The Gravity Field of the Vogtland and NW Bohemia: Presentation of a Project

The Vogtland and NW Bohemia are characterized geoscientifically by periodically occurrence of swarm earthquakes. The basic geophysical mechanism is not yet sufficiently clarified, just like detail questions to geology in especially the deeper underground. Complex geophysical investigations in the seismoactive region indicate geodynamic phenomena like mass redistribution or stress accumulation and release (Spiák et al., 1998). According to Grünthal (1989) a weakness zone is suggested in the region of the swarm earthquakes. This zone can be caused by fluid-tectonics (Kämpf et al., 1992), a mantle plume (pers. com. J. Svancara, 1999) and/or by the geometry of the geological structures (Neunhöfer & Güth, 1988). A three-dimensional gravimetric model can clear up the underground situation. By means of high-resolution gravimetry a three-dimensional model will be developped for the Vogtland and NW Bohemia region. In the first step a homogeneous Bouguer map of the Vogtland and NW Bohemia was created (fig. 1) containing gravity structures analysed by Ibrmajer & Suk (1989) and Blízkovsky et al. (1985). The used gravimetric data were made available by the Saxonian National Office for Environment and Geology, by the Czech Geological Survey, Prague and by the GGA Hannover. In the context with the interpretation of the deep-seismic profile MVE 90 a two-dimensional gravimetric modeling was carried out (Behr et al., 1994), too. Anomaly-producing source bodies apparently do not offer themselves in a two-dimensional model, because after Jung (1961) the length of a gravimetric source structure must be about four times larger than it's width. The technique of the three-dimensional gravimetric modeling by means of any polyhedrons was developed by Götze (1976, 1984). Gravimetry is a potential method and supplies an infinite number of solutions, so the model has to be developed close to other geoscientific results. The aim is to construct a high-resolution three-dimensional underground model, which includes the upper earth's crust and the deep-seated structures of the middle and lower crust, too. The determination of the mass distribution in the underground supplies contradicting or supporting facts for geodynamic views in the Vogtland and NW Bohemia for example of Bankwitz et al. (1993). The interpretation of the Bouguer map of the Vogtland and a three-dimensional gravimetric model ought to contribute a substantial, also geodynamic part to understand the origin and the emergence of the swarm earthquakes in this region.     

Straightforward methods to detect non-linear response of the soil. Application to the recordings of the Kobe earthquake (Japan, 1995)

Simple straightforward methods are applied to testtheir ability to detect the non-linear response of thesoil. Recordings of the main shock and aftershocks ofthe 1995, Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake are used.Non-linear effects are investigated using twodifferent techniques, on a collection of data for 12sites situated on different geological structures inthe Kobe and Osaka areas. The first method used is theso-called receiver functions technique (Langston,1979), which consists of computing the spectral ratiobetween horizontal and vertical components of motion.This ratio has been shown to reveal the fundamentalfrequency of a site (Lachet and Bard, 1994; Lachet etal., 1996; Theodulidis et al., 1995, 1996). For eachsite, recordings of the main shock and a set ofaftershocks are considered. The variation of thisspectral ratio for different values of the maximumacceleration recorded at a site is investigated. Bothvariations of the amplitude of the H/V ratio (due tonon-linear behavior, on the horizontal components inparticular) and of the frequency position of theamplified band-width are observed. The secondtechnique used in this study is related to thevariation of the high frequency content of therecordings during the main-shock and its aftershocks.The high frequency spectral decay of the motion,characterized by parameter, is assumed to berelated mainly to the near-surface attenuation. Itshould then increase with increasing peak velocity, incase of non-linearity. The value of kappa iscalculated for the 12 sites in the Kobe area, fordifferent types of soil conditions, and againdifferent values of peak ground acceleration.Variations of kappa are then related to non-linearbehavior of the soil during the Kobe earthquake.     

Hydrogeochemical Precursors in Kamchatka (Russia) Related to the Strongest Earthquakes in 1988–1997

The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes up to 8.5) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been collected with a mean sampling frequency of three days in the form of the flow rate and the most common ions and gases in the groundwater of three deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula, where the capital city Petropavlovsk is located. Beginning in 1988, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 occurred in this area. These earthquakes were powerful enough to be considered as potential precursor sources in the sense that the stresses and strains building up before them might be expected to cause precursory activity. In order to reveal any possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the hydrogeochemical data collected. We considered any signal having an amplitude three times the standard deviation to be an irregularity and we defined as an anomaly the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. Then, on the basis of the worldwide past results and the time recurrence of the quoted earthquakes, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. We identified some premonitory anomalies in hydrogeochemical parameters at different wells. On the basis of these results some earthquake forecasting criteria in southern Kamchatka may be tentatively formulated     

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.     

Effects of variable attribute weights on landform classification

This paper focuses on the attribute weight issue and advocates use of modi?able attribute weights in terrain‐based environmental analysis and classi?cation. A question was asked: ‘How much will the result of a terrain‐based environmental analysis be affected if the weights of used terrain attributes are changed?’ The literature on landform classi?cation and the fuzzy k‐means method was reviewed in particular to help clarify the background and importance of this weight assignment issue. As an example, the effects of modifying attribute weights were evaluated for fuzzy k‐means landform classi?cation in a case study area. A total of 102 classi?cations were compared with each other and with a soil map, and comparison methods were speci?cally designed to evaluate the differences between these classi?cations. The results show that fuzzy k‐means landform classi?cation is sensitive to weight adjustments of adopted terrain attributes. The sensitivity is particularly high when the attribute weights started to be tuned away from the standard (i.e. uniform) weight of one. Better matching between landform classi?cation and a soil map may be produced when attribute weights are tuned. In all, we advocate the widespread adoption of an exploratory attitude in assigning attribute weights for environmental analysis and classi?cation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用场地观测计算地表通量

高原地表的感热和潜热通量在亚洲季风系统中有很重要的作用。由于高原地域辽阔，且自然环境较严酷，不利于建立完善的地面观测系统。因此，卫星遥感观测就成为测算高原整体感热和潜热通量的有效工具。地面场地的观测结果作为地表通量的真实值，对于卫星遥感测算是非常重要的。它也为构建陆面—大气模型提供了科学依据，是卫星资料的资料同化系统中的重要组成部分。 计算场地热量通量有几种不同的处理方法。最简单的方法利用有效的观测和试验的参数，可以给出稳定连续的估计。愈精确的Bowen比或者廓线的观测能给出愈精确的信息。综合了湍流测量及辐射测量、土壤热通量的观测结果的估计对陆面—大气相互作用进行了详细的描述，以适应模式的发展。从1998年开始，这些方法联合应用到青藏高原；场地通量观测方面的成果以及目前对其理解将在本文中做一概述。     

方向数据插值方法研究

方向数据是矢量数据的标量表示,通常标量数据的插值方法不适用于方向数据。本文根据方向数据的特征,把其分解成沿坐标轴的分量,通过对分量数据的插值形成表面,最后合成反算出方向数据,给出了一种对于方向数据的行之有效的插值方法;并用实验进行了验证,对其插值结果和精度进行了统计和分析,取得了较为理想的内插结果。     

线性体图像自动矢量化算法研究

依据线性体图像的特点,提出了一种最大长度原则下基于端点提取的自动跟踪矢量化算法。该算法通过对节点及其信息进行提取快速抓住线性体的总体拓扑结构,并以节点信息为指导对线性体进行矢量跟踪和直线提取解决了复杂的线性体交叉问题。算法具有精度高、抗噪性好和适应性强的特点。     

一次强飑线天气过程的新一代天气雷达探测和临近预报

利用位于桂林的新一代天气雷达资料对2005年5月5日影响广西桂林的锋前强飑线过程进行了详细的分析。分析飑线整体演变和内部对流单体演变表明:此飑线为后续线型和断续线型的结合。由镶嵌在飑线中的小尺度超级单体造成对流性大风。对流单体并入飑线前,可发展为成熟的超级单体,有TBSS和BWER等特征,垂直累积液态水含量可达70kg·m-2,造成局地大冰雹。可根据VIL值确定大多数强风暴位置和辨别带有大冰雹的风暴,对强对流天气做临近预报。     

气候变化与北疆北部2000年特大雪灾的必然性及预测

利用1960～2003年新疆阿勒泰地区7测站及塔城地区北部5测站当年11月至次年1月,44a气温、降水资料,研究了北疆北部冬季气候变化特征,解释了2000年该地区冬季特大雪灾极端气候事件出现的必然性,最后探讨了该地区冬季降水的预测问题;并得出一点很有意义的结论:在气候增暖、增湿背景下,特大雪灾也是可以预报的。