Regional Temperature Forecast for the Next Day in Hong Kong

For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively. The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO. Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008.     

新疆“2.28” 大风的中尺度数值模拟

受西西伯利亚较强冷空气入侵的影响,2007年2月28日02时,乌鲁木齐开往阿克苏的5807次旅客列车,在新疆三十里风区遭遇狂风,造成11节车厢脱轨侧翻。使用WRF模式对这次大风天气过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明：WRF模式较好地模拟了三十里风区大风的演变和分布特征,对逐时风速的模拟较实况偏小,但变化比较同步;很大的气压梯度和特殊的地形是大风形成的主要原因,狭管效应和下坡风同时存在。     

庐枞矿集区大地电磁探测及电性结构初探

在庐枞矿集区开展大地电磁测深(Magnetotelluric,MT)工作,有助于研究庐枞矿集区区域地质结构、构造,同时,对强干扰地区大地电磁下扰信号规律的研究和MT数据的处理与解释水平的提高有着重要的理论意义.论文首先阐述了庐枞盆地的地质概况及深部MT探测的研究现状,接着介绍了庐枞矿集区大地电磁测深数据采集及相关实验研...     

Discovery of the Natural Deformation Vestige of Gaixia Remains,Guzhen County,Anhui Province,China and Its Implications

Recognition of natural deformation during the excavation of ancient remains and tombs is important for tracing or enriching historic and prehistoric deformation records. Recently, the earthquake agencies,in cooperation with the cultural relics and archaeological institutions, conducted a special excavation investigation to the Gaixia remains archaeological scene in Guzhen,Anhui Province. Faults and fissures were discovered there, which,as demonstrated by the preliminary study,are the traces of two stratum d...     

重庆市伏旱时空变化特征

利用1961—2008年重庆34个台站的逐日降水资料,采用主成分分析、旋转主成分分析等方法对重庆伏旱变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：重庆中西部是伏旱高频区,约10年7遇,且多重伏旱。重庆伏旱的第1载荷向量场表明重庆伏旱变化具有很好的整体一致性。重庆伏旱空间异常可分为4个区,即西部区、东北部区、东南部区和中部区。西部伏旱在1960—1970年代最强,东北部伏旱在90年代最强,其次是70年代,中部伏旱在70年代最强,其次是2000年以后,东南部伏旱的年代际变化趋势不明显,且伏旱整体较轻。     

平果县2008年11月致洪暴雨天气成因分析

利用常规气象资料、自动站资料和广西百色SB雷达资料等,分析了2008年10月28日～11月3日的高空环流形势、地面气压场,物理量场、单站降雨量随时间的演变、组合反射率与基本速度图等.结果表明:(1)大范围短时暴雨和大暴雨是导致平果县境内山洪暴发成灾的主要原因;(2)暴雨雨带通常位于500hPa副高588线外侧的100～200Km范围内.稳定的副高有利于对流性降水发生"列车效应";(3)热带气旋和副高南沿之间的低空东南急流为暴雨区输送大量的水汽,并提供主要的对流触发条件;(4)边界层冷空气的入侵对静止锋前暖区对流具有明显的增强作用.     

Notes邮件系统管理维护及典型故障分析

从LotusDomino服务器系统的监控、维护、服务器系统重要文件的备份操作及系统优化等方面介绍了Domino服务器的管理维护方法：分析了Domino服务器和notes客户端的典型故障,给出了具体的故障解决思路及方法。     

用三通道合成彩色图像进行云的分类解释判读

为更好地利用FY-3A气象卫星上中分辨率光谱成像仪(MERSI)资料高空间分辨率及多光谱的优势,细致分析云系在宏、微观方面的多重特征,首先利用平面平行辐射传输模式(SBDART)证明了MERSI的0.65,1.6 μm和11.25 μm通道能够分别反映云光学厚度、云粒子大小、云顶高度的信息,然后采用三通道合成彩色图像的...     

用三通道合成彩色图像进行云的分类解释判读

为更好地利用FY-3A气象卫星上中分辨率光谱成像仪(MERSI)资料高空间分辨率及多光谱的优势,细致分析云系在宏、微观方面的多重特征,首先利用平面平行辐射传输模式(SBDART)证明了MERSI的0.65,1.6 μm和11.25 μm通道能够分别反映云光学厚度、云粒子大小、云顶高度的信息,然后采用三通道合成彩色图像的方法,对FY-3A气象卫星云图进行云的分类解释判读.该技术可直观区分有云区、无云区,显示海陆分界,并且使不同云类在云图上体现为不同颜色.同时,FY-3A气象卫星高达1000 m甚至250m的空间分辨率也使云的细致结构更为清晰,两项优势的叠加,大大提升了云的分类解释判读的准确程度和精细化水平.文中还尝试寻找典型云系的三通道特征值,以期为模糊C均值聚类(FCM)方法中聚类中心的选定提供经验值参考.     

Multistage melt/fluid-peridotite interactions in the refertilized lithospheric mantle beneath the North China Craton: constraints from the Li–Sr–Nd isotopic disequilibrium between minerals of peridotite xenoliths

Elemental and Li–Sr–Nd isotopic data of minerals in spinel peridotites hosted by Cenozoic basalts allow us to refine the existing models for Li isotopic fractionation in mantle peridotites and constrain the melt/fluid-peridotite interaction in the lithospheric mantle beneath the North China Craton. Highly elevated Li concentrations in cpx (up to 24 ppm) relative to coexisting opx and olivine (<4 ppm) indicate that the peridotites experienced metasomatism by mafic silicate melts and/or fluids. The mineral δ⁷Li vary greatly, with olivine (+0.7 to +5.4‰) being isotopically heavier than coexisting opx (−4.4 to −25.9‰) and cpx (−3.3 to −21.4‰) in most samples. The δ⁷Li in pyroxenes are considerably lower than the normal mantle values and show negative correlation with their Li abundances, likely due to recent Li ingress attended by diffusive fractionation of Li isotopes. Two exceptional samples have olivine δ⁷Li of −3.0 and −7.9‰, indicating the existence of low δ⁷Li domains in the mantle, which could be transient and generated by meter-scale diffusion of Li during melt/fluid-peridotite interaction. The ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.5123–0.5139) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.7018–0.7062) in the pyroxenes also show a large variation, in which the cpx are apparently lower in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and slightly higher in ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd than coexisting opx, implying an intermineral Sr–Nd isotopic disequilibrium. This is observed more apparently in peridotites having low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and high ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios than in those with high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd, suggesting that a relatively recent interaction existed between an ancient metasomatized lithospheric mantle and asthenospheric melt, which transformed the refractory peridotites with highly radiogenic Sr and unradiogenic Nd isotopic compositions to the fertile lherzolites with unradiogenic Sr and radiogenic Nd isotopic compositions. Therefore, we argue that the lithospheric mantle represented by the peridotites has been heterogeneously refertilized by multistage melt/fluid-peridotite interactions.