Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns

Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km². The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.     

APG:A novel python-based ArcGIS toolbox to generate absence-datasets for geospatial studies

One important step in binary modeling of environmental problems is the generation of absence-datasets that are traditionally generated by random sampling and can undermine the quality of outputs.To solve this problem,this study develops the Absence Point Generation(APG)toolbox which is a Python-based ArcGIS toolbox for automated construction of absence-datasets for geospatial studies.The APG employs a frequency ratio analysis of four commonly used and important driving factors such as altitude,slope degree,topographic wetness index,and distance from rivers,and considers the presence locations buffer and density layers to define the low potential or susceptibility zones where absence-datasets are gener-ated.To test the APG toolbox,we applied two benchmark algorithms of random forest(RF)and boosted regression trees(BRT)in a case study to investigate groundwater potential using three absence datasets i.e.,the APG,random,and selection of absence samples(SAS)toolbox.The BRT-APG and RF-APG had the area under receiver operating curve(AUC)values of 0.947 and 0.942,while BRT and RF had weaker per-formances with the SAS and Random datasets.This effect resulted in AUC improvements for BRT and RF by 7.2,and 9.7％from the Random dataset,and AUC improvements for BRT and RF by 6.1,and 5.4％from the SAS dataset,respectively.The APG also impacted the importance of the input factors and the pattern of the groundwater potential maps,which proves the importance of absence points in environmental bin-ary issues.The proposed APG toolbox could be easily applied in other environmental hazards such as landslides,floods,and gully erosion,and land subsidence.     

Evaluation of Methods for Determining Crack Initiation in Compression Tests on Low-Porosity Rocks

Laboratory testing of rocks is traditionally carried out to determine the peak strength using the ISRM Suggested Methods or other suitable standards. However, it is well known that in low-porosity crystalline rocks there are at least three distinct stages of compressive loading that can be readily identified if the stress–strain response is monitored during the loading process: (1) crack initiation, (2) unstable crack growth, i.e., crack coalescence and (3) peak strength. Crack initiation is noted as the first stage of stress-induced damage in low-porosity rocks, yet the suggested guidelines of the ISRM for compression tests make no mention of crack initiation. In addition, recent research suggests that crack initiation can be used as an estimate for the in situ spalling strength, commonly observed around underground excavations in massive to moderately jointed brittle rocks. Various methods have been proposed for identifying crack initiation in laboratory tests. These methods are evaluated using ten samples of ?sp? Diorite and the results are compared with a simplified method, lateral strain response. Statistically, all methods give acceptable crack-initiation values. It is proposed that the ISRM Suggested Methods be revised to include procedures suitable for establishing the crack-initiation stress.     

Application of Discriminant Analysis and Support Vector Machine in Mapping Gold Potential Areas for Further Drilling in the Sari-Gunay Gold Deposit,NW Iran

In this contribution, we used discriminant analysis (DA) and support vector machine (SVM) to model subsurface gold mineralization by using a combination of the surface soil geochemical anomalies and earlier bore data for further drilling at the Sari-Gunay gold deposit, NW Iran. Seventy percent of the data were used as the training data and the remaining 30 % were used as the testing data. Sum of the block grades, obtained by kriging, above the cutoff grade (0.5 g/t) was multiplied by the thickness of the blocks and used as productivity index (PI). Then, the PI variable was classified into three classes of background, medium, and high by using fractal method. Four classification functions of SVM and DA methods were calculated by the training soil geochemical data. Also, by using all the geochemical data and classification functions, the general extension of the gold mineralized zones was predicted. The mineral prediction models at the Sari-Gunay hill were used to locate high and moderate potential areas for further infill systematic and reconnaissance drilling, respectively. These models at Agh-Dagh hill and the area between Sari-Gunay and Agh-Dagh hills were used to define the moderate and high potential areas for further reconnaissance drilling. The results showed that the nu-SVM method with 73.8 % accuracy and c-SVM with 72.3 % accuracy worked better than DA methods.     

Hydrogeological aspects of groundwater drainage of the urban areas in Kuwait City

Residential areas in Kuwait City have witnessed a dramatic rise in subsurface water tables over the last three decades. This water rise phenomenon is attributed mainly to over irrigation practices of private gardens along with leakage from domestic and sewage networks. This paper presents a comprehensive study for urban drainage in two selected areas representing the two hydrogeological settings encountered in Kuwait City. In the first area, a vertical drainage scheme was applied successfully over an area of 1 km². The system has been under continuous operation and monitoring for more than 4 years without problems, providing a permanent solution for the water rise problem in this area. The hydrogeological system has approached steady state conditions and the water levels have dropped to about 3·5 m below the ground surface. In the second area a dual drainage scheme, composing of horizontal and vertical elements, is proposed. Horizontal elements are suggested in the areas where the deep groundwater contains hazardous gases that may pose environmental problems. The proposed drainage scheme in the second area has not yet been implemented. Field tests were conducted to assess the aquifer parameters in both areas and a numerical model has been developed to predict the long‐term response of the hydrogeological system in the two areas under consideration. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Magnetized Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in the presence of a radiation field

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamical role of a radiation field on the growth rate of the unstable Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) perturbations. As a first step toward this purpose, the analyze is done in a general way, irrespective of applying the model to a specific astronomical system. The transition zone between the two layers of the fluid is ignored. Then, we perform a linear analysis and by imposing suitable boundary conditions and considering a radiation field, we obtain appropriate dispersion relation. Unstable modes are studied by solving the dispersion equation numerically, and then growth rates of them are obtained. By analyzing our dispersion relation, we show that for a wide range of the input parameters, the radiation field has a destabilizing effect on KH instability. In eruptions of the galaxies or supermassive stars, the radiation field is dynamically important and because of the enhanced KH growth rates in the presence of the radiation; these eruptions can inject more momentum and energy into their environment and excite more turbulent motions.     

Thin accretion disc with a corona in a central magnetic field

We study the steady-state structure of an accretion disc with a corona surrounding a central, rotating, magnetized star. We assume that the magneto-rotational instability is the dominant mechanism of angular momentum transport inside the disc and is responsible for producing magnetic tubes above the disc. In our model, a fraction of the dissipated energy inside the disc is transported to the corona via these magnetic tubes. This energy exchange from the disc to the corona which depends on the disc physical properties is modified because of the magnetic interaction between the stellar magnetic field and the accretion disc. According to our fully analytical solutions for such a system, the existence of a corona not only increases the surface density but reduces the temperature of the accretion disc. Also, the presence of a corona enhances the ratio of gas pressure to the total pressure. Our solutions show that when the strength of the magnetic field of the central neutron star is large or the star is rotating fast enough, profiles of the physical variables of the disc significantly modify due to the existence of a corona.     

The role of Kelvin–Helmholtz instability in dusty and partially ionized outflows

We investigate the linear theory of Kelvin–Helmholtz instability at the interface between a partially ionized dusty outflow and the ambient material analytically. We model the interaction as a multifluid system in a planar geometry. The unstable modes are independent from the charge polarity of the dust particles. Although our results show a stabilizing effect for charged dust particles, the growth time-scale of the growing modes gradually becomes independent of the mass or charge of the dust particles when the magnetic-field strength increases. We show that growth time-scale decreases with increasing the magnetic field. Also, as the mass of the dust particles increases, the growth time-scale of the unstable mode increases.     

Woody species diversity and forest structure from lowland to montane forest in Hyrcanian forest ecoregion

Alborz Mountains host Caspian Hyrcanian forest ecoregion along the northern slopes and forest steppe ecoregion in highlands. Hyrcanian forest covers the southeastern part of Caucasus biodiversity hotspot and is of great biogeographic importance. Altitudinal pattern and correlation between woody species biodiversity (DIV), forest structure ((stem density (DEN), mean basal area (MBA) and mean height class (MHC)) and disturbance (DIS) were explored along 2,400 m altitudinal gradient in Hyrcanian relict forest, Central Alborz Mountains. Vegetation changes from lowland forest (LoF) to mid- altitude forest (MiF) and montane forest (MoF) in this area. The altitudinal gradient was divided into twelve 200 m elevational belts. Point centered quarter method (PCQM) with 96 sampling points and 83 vegetation samples by plot method (PM) were used to record field data. Shannon-Wiener index and Pearson coefficient were used for diversity and correlation analysis. The results showed that DEN decreased linearly, MBA and MHC showed relatively hump shaped and DIS showed a reverse hump shaped pattern of change along altitudinal gradient. Woody species diversity decreased non-steadily from LoF to MoF. Transitional vegetations of Carpinus-Fagus and Fagus-Quercus represented higher diversity of woody taxa compared to adjacent homogenous communities. Significant correlation was observed between altitude and all parameters: DEN with MBA, DIS and DIV; MBA with DIS; MHC with DIS along with DIV; and DIS with DIV at the study area scale. Surprisingly,correlation between studied parameters differed within each vegetation type. Altitude probably acts as a proxy for human and environmental driving forces in this area. Stability of warm and wet condition, season length, soil depth along with forest accessibility probably influences the altitudinal pattern of the studied parameters. Disturbance affects forest structure and consequently diversity; especially in lowlands. The obtained results recommend using both forest biodiversity and mensuration data in management process of forest ecosystems.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.