Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts

We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO.     

Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625–1644 and 1975–1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975–1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625–1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales.     

Oceanic origin of southeast tropical Atlantic biases

Most coupled general circulation models suffer from a prominent warm sea surface temperature bias in the southeast tropical Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. The origin of the bias is not understood and remains highly controversial. Previous studies suggest that the origin of the bias stems from systematic errors of atmospheric models in simulating surface heat flux and coastal wind, or poorly simulated coastal upwelling. In this study, we show, using different reanalysis and observational data sets combined with a set of eddy-resolving regional ocean model simulations, that systematic errors in ocean models also make a significant contribution to the bias problem. In particular (1) the strong warm bias at the Angola-Benguela front that is maintained by the local wind and the convergence of Angola and Benguela Currents is caused by an overshooting of the Angola Current in ocean models and (2) the alongshore warm bias to the south of the front is caused by ocean model deficiencies in simulating the sharp thermocline along the Angola coast, which is linked to biases in the equatorial thermocline, and the complex circulation system within the Benguela upwelling zone.     

层次分析法支持下的道路洪涝灾害风险评价——以武夷山地区为例

本文首先采用基于多准则决策的层次分析评价法,根据自然灾害风险理论,将洪涝风险影响因子分为危险性和脆弱性两类,子准则层包括平均降雨量、汇流累积量、坡度、海拔和土地覆盖度、道路级别、地表产流能力7个因子,构建了道路洪涝灾害风险评价模型。然后以福建省武夷山地区为研究区,利用地形数据、气象数据及遥感影像提取土地覆盖类型数据,通过道路洪涝灾害风险评价模型,绘制了道路风险分区图。结果表明,中、高风险积水道路占比较高,主要集中在东部、西部和中南部地区。本文对道路洪涝灾害风险所进行的评价,可服务于洪涝灾害风险预警和应急救援规划。     

高分七号卫星激光测高仪无场几何定标法

无场几何定标是未来多波束激光测高卫星面临的一个关键问题。本文针对高分七号（GF-7）线性体制全波形激光测高仪,提出了一种基于地形和波形匹配的无场分步定标方法。在深入分析高分七号卫星激光测高仪特点的基础上,构建了严密几何定位模型,采用公开版的地形参考数据和某地区1∶2000高精度的DOM和LiDAR-DSM基础地理信息成果,开展了在轨无场几何定标试验,显著提高了高分七号卫星激光测高数据精度。在2020年上半年受新冠肺炎影响未进行外场定标期间,有效解决了激光测高数据处理无定标参数的实际困难。本文对无场定标结果与高分七号实际外场定标结果进行对比验证,结果表明,无场定标结果与实际落点位置的平面误差为11.597±3.693 m,最小值为7.115 m,平坦地区高程精度优于0.3 m,虽然略低于外场定标结果,但能满足1∶10 000高程控制点测量需求。     

辐射井疏干技术在露天矿地下水疏干中的应用研究

现有的井群疏干、地下巷道集中排水、地表地下联合疏干方法都已比较成熟有效,但当矿区的地下水系统由非均质各向异性、低渗透性含水介质组成时,井群疏干受到低渗透性含水层和高倾角裂隙的制约,无法达到良好的疏干效果。地下巷道集中排水方法一次性工程投入很大,含水层富水性极度不均时易造成许多不必要的浪费;地表地下联合疏干方法的地面部分对矿坑边坡安全和采场作业都会造成一定的影响。结合马钢集团南山矿业公司高村露天铁矿的地下水疏干技术研究专项,调查分析了矿区地质和水文地质条件,含水介质特点及含水层富水特征,借助GMS软件建立了高村矿区地下水水流模型,提出了辐射井疏干技术的设想,并依据前人提出的＂渗流-管流耦合模型＂模拟辐射井,完成了此类矿山的地下水辐射井疏干方法的初步研究。     

中坝隧道地下分水岭演化的数值模拟分析

由于铁路隧道的施工,地下水进入隧道,形成了新的排泄基准面,对区域地下水环境产生较大影响,故对该类问题进行深入研究具有重要的工程实践意义。以中坝岩溶隧道为例,采用Visual modflow对中坝隧道进行三维数值模拟,模拟中坝隧道开挖建设后,地下分水岭的演化过程,以此来探讨分析其对地下水环境的影响。     

基于回归分析法的地下水位预测研究

彭楼灌区位于山东省聊城市西南部,为引黄灌溉灌区。2002年彭楼灌区复灌以来,有效缓解当地水资源紧缺的矛盾。为研究彭楼灌区引黄水量对地下水位的影响,采用回归分析法,具体分析地下水位变差与引黄水量、干旱指数的回归关系,建立回归方程。通过实例分析检验,建立的回归方程可作为进行彭楼灌区地下水位预测的一种方法。     

大兴安岭西坡银都赋矿岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年及其成因意义

银都矿床位于内蒙古大兴安岭西坡,为受断裂控制的银多金属矿床。该矿床的岩体主要为石英闪长岩。该岩体中的锆石分为岩浆锆石和热液锆石两类:岩浆锆石无色透明,自形长柱状,具有典型的振荡环带特征;而热液锆石呈浅褐色,半透明—不透明,等轴状,其暗色增生边明显切过了核部岩浆锆石结构。热液锆石相对岩浆锆石具有低Th/U和LREE,高Hf和HREE的特征。银都岩体岩浆锆石的206Pb/238 U加权平均年龄为(451.8±7.8)Ma,属加里东期,为岩体的结晶年龄;热液锆石的206 Pb/238 U加权平均年龄为(337.0±7.7)Ma,属中石炭世,代表了热液作用的年龄。热液锆石年龄表明,该区在337Ma左右经历了一次强烈的热液作用,该期热液作用可能与该区造山峰期的变质作用有关。本区的地质特征和流体包裹体特征表明,本区银矿的形成很可能与这期热液活动密切相关。     

沁水盆地煤层气成藏主控因素与成藏模式分析

沁水盆地石炭-二叠系煤层厚度大、分布稳定、演化程度高,具有良好的煤层气勘探潜力,是目前国内首个成功商业化开发的煤层气盆地。基于研究区已有地质成果,对影响沁水盆地煤层气富集成藏的主控地质因素与成藏模式进行分析,认为构造运动、水动力条件、煤层埋深、煤岩组成及热演化程度是控制沁水盆地煤层气成藏的主要地质因素,高镜质组含量、高热演化程度、弱水动力条件和较大的埋深是煤层气成藏的有利条件,向斜是煤层气富集成藏的有利部位。