Risk assessment of earth dam overtopping and its application research

The problem of dam safety is one of the most important research topics of water conservancy projects, and many researchers pay much attention to study the risk of earth dam overtopping. This paper synthesizes in the definition of risk the probabilities of dam failure and the corresponding losses, including the probability estimation, losses evaluation and criteria exploring risk approaches. Then, a comprehensive risk assessment system of dam flood overtopping is established, which is widely applicable. Gate failure, randomness of flood, initial water level and time-varying effects are incorporated in the failure probability model. Many complex factors are simplified in losses estimation. In addition, thresholds of various types of losses are proposed and are adapted to the national conditions. The methodology is applied to the Lianghekou hydropower station in China to illustrate the assessment process of flood overtopping risk and to evaluate its safe loophole with a view to the failure of spillway gates. Monte Carlo simulation and JC method programs are adopted to solve the model based on MATLAB tools and DELPHI. The results show that the losses pose significant impact on the risk assessment and should be considered in the assessment of risk. Probability calculation and loss estimation could be well combined with standards, providing a basis for risk management and decision-making.     

基于PLSR的典型沼泽湿地植物叶片性状与光谱模型构建——以三江国家级自然保护区为例

通过植物光学特性测量叶片性状是一种非破坏性的、长期的湿地动态监测方法。选择三江国家级自然保护区多种典型湿地植物为研究对象,探究植物性状与叶片光谱之间的联系。研究表明：叶片氮含量与光谱的模型构建效果最好,模型R²为0.61,均方根误差（RMSE）为2.3862;叶片含水量、叶片磷、可溶性糖、纤维素和木质素含量之和的模型一般,R²在0.38~0.55范围内,RMSE在0.0004~10.7019范围内;淀粉含量拟合效果较差, R²为0.29,RMSE为0.0106。光谱预测重要性的结果表明,可见光与近红外边缘范围内的光谱信息对于叶片含水量、叶片氮含量、叶片磷含量、单位叶面积质量、纤维素和木质素之和、可溶性糖和淀粉的预测具有最高的重要性。     

Gentrifying rural community development: A case study of Bama Panyang River Basin in Guangxi,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Rural gentrification is deeply characterized by institutional context and spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Based on a diachronic field investigation, this paper...     

Effects of meteorological and hydrogeological factors on gross recharge percentage at unconfined sandy aquifers with an equatorial climate

A thorough understanding of rainfall recharge processes and their controlling factors is essential for management of groundwater systems. This study investigates the effects of various meteorological and hydrogeological factors on the gross recharge percentages, the rainfall–recharge relationships and the recharge threshold values for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate. Among the meteorological factors investigated, rainfall intensity was found to have the most significant impact on the gross recharge rate. The effects of potential evaporation rate, relative humidity and air temperature on the gross recharge percentage were significant when the vadose zone thickness is larger than 2·5 m. The recharge threshold values were found to depend strongly on the vadose zone thickness. The rainfall–recharge relationships could generally be well defined by a normal–log relationship. The rainfall–recharge relationships derived here are applicable to yield estimates of gross recharge percentages for unconfined sandy aquifers under an equatorial climate, using rainfall intensity and vadose zone thickness as input variables. In this study, a theory was developed and validated to provide physical explanations for the observations, based on the residence time of the percolated rainwater within the vadose zone. Among the soil hydraulic parameters tested, porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity were found to have the most pronounced effects on the gross recharge percentage. Utilizing the sensitivity results and the theory derived, an approach was developed for extending the application of the derived rainfall–recharge relationships to other sand textures. The approach was found to be capable of producing rough and fast estimations of gross recharge percentage for other sand textures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach for sub‐daily flow disaggregation

The estimation of sub‐daily flows from daily flood flows is important for many hydrological and hydraulic applications. Flows during flood events often vary significantly within sub‐daily time‐scales, and failure to capture the sub‐daily flood characteristic can result in an underestimation of the instantaneous flood peaks, with possible risk of design failure. It is more common to find a longer record of daily flow series (observed or modelled using daily rainfall series) than sub‐daily flow data. This paper describes a novel approach, known as the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach, for disaggregating daily flood flows into sub‐daily flows that takes advantage of the strong relationship between the standardized instantaneous flood peak and the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index. The strength of this relationship, which is considerably stronger than the relationship between the standardized flood peak and the event flood volume, is shown using data from six rivers flowing into the Gippsland Lakes in southeast Australia. The results indicate that the steepness index unit volume flood hydrograph approach can be used to disaggregate modelled daily flood flows satisfactorily, but its reliability is dependent on a model's ability to simulate the standardized daily flood hydrograph rising‐limb steepness index and the event flood volume. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How does afforestation affect the hydrology of a blanket peatland? A modelling study

Over the last century, afforestation in Ireland has increased from 1% of the land area to 10%, with most plantations on upland drained blanket peatlands. This land use change is considered to have altered the hydrological response and water balance of upland catchments with implications for water resources. Because of the difficulty of observing these long‐term changes in the field, the aim of this study was to utilize a hydrological model to simulate the rainfall runoff processes of an existing pristine blanket peatland and then to simulate the hydrology of the peatland if it were drained and afforested. The hydrological rainfall runoff model (GEOtop) was calibrated and validated for an existing small (76 ha) pristine blanket peatland in the southwest of Ireland for the 2‐year period, 2007–2008. The current hydrological response of the pristine blanket peatland catchment with regard to streamflow and water table (WT) levels was captured well in the simulations. Two land use change scenarios of afforestation were also examined, (A) a young 10‐year‐old and (B) a semi‐mature 15‐year‐old Sitka Spruce forest. Scenario A produced similar streamflow dynamics to the pristine peatland, whereas total annual streamflow from Scenario B was 20% lower. For Scenarios A and B, on an annual average basis, the WT was drawn down by 16 and 20 cm below that observed in the pristine peatland, respectively. The maximum WT draw down in Scenario B was 61 cm and occurred in the summer months, resulting in a significant decrease in summer streamflow. Occasionally in the winter (following rainfall), the WT for Scenario B was just 2 cm lower than the pristine peatland, which when coupled with the drainage networks associated with afforestation led to higher peak streamflows. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of water retention curve hysteresis on the stability of unsaturated soil slopes

Hysteresis is a common feature exhibited in hydraulic properties of an unsaturated soil. The movement of wetting front and the hysteresis effect are important factors which impact the shear strength of the unsaturated soil and the mechanics of shallow landslides. These failures are mainly triggered by the deepening of the wetting front accompanied by a decrease in matric suction induced by infiltration. This research establishes a method for determining a stability analysis of unsaturated infinite soil slopes, integrating the influence of infiltration and the water retention curve hysteresis. Furthermore, the present stability analysis method including the infiltration model and the advanced Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion calculates the variations of the safety factor (FS) in accordance with different slope angle, depth and hydrological processes. The experimentally measured data on the effect of hysteresis are also carried out for comparison. Numerical analyses, employing both wetting and drying hydraulic behaviour of unsaturated soil, are performed to study the difference in soil‐water content as observed in the experiments. The simulating approximations also fully responded to the experimental data of sand box. The results suggest that the hysteresis behaviour affect the distribution of soil‐water content within the slope indeed. The hysteresis made the FS values a remarkable recovery during the period of non‐rainfall in a rainfall event. The appropriate hydraulic properties of soil (i.e. wetting or drying) should be used in accordance with the processes that unsaturated soil actually experience. This method will enable us to acquire more accurate matric suction head and the unsaturated soil‐shear strength as it changes with the hysteretic flow, in order to calculate into the stability analysis of shallow landslides. An advanced understanding of the process mechanism afforded by this method is critical to realizing a reliable and appropriate design for slope stabilization. It also offers some immediate reference information to the disaster reduction department of the government. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

GPS观测数据传输技术的研究

为改变目前ＧＰＳ观测数据邮递的数据传递方式，研究用公用电话网进行ＧＰＳ观测数据传递的传输技术。通过实验以及联调证明此项传输技术不仅传输速度高，而且传输准确，使用方便，系统功能强，还可服务于工程监测、自然灾害防御、地震前兆监测等需数据通信的领域     

Coronae & Outflows from Helical Dynamos, Compatibility with the MRI, and Application to Protostellar Disks

Magnetically mediated disk outflows are a leading paradigm to explain winds and jets in a variety of astrophysical sources, but where do the fields come from? Since accretion of mean magnetic flux may be disfavored in a thin turbulent disk, and only fields generated with sufficiently large scale can escape before being shredded by turbulence, in situ field production is desirable. Nonlinear helical inverse dynamo theory can provide the desired fields for coronae and outflows. We discuss the implications for contemporary protostellar disks, where the (magneto-rotational instability (MRI)) can drive turbulence in the inner regions, and primordial protostellar disks, where gravitational instability drives the turbulence. We emphasize that helical dynamos are compatible with the magneto-rotational instability, and clarify the relationship between the two.     

用地基GPS资料分析大气可降水汽总量

利用“中国地壳运动监测网络”和三峡监测网的地基GPS资料，通过Bernese软件以及根据Bevis等和Rocken等水汽解算原理编制的水汽解算软件。获得了武汉、巴东、兴山、泸州等长江流域测站大气可降水汽总量分布和时间间隔为2小时的GPS遥感大气可降水汽序列，并与站点雨量及区域面雨量进行对比分析，结果表明：地基GPS遥感水汽量变化与地面降水有很好的相关性。而且GPS遥感水汽变化序列峰值对应于强降水提前了8～22小时。有助于强降水特别是突发性强降水的预测；多个站点的GPS遥感水汽总量联合分析，对于区域水汽总量变化研究有一定意义。