1983年菏泽5.9级地震前地下流体异常分布特征及其有关问题讨论

全面、系统地分析研究了菏泽５．９级地夺前地下流体异常时空分布及其场兆、源兆特征。结果表明,异常空间分布与活动构造密切相关,断裂端部和交汇处是异常响应的第三地区。单位面积异常台项数,震中及附近地区远高于外围地区。震前１个月左右,异常台项月频次大幅度增高,单项异常的时间演化有持续型、完整型和突跳型三种类型。源兆异常具有中期、短期、临震异常配套、水化我组分同步异常变化、宏观异常多点成片、持续时间长、幅度     

遗传规划在岩石力学中的应用

本文探讨了遗传规划这一新的优化方法在岩石力学参数确定中的应用。由于影响岩石力学性能的各因素之间关系不明确,而遗传规划特别适用于各影响因素之间因果关系不明确的复杂非线性问题。它为预测岩石力学性能提供了一条新的技术途径。通过例子,说明该方法的实用性。     

贵金属资源的应用及开发

将贵金属的应用,资源分布,生产和贵金属的分析化学结合在一起进行了综述,由于贵金属资源的短缺性及考虑可持续发展战略,特别介绍了贵金属资源的二次回收问题,并对其将来的发展作了一定的评价和展望。     

中国地区地震P波和S波走时表的实用检验

中国地区地震P波和S波走时表实测地震的效果如何?本文给出了一系列地震的实测结果,对比J—B表和其他走时表分析表明,建立在中国地区实际观测数据所独立算出的中国地区地震波走时表,更适合于实际情况,用以测定中国地区震中的参数具有较高的精确度。     

QUATERNARY FOLDING OF THE XIHU ANTICLINE BELT ALONG FORELAND BASIN OF NORTH TIANSHAN

Tianshan is one of the longest and most active intracontinental orogenic belts in the world. Due to the collision between Indian and Eurasian plates since Cenozoic, the Tianshan has been suffering from intense compression, shortening and uplifting. With the continuous extension of deformation to the foreland direction, a series of active reverse fault fold belts have been formed. The Xihu anticline is the fourth row of active fold reverse fault zone on the leading edge of the north Tianshan foreland basin. For the north Tianshan Mountains, predecessors have carried out a lot of research on the activity of the second and third rows of the active fold-reverse faults, and achieved fruitful results. But there is no systematic study on the Quaternary activities of the Xihu anticline zone. How is the structural belt distributed in space?What are the geometric and kinematic characteristics?What are the fold types and growth mechanism?How does the deformation amount and characteristics of anticline change?In view of these problems, we chose Xihu anticline as the research object. Through the analysis of surface geology, topography and geomorphology and the interpretation of seismic reflection profile across the anticline, we studied the geometry, kinematic characteristics, fold type and growth mechanism of the structural belt, and calculated the shortening, uplift and interlayer strain of the anticline by area depth strain analysis.
In this paper, by interpreting the five seismic reflection profiles across the anticline belt, and combining the characteristics of surface geology and geomorphology, we studied the types, growth mechanism, geometry and kinematics characteristics, and deformation amount of the fold. The deformation length of Xihu anticline is more than 47km from west to east, in which the hidden length is more than 14km. The maximum deformation width of the exposed area is 8.5km. The Xihu anticline is characterized by small surface deformation, simple structural style and symmetrical occurrence. The interpretation of seismic reflection profile shows that the deep structural style of the anticline is relatively complex. In addition to the continuous development of a series of secondary faults in the interior of Xihu anticline, an anticline with small deformation amplitude(Xihubei anticline)is continuously developed in the north of Xihu anticline. The terrain high point of Xihu anticline is located about 12km west of Kuitun River. The deformation amplitude decreases rapidly to the east and decreases slowly to the west, which is consistent with the interpretation results of seismic reflection profile and the calculation results of shortening. The Xihu anticline is a detachment fold with the growth type of limb rotation. The deformation of Xihu anticline is calculated by area depth strain analysis method. The shortening of five seismic reflection sections A, B, C, D and E is(650±70) m, (1 070±70) m, (780±50) m, (200±40) m and(130±30) m, respectively. The shortening amount is the largest near the seismic reflection profile B of the anticline, and decreases gradually along the strike to the east and west ends of the anticline, with a more rapidly decrease to the east, which indicates that the topographic high point is also a structural high point. The excess area caused by the inflow of external material or outflow of internal matter is between -0.34km² to 0.56km². The average shortening of the Xihubei anticline is between(60±10) m and(130±40) m, and the excess area caused by the inflow of external material is between 0.50km² and 0.74km². The initial locations of the growth strata at the east part is about 1.9~2.0km underground, and the initial location of the growth strata at the west part is about 3.7km underground. We can see the strata overlying the Xihu anticline at 3.3km under ground, the strata above are basically not deformed, indicating that this section of the anticline is no longer active.     

On the evolution of finite-amplitude disturbance to the barotropic and baroclinic quasigeostrophic flows

ＯｎｔｈｅＥｖｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｏｆＦｉｎｉｔｅ－ａｍｐｌｉｔｕｄｅＤｉｓｔｕｒｂａｎｃｅｔｏｔｈｅＢａｒｏｔｒｏｐｉｃａｎｄＢａｒｏｃｌｉｎｉｃＱｕａｓｉｇｅｏｓｔｒｏｐｈｉｃＦｌｏｗｓ①ＭｕＭｕ（穆穆）ａｎｄＸｉａｎｇＪｉｅ（项杰）ＬＡＳＧ,Ｉｎｓｔ...     

1980～1994年台湾海峡两岸的地热涡与降水季度预报初探

利用１９８０～１９９４年大陆３．２ｍ深度和台湾３．０ｍ深度的地温资料,分析了１５ａ来的逐季地气图,统计了台湾海峡两岸的地热涡活动,发现平均每季有１个地热涡活动,其水平尺度比大陆内部的地热涡要小,生命史也要短,进入台湾地区的地热涡绝大多数是从西方和北方进入,其移动速度比大陆内部的要快得多。９０％以上的地热涡在同期有多雨区与其对应,热涡中心与多雨中心相距在１００ｋｍ以内者占６８％。最后给出了一个季度降水的定性预测方案,其步骤为：预报地热涡的中心位置、强度和水平尺度;推算降水正距平区的水平尺度、中心位置和强度;根据本区发生的地震等情况进行预报订正。     

一次弓状降雹回波区流场的反演

通过对一次典型弓状降雹回波区的流场进行反及特点分析,发现用矩不变量法反演出的回波区流场结构,与藤田关于弓状回波的概念模式非常吻合,利用该方法估测出的流场,散度场、涡度场所表现出的信息,与降雹实况是一致的,该研究可为中小尺度强天气的监测,提供高时空分辨率的流场资料。     

一种以能量平衡为基础的干旱指数

本文以能量平衡公式为基础,根据实际蒸发与潜在蒸发的关系依赖于土壤水分含量的事实,导出一种表达干湿状况的指标——土壤水分干旱指数。     

A study of arctic sea ice and sea‐level pressure using POP and neural network methods

Abstract

We examine Arctic sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and sea‐level pressure (SLP) data using principal oscillation pattern (POP) and neural network methods. The POP method extracts oscillating patterns from multivariate time series, each pattern being characterized by an oscillation period and a decay time. Predictions can be made for patterns whose decay time is comparable with the period. For both the SIC and SLP, however, the decay times are much shorter than the oscillation periods, and therefore the forcast skill is poor. A neural network is a model of the learning behaviour of a living neural system. Presented with training data, a neural network can learn the linear or non‐linear rules embedded in the data. We trained neural networks with sea‐ice and sea‐level pressure data, and estimated the forecast skill using a cross‐validation technique. The neural networks did not exhibit forecast skill significantly better than that of persistence. We contrast the Arctic situation with previous studies in which POP and neural networks were successfully used to forecast El Niño at lead times up to 6 months. Reasons for the lack of skill in both methods are discussed.