Bayesian and Neural Network Approaches to Estimate Deep Temperature Distribution for Assessing a Supercritical Geothermal System: Evaluation Using a Numerical Model

The temperature distribution at depth is a key variable when assessing the potential of a supercritical geothermal resource as well as a conventional geothermal resource. Data-driven estimation by a machine-learning approach is a promising way to estimate temperature distributions at depth in geothermal fields. In this study, we developed two methodologies—one based on Bayesian estimation and the other on neural networks—to estimate temperature distributions in geothermal fields. These methodologies can be used to supplement existing temperature logs, by estimating temperature distributions in unexplored regions of the subsurface, based on electrical resistivity data, observed geological/mineralogical boundaries, and microseismic observations. We evaluated the accuracy and characteristics of these methodologies using a numerical model of the Kakkonda geothermal field, Japan, where a temperature above 500 °C was observed below a depth of about 3.7 km. When using geological and geophysical knowledge as prior information for the machine learning methods, the results demonstrate that the approaches can provide subsurface temperature estimates that are consistent with the temperature distribution given by the numerical model. Using a numerical model as a benchmark helps to understand the characteristics of the machine learning approaches and may help to identify ways of improving these methods.

     

Damage process of pile foundation in liquefied ground during strong ground motion

The 1995 Hyogoken–Nambu earthquake caused severe liquefaction over wide areas of reclaimed land. Furthermore, the liquefaction induced large ground displacement in horizontal directions, which caused serious damage to foundations of structures. However, few analyses of steel pipe piles based on field investigation have so far been conducted to identify the causes and process of such damage. The authors conducted a soil–pile-structure interaction analysis by applying a multi-lumped-mass-spring model to a steel pipe pile foundation structure to evaluate the causes and process of its damage. The damage process analyzed in the time domain corresponded well with the results of detailed field investigation. It was found that a large bending moment beyond the ultimate plastic moment of the pile foundation structure was induced mainly by the large ground displacement caused by liquefaction before lateral spreading of the ground and that the displacement appeared during the accumulating process of the excess pore water pressure.     

Dynamical rupture process on a three-dimensional fault with non-uniform frictions and near-field seismic waves

Summary. Dynamical rupture process on the fault is investigated in a quasi-three-dimensional faulting model with non-uniform distributions of static frictions or the fracture strength under a finite shearing pre-stress. The displacement and stress time functions on the fault are obtained by solving numerically the equations of motion with a finite stress—fracture criterion, using the finite difference method.
If static frictions are homogeneous or weakly non-uniform, the rupture propagates nearly elliptically with a velocity close to that of P waves along the direction of pre-stress and with a nearly S wave velocity in the direction perpendicular to it. The rise time of the source function and the final displacements are larger around the centre of the fault. In the case when the static frictions are heavily non-uniform and depend on the location, the rupture propagation becomes quite irregular with appreciably decreased velocities, indicating remarkable stick-slip phenomena. In some cases, there remain unruptured regions where fault slip does not take place, and high stresses remain concentrated up to the final stage. These regions could be the source of aftershocks at a next stage.
The stick—slip faulting and irregular rupture propagation radiate high-frequency seismic waves, and the near-field spectral amplitudes tend to show an inversely linear frequency dependence over high frequencies for heavily non-uniform frictional faults.     

Eruptive history of the Barombi Mbo Maar, Cameroon Volcanic Line, Central Africa: Constraints from volcanic facies analysis

his study presents the first and detail field investigations of exposed deposits at proximal sections of the Barombi Mbo Maar (BMM), NE Mt Cameroon, with the aim of documenting its past activity, providing insight on the stratigraphic distribution, depositional process, and evolution of the eruptive sequences during its formation. Field evidence reveals that the BMM deposit is about 126m thick, of which about 20m is buried lowermost under the lake level and covered by vegetation. Based on variation in pyroclastic facies within the deposit, it can be divided into three main stratigraphic units: U₁, U₂ and U₃. Interpretation of these features indicates that U₁ consists of alternating lapilli-ash-lapilli beds series, in which fallout derived individual lapilli-rich beds are demarcated by surges deposits made up of thin, fine-grained and consolidated ash-beds that are well-defined, well-sorted and laterally continuous in outcrop scale. U₂, a pyroclastic fall-derived unit, shows crudely lenticular stratified scoriaceous layers, in which many fluidal and spindle bombs-rich lapilli-beds are separated by very thin, coarse-vesiculatedash-beds, overlain by a mantle xenolith- and accidental lithic-rich explosive breccia, and massive lapilli tuff and lapillistone. U3 displays a series of surges and pyroclastic fall layers. Emplacement processes were largely controlled by fallout deposition and turbulent diluted pyroclastic density currents under “dry” and “wet” conditions. The eruptive activity evolved in a series of initial phreatic eruptions, which gradually became phreatomagmatic, followed by a phreato-Strombolian and a violent phreatomagmatic fragmentation. A relatively long-time break, demonstrated by a paleosol between U₂ and U₃, would have permitted the feeding of the root zone or the prominent crater by the water that sustained the next eruptive episode, dominated by subsequent phreatomagmatic eruptions. These preliminary results require complementary studies, such as geochemistry, for a better understanding of the changes in the eruptive styles, and to develop more constraints on the maar’s polygenetic origin.     

Variations in snowmelt energy and energy balance characteristics with larch forest density on Mt Iwate,Japan: observations and energy balance analyses

The variation in snowmelt energy and energy components were evaluated with respect to forest density. Surface snowmelt rates, surface evaporation from snow cover and meteorological elements were measured in the open and under sparse (411 trees/ha) and dense (1433 trees/ha) larch canopies. The surface snowmelt rate decreased as the forest density increased. Based on the observations and energy balance analyses, we concluded the following. (1) Albedo decreased while the bulk coefficient for latent heat increased with forest density. (2) The duration of snowmelt increased with forest density because the energy for nocturnal cooling of the snow cover decreased. (3) When comparing the open and forested sites, the changes in snowmelt energy with forest density were caused by sensible heat flux. However, the contribution of net radiation was highest in the forested sites. Therefore, the effects of forest cover on the snowmelt energy were different when comparing both the open and forested sites and the sparse and densely forested sites. (4) The ratio of net radiation to snowmelt energy increased with forest density; although both snowmelt energy and net radiation decreased with increased forest density, the snowmelt energy decreased more rapidly. Sensible heat also decreased as forest density increased. Both albedo and downward long‐wave radiation influenced net radiation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short-term temperature and salinity variations in the Tsushima Strait in 2004: Behavior of the surface low-salinity water in the strait

Temporal variations in temperature and salinity observed in 2004 were investigated on a short time scale in the Tsushima Strait. The data were obtained by long-term in situ measurements at Mitsushima and Futaoi Island using an instrument equipped with a piston-type wiper to avoid biofouling. In addition, the temperature and salinity values of the surface layer obtained by a commercial ferryboat between Hakata and Busan were used to investigate their spatiotemporal variations. Temperature and salinity variations with a time scale of several days had a negative correlation in the summer. This evidence suggests that a warm and less saline water mass, which is considered to be mainly the Changjiang Diluted Water (CDW), flowed intermittently through the Tsushima Strait in summer. In late July 2004, a large low-salinity water mass was detected in the Tsushima Strait. At that time, the freshwater transport through the Tsushima Strait transiently reached about 12 × 10⁴ m³s⁻¹, which is estimated from observed acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data along a ferryboat line and inferred salinity profiles. This estimated value is more than double the maximum of the climatological monthly mean of the Changjiang discharge. Furthermore, salinity and surface current data obtained by high frequency ocean radar (HF radar) indicate that water properties at Mitsushima may occasionally represent part of the water flowing through the western channel via a countercurrent, although Mitsushima is geographically located in the eastern channel.     

Markarian 313: An intermediate object between a seyfert and a starburst galaxy

An ultraviolet-excess galaxy Markarian 313 (NGC 7465), which consists of a multiple system with NGC 7463 and NGC 7464, is studied using the low- and high-resolution optical spectrum. Emission lines of H, H, [NII], and [OIII] have conspicuous blueward asymmetrical wings or blue slanted profiles in the spectrum of the nuclear region of the galaxy. The width of these emission lines is as broad as 600 km s^–1 at the zero-intensity level, and the velocity difference between the narrow and broad components is estimated at around 80 km s^–1 from the two-component Gaussian profile fitting. This fact could be an evidence of a large-scale dynamical motion in or surrounding the nuclear region of the galaxy, implying that it bears an intermediate characteristic between a Seyfert and a starburst galaxy.     

沙虫干呈味及功能性成分研究

对沙虫干抽提物成分的组成进行的研究结果表明 :游离氨基酸含量 w为 10 .3% ,占抽提物含氮物质的 77.9%。抽提物组成中 ,呈甘味的 Gly(3.2 % )、Ala(2 .5% )和呈鲜味的 IMP(0 .2 7% )、Glu(0 .2 5% )、琥珀酸 (0 .35% )等成分同沙虫干独特的风味有关 ,Na 、Cl-等无机离子也同其呈味相关。此外 ,牛磺酸含量 w高达 3.2 % ,是富含牛磺酸的一种海洋生物 ;精氨酸的含量 w亦较高 ,为 1.2 %。     

Newly-generated Daliangshan Fault Zone—Shortcutting on the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system

The Daliangshan fault zone is the eastern branch in the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. It has been neglected for a long time, partly because of no destructive earthquake records along this fault zone. On the other hand, it is located on the remote and inaccessible plateau. So far it was excluded as part of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. Based on the interpretation of aerophotographs and field investigations, we document this fault zone in detail, and give an estimation of strike-slip rate about 3 mm/a in Late Quaternary together with age dating data. The results suggest that the Daliangshan fault zone is a newly-generated fault zone resulted from shortcutting in the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system because of the clockwise rotation of the Southeastern Tibetan Crustal Block, which is bounded by the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. Moreover, the shortcutting may make the Daliangshan fault zone replace the Anninghe and Zemuhe fault zones gradually, and finally, the later two fault zones will probably die out with the continuous clockwise rotation.