Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

Primary melt from Sannome-gata volcano,NE Japan arc: constraints on generation conditions of rear-arc magmas

The conditions under which rear-arc magmas are generated were estimated using primary basalts from the Sannome-gata volcano, located in the rear of the NE Japan arc. Scoriae from the volcano occur with abundant crustal and mantle xenoliths, suggesting that the magma ascended rapidly from the upper mantle. The scoriae show significant variations in their whole-rock compositions (7.9–11.1 wt% MgO). High-MgO scoriae (MgO > ~9.5 wt%) have mostly homogeneous ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.70318–0.70320), whereas low-MgO scoriae (MgO < ~9 wt%) have higher ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (>0.70327); ratios tend to increase with decreasing MgO content. The high-MgO scoriae are aphyric, containing ~5 vol% olivine microphenocrysts with Mg# [100 × Mg/(Mg + Fe²⁺)] of up to 90. In contrast, the low-MgO scoriae have crustal xenocrysts of plagioclase, alkali feldspar, and quartz, and the mineralogic modes correlate negatively with whole-rock MgO content. On the basis of these observations, it is inferred that the high-MgO scoriae represent primary or near-primary melts, while the low-MgO scoriae underwent considerable interaction with the crust. Using thermodynamic analysis of the observed petrological features of the high-MgO scoriae, the eruption temperature of the magmas was constrained to 1,160–1,220 °C. Given that the source mantle was depleted MORB-source mantle, the primary magma was plausibly generated by ~7 % melting of a garnet-bearing spinel peridotite; taking this into consideration, and considering the constraints of multi-component thermodynamics, we estimated that the primary Sannome-gata magma was generated in the source mantle with 0.5–0.6 wt% H₂O at 1,220–1,230 °C and at ~1.8 GPa, and that the H₂O content of the primary magma was 6–7 wt%. The rear-arc Sannome-gata magma was generated by a lower degree of melting of the mantle at greater depths and lower temperatures than the frontal-arc magma from the Iwate volcano, which was also estimated to be generated by ~15 % melting of the source mantle with 0.6–0.7 wt% H₂O at ~1,250 °C and at ~1.3 GPa.     

The multiple chronological techniques applied to the Lake Suigetsu SG06 sediment core,central Japan

The varved sediment of Lake Suigetsu (central Japan) provides a valuable opportunity to obtain high‐resolution, multi‐proxy palaeoenvironmental data across the last glacial/interglacial cycle. In order to maximize the potential of this archive, a well‐constrained chronology is required. This paper outlines the multiple geochronological techniques being applied – namely varve counting, radiocarbon dating, tephrochronology (including argon–argon dating) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) – and the approaches by which these techniques are being integrated to form a single, coherent, robust chronology. Importantly, we also describe here the linkage of the floating Lake Suigetsu (SG06) varve chronology and the absolute (IntCal09 tree‐ring) time scale, as derived using radiocarbon data from the uppermost (non‐varved) portion of the core. This tie‐point, defined as a distinct (flood) marker horizon in SG06 (event layer B‐07–08 at 1397.4 cm composite depth), is thus derived to be 11 255 to 11 222 IntCal09 cal. years BP (68.2% probability range).     

Evaluation of change in subsurface thermal environment due to groundwater flow in the Tokyo Lowland,Japan

Information on the distribution of subsurface temperature and hydraulic heads at 24 observation wells in and around the Tokyo Lowland, the eastern part of the Tokyo Metropolitan area, were examined to make clear the relationship between groundwater and the subsurface thermal environment in the urban area. Minimums in temperature–depth logs due to subsurface temperature increasing at shallow parts were recognized in 21 wells. This fact shows subsurface temperature is affected by ground surface warming in almost all of this area. Deeper than minimums, where the effects of surface warming became relatively small, regional variation is observed as follows: high temperatures are shown in the central part to the southern part, and low temperatures shown in the inland to eastern part. The high temperature area corresponds to an area where the lower boundary of groundwater flow is relatively shallow. This area corresponds also to an area with severe land subsidence resulting from excessive groundwater pumping. It is considered that this high temperature area is formed by the effects of upward groundwater flow affected by hydrogeological conditions and pumping. On the other hand, a comparison between past data (1956–1967) and present data (2001–2003) revealed widespread decreasing temperature in the inland area. This is explained by downward groundwater flow based on an analysis of temperature–depth logs. This fact suggests that subsurface temperature is not only increasing from the effects of surface warming but also decreasing from the effects of groundwater environment change due to pumping.     

Determination of Sr/Sr mass-dependent isotopic fractionation and radiogenic isotope variation of Sr/Sr in the Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation

We measured both mass-dependent isotope fractionation of δ⁸⁸Sr (⁸⁸Sr/⁸⁶Sr) and radiogenic isotopic variation of Sr (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) for the Neoproterozoic Doushantuo Formation that deposited as a cap carbonate immediately above the Marinoan-related Nantuo Tillite. The δ⁸⁸Sr and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr compositions showed three remarkable characteristics: (1) high radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values and gradual decrease in the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, (2) anomalously low δ⁸⁸Sr values at the lower part cap carbonate, and (3) a clear correlation between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ⁸⁸Sr values. These isotopic signatures can be explained by assuming an extreme greenhouse condition after the Marinoan glaciation. Surface seawater, mixed with a large amount of freshwater from continental crusts with high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and lighter δ⁸⁸Sr ratios, was formed during the extreme global warming after the glacial event. High atmospheric CO₂ content caused sudden precipitation of cap carbonate from the surface seawater with high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and lighter δ⁸⁸Sr ratios. Subsequently, the mixing of the underlying seawater, with unradiogenic Sr isotope compositions and normal δ⁸⁸Sr ratios, probably caused gradual decrease of the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the seawater and deposition of carbonate with normal δ⁸⁸Sr ratios. The combination of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ⁸⁸Sr isotope systematics gives us new insights on the surface evolution after the Snowball Earth.     

Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E.

We develop a summer temperature reconstruction for temperate East Asia based on a network of annual tree-ring chronologies covering the period 800–1989 C.E. The East Asia reconstruction is the regional average of 585 individual grid point summer temperature reconstructions produced using an ensemble version of point-by-point regression. Statistical calibration and validation tests indicate that the regional average possesses sufficient overall skill to allow it to be used to study the causes of temperature variability and change over the region. The reconstruction suggests a moderately warm early medieval epoch (ca. 850–1050 C.E.), followed by generally cooler ‘Little Ice Age’ conditions (ca. 1350–1880 C.E.) and 20th century warming up to the present time. Since 1990, average temperature has exceeded past warm epochs of comparable duration, but it is not statistically unprecedented. Superposed epoch analysis reveals a volcanic forcing signal in the East Asia summer temperature reconstruction, resulting in pulses of cooler summer conditions that may persist for several years. Substantial uncertainties remain, however, particularly at lower frequencies, thus requiring caution and scientific prudence in the interpretation of this record.     

The extinction coefficients in mid- and farinfrared of silicate and iron-oxide minerals of interest for astronomical observations

Extinction measurements were made for some silicate and iron-oxide mineral grains in mid- and far-infrared region. For far-infrared region, high temperature magnesium silicates such as olivine and pyroxenes show the absorption spectra of steep dependence as ^–3 ( being the wavelength) with some peak structure, but the spectrum of magnetite shows ^–1 dependence.     

Baroclinic eddies south of Cheju Island in the East China Sea

The detailed structures of baroclinic eddies, that is, an anticlockwise circulation in the upper layer and a clockwise one in the lower layer south of Cheju Island in the East China Sea have been revealed by intensive field observation. Such baroclinic eddies are accompanied by the southward spreading of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water.     

Pyroxenes in the system Mg2Si2O6-CaMgSi2O6 at high pressure

The enstatite-diopside solvus in the system Mg₂Si₂O₆-CaMgSi₂O₆ has been experimentally determined within the pressure range 5–40 kbars and the temperature range 900–1500°C. Experiments involving reversal of the phase boundaries by unmixing from glass starting material and by reaction of pure clinoenstatite and diopside showed difficulty in achieving equilibration due to persistence of metastable, subcalcic clinopyroxene and to the sluggishness of reaction rate. The experimental data showed that the temperature dependence of the diopside limb is less than previously accepted. At 1500°C and 30 kbars subcalcic diopside found by Davis and Boyd (1966) is shown to be metastable with respect to enstatite and more calcic diopside of composition En_42.3Di_57.7. The solvus widens with increasing pressure between 5 and 40 kbars at 1200°C, but at 900°C the pressure effect on the solvus is very small. The stability relationships of the four pyroxenes, protoenstatite, enstatite, iron-free pigeonite and diopside are summarized, based on data from the literature and the present study.     

Confined groundwater system in Tokyo

The Musashino Terrace and the Shitamachi Lowland, the main urban areas in the Tokyo metropolis, are in the eastern part of Tokyo and are underlain by thick Quaternary sediments. The geologic structrue of these sediments has a general strike of WNW—ESE, with a gentle dip to the east in the western part of the Musashino Terrace, and strikes generally to the E—W with a gentle dip to the north in the eastern part of the terrace and strikes WNW—ESE to N—S with a very gentle dip to the east in the Shitamachi Lowland. The basal sediments in this area consist chiefly of massive thick silty layers, whereas the sediments overlying them consist of alternating layers of silt, sand, and gravel, which act as confined aquifers throughout the Musashino Terrace and the Shitamachi Lowland. Confined groundwater systems are being developed in the Tama District, the western part of the terrace, and are mainly recharged with river water from the Tama River. The unconfined groundwater system is being developed in the surface layers such as terrace sand and gravel formations and the Kanto Loam Formation. These confined aquifers that are being developed throughout the terrace and the lowland have been exploited for household water supplies and industrial and air-conditioning use for nearly seven decades. The heavy utilization of the confined groundwater, however, has caused a major lowering of groundwater levels. As a result of the lowering of groundwater levels, land subsidence has occurred all over the Lowland and the terrace. At this time the national government and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government restricted groundwater withdrawals for industrial, air-conditioning use and the others except for household supply. Owing to these restrictions, not only have the water levels recovered, but land subsidence has rapidly declined since around 1973.