长江三峡大宁河流域3000年来的环境演变与人类活动

长江三峡大宁河流域张家湾东周-汉代古遗址的孢粉学和沉积学等分析结果表明3000年来该区环境演变与人类活动的互动影响，连续的孢粉和粒度记录证实，该区古人类活动初期处于暖湿的气候，东周-汉代时期转变为温凉略干的温带气候，东周-汉代后，该区经历了一次规模较大的大宁河洪水泛滥期，导致汉代文化层中断。此后不久，由于人类活动剧烈，自然植被严重破坏，水土流失比较严重，山洪灾害频繁，导致汉代之后该区没有连续的文化层堆积，而由于人类活动剧烈，自然植被严重破坏，水土流失比较严重，山洪灾害频繁，导致汉代之后该区没有连续的文化层堆积，而由于短暂洪水暴发引起大面积坡面片流，导致坡积物的大量堆积，汉代之后该区频繁的兴涝灾害和山洪灾害体现了人地关系的复杂性。     

安徽齐云山丹霞地貌成因

According to the study of some local scholars (Peng Hua et al., 2000), over 400 sites of Danxia landform have been already discovered in China. Chen Guoda (1935), Zeng Zhaoxuan et al. (1978), Huang Jin et al. (1992; 1994; 1996) and Peng Hua et al. (1998; …     

Population,urbanization and economic scenarios over the Belt and Road region under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The countries throughout the Belt and Road region account for more than 60% of the world's population and half of the global economy. Future changes in this area will have significant influences on the global economic growth, industrial structure and resource allocation. In this study, the proportion of the urban population to the total population and the gross domestic product were used to represent the levels of urbanization and economic development, respectively. The population, urbanization and economic levels of the Belt and Road countries for 2020–2050 were projected under the framework of the IPCC's shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), and the following conclusions are drawn.(1) The population, urbanization and economic levels in the Belt and Road region will likely increase under all five pathways. The population will increase by 2%–8%/10 a during 2020–2050 and reach 5.0–6.0 billion in 2050. Meanwhile, the urbanization rate will increase by 1.4%–7.5%/10 a and reach 49%–75%. The GDP will increase by 17%–34%/10 a and reach 134–243 trillion USD.(2) Large differences will appear under different scenarios. The SSP1 and SSP5 pathways demonstrate relatively high urbanization and economic levels, but the population size is comparatively smaller; SSP3 shows the opposite trend. Meanwhile, the economy develops slowly under SSP4, but it has a relatively high urbanization level, while SSP2 exhibits an intermediate trend.(3) In 2050, the population will increase relative to 2016 in most countries, and population size in the fastest growing country in Central Asia and the Middle East countries will be more than double. Urbanization will develop rapidly in South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, and will increase by more than 150% in the fastest growing countries. The economy will grow fastest in South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia, and increase by more than 10 times in some counties with rapid economic development.     

Effects of land use and cultivation time on soil organic and inorganic carbon storage in deep soils

The vertical distribution and exchange mechanisms of soil organic and inorganic carbon(SOC, SIC) play an important role in assessing carbon(C) cycling and budgets. However, the impact of land use through time for deep soil C(below 100 cm) is not well known. To investigate deep C storage under different land uses and evaluate how it changes with time, we collected soil samples to a depth of 500 cm in a soil profile in the Gutun watershed on the Chinese Loess Plateau(CLP); and determined SOC, SIC, and bulk density. The magnitude of SOC stocks in the 0–500 cm depth range fell into the following ranking: shrubland(17.2 kg m~(-2)) grassland(16.3 kg m~(-2)) forestland(15.2 kg m~(-2)) cropland(14.1 kg m~(-2)) gully land(6.4 kg m~(-2)). The ranking for SIC stocks were: grassland(104.1 kg m~(-2)) forestland(96.2 kg m~(-2)) shrubland(90.6 kg m~(-2)) cropland(82.4 kg m~(-2)) gully land(50.3 kg m~(-2)). Respective SOC and SIC stocks were at least 1.6-and 2.1-fold higher within the 100–500 cm depth range, as compared to the 0–100 cm depth range. Overall SOC and SIC stocks decreased significantly from the 5 th to the 15 th year of cultivation in croplands, and generally increased up to the 70 th year. Both SOC and SIC stocks showed a turning point at 15 years cultivation, which should be considered when evaluating soil C sequestration. Estimates of C stocks greatly depends on soil sampling depth, and understanding the influences of land use and time will improve soil productivity and conservation in regions with deep soils.     

A hybrid integrated deep learning model for the prediction of citywide spatio-temporal flow volumes

ABSTRACT

The spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet) leverages the power of deep learning (DL) for predicting the volume of citywide spatio-temporal flows. However, this model, neglects the dynamic dependency of the input flows in the temporal dimension, which affects what spatio-temporal features may be captured in the result. This study introduces a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network into the ST-ResNet to form a hybrid integrated-DL model to predict the volumes of citywide spatio-temporal flows (called HIDLST). The new model can dynamically learn the temporal dependency among flows via the feedback connection in the LSTM to improve accurate captures of spatio-temporal features in the flows. We test the HIDLST model by predicting the volumes of citywide taxi flows in Beijing, China. We tune the hyperparameters of the HIDLST model to optimize the prediction accuracy. A comparative study shows that the proposed model consistently outperforms ST-ResNet and several other typical DL-based models on prediction accuracy. Furthermore, we discuss the distribution of prediction errors and the contributions of the different spatio-temporal patterns.     

从全球生产网络到全球金融网络：理解全球-地方经济联系的新框架

全球化带来的新国际劳动分工使全球生产网络(Global Production Network, GPN)成为研究全球经济与区域发展的重要框架。与此同时,金融在现代社会经济运行中的地位日益提升,经济金融化在全球不同尺度下深刻影响着经济活动的空间分布和网络。因此,金融已经成为GPN研究不能忽略的重要环节。更重要的是,金融化带来的逻辑也日益深刻地影响到GPN的演化和运行。尽管GPN研究日益重视金融的作用,并开始研究金融业的全球生产网络,但是随着越来越多的企业通过获得国际股权投资或者在境外资本市场上市等方式融入全球资本市场,主要从生产角度理解地方经济融入全球过程的GPN难以对该现象深入分析。全球金融网络(Global Financial Network, GFN)为刻画和分析这个过程提供了新的框架。在这个分析框架中,地方经济体通过高级商业服务业(Advanced Business Service, ABS)企业与世界城市(国际金融中心)和离岸管辖区产生联系,从而融入GFN。论文介绍了GFN的基本结构,探讨了地方经济融入GFN的主要方式及其产生的影响。最后,提出GFN未来在理论和实证方面可继续深入研究的方向。     

区域水资源协调分析

本文建立了区域水资源协调分析的概念模型和通用多区域-多目标数学模型(MAOM),并结合新疆昌吉州的具体情况,运用目标规划法进行求解,确定了昌吉州近期和远景的水资源合理利用结构。     

全新世以来浙江地区史前文化对环境变化的响应

对浙江地区史前文化的时空分布进行比较研究, 发现4000 cal. a BP前本区史前文化遗址在空间上不断扩大, 较为显著的扩大曾发生过两次, 一次发生在马家浜-河姆渡文化时期, 另一次发生在良渚文化时期;同时以河流谷地为通道, 史前文化从西向东不断向沿海扩展。4000 cal. a BP后, 以马桥文化为代表的各史前文化地域明显收缩, 东向沿海扩散的趋势终止, 同时伴随有南北两种不同模式的生产方式和经济形态转变。浙江地区史前文化分布与全新世海面波动有显著的关系, 尤其是杭州湾两岸的史前文化遗址分布与海面变化的关系最密切, 7000 cal. a BP 以来的低海面-海退成陆过程为史前居民提供了广阔的陆地生存空间。浙江地区史前文化变迁与环境变化在时相上具有一致性, 对比天目山千亩田泥炭和东海内陆架泥质沉积的环境演变记录表明, 4000 cal. a BP前浙江地区史前文化的东向地域扩展是在全新世气候适宜期背景下进行的, 是农业文明和海洋文明共同作用下的扩展和延伸;而4000cal. a BP后史前文化的地域收缩是在气候干冷和沿海海洋环境恶化的背景下发生的。以上初步证明浙江地区史前文化的发展、扩张和收缩与环境变化呈显著的正相关, 而气候环境变化正是引起上述这种变化以及生产方式和经济形态变化的深层次原因。因此, 气候环境成为浙江史前文化变迁的重要影响因子, 其对文化的分布、传播、扩展和演变等都产生了重要影响。     

Editorial Foreword

Cold and arid regions cover the majority of the earth surface. Cold regions are characterized by low temperatures, whereas arid regions are lack of water, thus some unique landscapes such as glacier, frozen ground, desert and oasis are formed and developed under the particular physical, chemical and biological processes in these regions. These raise a series of scientific questions to be solved urgently in relation to the ecosystem productivity, biodiversity, stability and living environments of these     

鄂尔多斯盆地及邻区晚石炭世本溪期构造—沉积环境及原型盆地特征

原型盆地恢复有助于盆地构造—岩相古地理的研究和揭示盆山耦合,对油气勘探与开发具有重要的指导意义。本文利用最新的钻井、测井及露头资料,以沉积相为研究实体,运用盆—山结合的思路,由点—线—面进行分析,重建了鄂尔多斯盆地晚石炭世本溪组沉积时期的构造—沉积环境,研究了原型盆地特征及性质。本溪组沉积期,鄂尔多斯盆地沉积具有东西分异的特征：淳化—庆阳—吴起地区及北部伊盟地区为暴露剥蚀区,东部为克拉通内坳陷盆地,西部为克拉通边缘裂陷盆地。乌达—呼鲁斯台及鄂尔多斯—神木地区发育三角洲相,并向南逐渐推进;鄂西石嘴山、环县及鄂东府谷、延安地区以环带状潮坪—泻湖相为主,受间歇性海侵影响;吴忠、柳林—吉县地区发育低能的泻湖相;中卫—中宁、韩城及以东地区发育不同深度的陆棚及开阔台地。该时期盆地构造环境表现为南北向双向俯冲、贺兰拗拉槽再活化,格局经历了南隆北倾向北隆南倾的转变。受此影响,鄂尔多斯盆地构造古地理格局开始由东西分异逐渐向南北分异转变,受东西两侧海侵影响沉积相带呈环带状展布,但在盆地北部发育潮控三角洲,表现出近缘特征。晚石炭世鄂尔多斯盆地构造—沉积环境与原型盆地特征与其对周缘大地构造运动的响应。