国家科技性基础专项,建立了“测绘地物波谱本底数据库”,在数据规范编制、波谱数据采集实验与整编入库、地物波谱数据库建设和应用示范初步探索方面取得重要进展。在波谱数据采集和处理的标准规范方面,建立完善了测绘地物波谱与配套非波谱数据收集与汇总标准、测绘地物波谱和配套非波谱参数测试技术规范、测绘地物波谱库地物分类编码规范。依照项目制定的数据规范标准,对现有波谱数据进行了整编和入库,共计整编数据1.4万余条;组织实施了全国范围的典型地物波谱采集实验以及相应配套参数测量实验,主要试验类型包括典型地物波谱测量试验、定点时间序列测量试验、多尺度测量试验、全波段测量试验、参数控制测量试验和无人机观测试验等,共计获取地物波谱1.7万余条。特别是在华北和东北进行了全波段观测试验（可见光—近红外波（0.35—2.5 μm）、红外波段（3—15 μm）、微波波段（Ka、K、X、C、L波段））,获取冰雪、土壤、植被冠层、人工目标的全波段数据。为方便波谱数据的应用和共享,项目建设了包含3万余条数据的测绘地物波谱本底数据库（GOSPEL）及数据共享平台。依据地物波谱数据的类型和应用需求,形成了全波段典型地物波谱数据集、多角度光谱反射率数据集、多尺度典型地物反射率数据集、长时间系列波谱数据集等共25个特色数据集。基于测绘地物波谱本底数据库进行了地物分类、遥感机理模拟、遥感定量反演、遥感产品验证等方面的应用示范。     

基于MODIS数据的湖北省地级以上城市城区地表温度变化分析

基于MODIS数据,以湖北省地级以上城市城区为研究对象,通过对湖北省13个地级以上城市城区边界矢量数据与地表温度因子进行套合处理,采用叠置分析方法对2000、2015、2017年湖北省地级以上城市城区的地表温度进行统计,并分析城镇化建设对城区地表温度产生的影响。     

莱州湾大型底栖动物群落结构及其动态变化特征

本文以莱州湾2009年夏季(8月)、秋季(10月)及2010年春季(5月)、夏季(8月)4个季节大型底栖动物资料为基础,对莱州湾大型底栖动物的种类组成、丰度、生物量、优势种进行了研究,同时与历史资料进行对比,探讨了莱州湾大型底栖动物的群落结构特征及动态变化。4个航次中共鉴定出大型底栖动物272种,其中包括环节动物多毛类122种,软体动物46种,甲壳动物64种,棘皮动物18种,鱼类9种,其他类13种。调查海域平均丰度为(1102.56 ± 216.32) ind./m2, 多毛类在丰度上占绝对优势;平均生物量为(28.16 ± 8.45) g/m2,软体动物占据优势。丰度和生物量空间分布规律具有很强的相似性,低值区位于莱州湾西部黄河口邻近海域,高值区位于渤海中部海域。丰度和生物量季节变化明显,夏季最高,秋季其次,春季最低。多毛类不倒翁虫(Sternaspis sculata)、寡鳃齿吻沙蚕(Nephthys oligobranchia)、紫壳阿文蛤(Alvenius ojianus)等是莱州湾调查海域的优势种。通过与历史资料的对比发现,莱州湾大型底栖动物种类组成及优势种类出现小型化的趋势。