Variation of human perceptiveness of earthquakes during seismic sequences

This paper describes the variation of the human perception of earthquakes under the peculiar condition of seismic sequence occurrence. To this aim, we chose and have analyzed four seismic sequences that reflect the most common models of seismicity occurrence in the Italian territory. Our data always refer to the epicentral area, so that the contribution of the epicentral distance to the earthquake sensitiveness is considered constant. To search for recurrent behavior of people in the perception of earthquakes, we crossed seismological data to sensitivity data coming from the archives of the Italian Civil Protection. In each sequence, we individuate a number of “indicators”, such as the rate between felt and not-felt events and the minimum magnitude for which 100% of the events are felt. Such indicators are proportional to the energy released by the sequence and can be particularly affected by the time protraction of the sequence, and/or by the different familiarity with the seismic phenomenon, and/or by the intensity of the emotional impact of a seismic crisis. The observed trends of sensitiveness show a significant variation of the people perceptivity within the sequence development. From the analysis of the dataset, one can distinguish the variation of perceptivity due to emotional factors from those due to physical factors. An important observation, which is confirmed by a statistical analysis, is that the source depth does not affect the perceptiveness of earthquakes. Finally, we find important differences between on-sequence and off-sequence human perceptiveness that are connected with the different levels of alert.     

Ecological Signatures of Anthropogenically Altered Tidal Exchange in Estuarine Ecosystems

One of the most conspicuous anthropogenic disturbances to estuaries worldwide has been the alteration of freshwater and tidal influence through the construction of water control structures (dikes, tide gates, culverts). Few studies have rigorously compared the responses of differing groups of organisms that serve as contrasting conservation targets to such anthropogenic disturbances in estuarine ecosystems. Elkhorn Slough in central California includes a spectrum of tidally restricted habitats behind water control structures and habitats experiencing full tidal exchange. To assess community composition for several different taxa in habitats with varying tidal exchange, we employed a variety of field approaches and synthesized results from several different studies. Overall, we found that communities at sites with moderately restricted tidal exchange were fairly similar to those with full tidal exchange, but those with extremely restricted tidal exchange were markedly different from other categories. These differences in community composition are likely the result of several factors, including restricted movement due to physical barriers, differences in water quality characteristics, and differences in habitat structure. Indeed, in this study, we found that water quality characteristics strongly vary with tidal restriction and may strongly influence patterns of species presence or absence. We also found that different conservation targets showed contrasting responses to variation in tidal exchange. Full exchange appears to favor native oysters, commercially valuable flatfish, migratory shorebirds, and site-level biodiversity. Minimal tidal exchange due to water control structures supports a suite of estuarine endemics (including the tidewater goby and California brackish snail) not represented elsewhere and minimizes invasions by non-native marine species. Altogether, our results suggest that total estuary-wide biodiversity may be enhanced with a mosaic of tidal exchange regimes.     

Use of CART analysis to differentiate pollen of red pine (Pinus resinosa) and jack pine (P. banksiana) in New England

The identification of fossil pollen at the generic rather than species level is hampering progress in understanding the biogeography and dynamics of paleo-vegetation. We used CART analysis to facilitate the differentiation of fossil pollen of Pinus banksiana and Pinusresinosa, which are morphologically similar and nearly always combined in paleoecological studies. The CART model, using four of the ten morphological traits measured, exhibited a high level of correct identification for pollen of each of the species and shows promise as a tool for increasing the detail of paleoecological records and inferences.     

Alternative conceptual models and the robustness of groundwater management scenarios in the multi-aquifer system of the Central Veneto Basin, Italy

A three-dimensional (3D) groundwater flow model of the deep multi-aquifer Quaternary deposits of the Po plain sedimentary basin, within a 3,300-km² area (Veneto, Italy), is developed, tested and applied to aid sustainable large-scale water-resources management. Integrated mathematical modelling proves significantly successful, owing to an unusual wealth of available geological, geophysical, and hydrologic data and to state-of-the-art numerical tools. Of particular interest is the evaluation of the influence of alternative conceptual models; that is, of reconstructed representations of the 3D geological model of the structure of the aquifers. The reference conceptual model is set up by means of extended geological sections and stratigraphic records, and is used to create a large, unstructured 3D finite element grid. By analyzing the effects on piezometric surfaces and on the overall water budget of geometrical perturbations from the reference structure, alternative geo-structural models, obtained by systematically shifting the pinch-out of the aquitards, are compared. Interestingly, the impacts of aquitard pinch-out prove far from negligible. The results suggest the critical importance of reliable geological models even for large, complex 3D models. The good practice of iteratively testing numerically the impact of surprises on the conceptual model, as more field information is collected, is thus supported.     

Infrared spectroscopic properties of goethite: anharmonic broadening,long-range electrostatic effects and Al substitution

The infrared spectrum and its temperature dependence (20–320 K) were collected on a synthetic goethite sample (α-FeOOH). In addition, the infrared powder absorption spectrum of goethite and aluminum-substituted goethite was computed using ab initio quantum mechanical calculations based on density functional theory. This combined experimental and theoretical approach allows (1) the unequivocal assignment of absorption bands to the corresponding vibrational modes, (2) separate identification of the effects of the particle shape and of the aluminum substitution on the infrared spectrum, and (3) a discussion of the anharmonic properties and the origin of the line broadening in goethite. In particular, the two well-resolved OH bending absorption bands show different temperature evolution. Their detailed analysis suggests that the broadening of the band at ~800 cm^?1 cannot be described solely by a usual three-phonon process. The strong anharmonic behavior of this mode implies the addition of a four-phonon process, such as a pure dephasing process. In our calculations, the effect of the Hubbard U correction is also investigated and found to be most visible on the OH stretching and bending modes, in relation to the associated structural relaxation. The OH stretching frequencies decrease, leading to a better agreement with experimental frequencies, while the OH bending frequencies increase.     

Damage assessment through structural identification of a three‐story large‐scale precast concrete structure

This paper investigates the damage assessment of a three‐story half‐scale precast concrete building resembling a parking garage through structural identification. The structure was tested under earthquake‐type loading on the NEES large high‐performance outdoor shake table at the University of California San Diego in 2008. The tests provide a unique opportunity to capture the dynamic performance of precast concrete structures built under realistic boundary conditions. The effective modal parameters of the structure at different damage states have been identified from white‐noise and scaled earthquake test data with the assumption that the structure responded in a quasi‐linear manner. Modal identification has been performed using the deterministic‐stochastic subspace identification method based on the measured input–output data. The changes in the identified modal parameters are correlated to the observed damage. In general, the natural frequencies decrease, and the damping ratios increase as the structure is exposed to larger base excitations, indicating loss of stiffness, development/propagation of cracks, and failure in joint connections. The analysis of the modal rotations and curvatures allowed the localization of shear and flexural damages respectively and the checking of the effectiveness of repair actions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Addressing some critical aspects of the BepiColombo MORE relativity experiment

The Mercury Orbiter Radio science Experiment (MORE) is one of the experiments on-board the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission to Mercury, to be launched in October 2018. Thanks to full on-board and on-ground instrumentation performing very precise tracking from the Earth, MORE will have the chance to determine with very high accuracy the Mercury-centric orbit of the spacecraft and the heliocentric orbit of Mercury. This will allow to undertake an accurate test of relativistic theories of gravitation (relativity experiment), which consists in improving the knowledge of some post-Newtonian and related parameters, whose value is predicted by General Relativity. This paper focuses on two critical aspects of the BepiColombo relativity experiment. First of all, we address the delicate issue of determining the orbits of Mercury and the Earth–Moon barycenter at the level of accuracy required by the purposes of the experiment and we discuss a strategy to cure the rank deficiencies that appear in the problem. Secondly, we introduce and discuss the role of the Solar Lense–Thirring effect in the Mercury orbit determination problem and in the relativistic parameters estimation.     

Environmental and socioeconomic dynamics of the Indian Ocean tsunami in Penang,Malaysia

This paper addresses some of the environmental and socioeconomic dimensions of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on Penang, Malaysia. We aim to offer wide access to unique and perishable data, while at the same time providing insight to ongoing debates about hazards, vulnerability and social capital. Our social survey examines some of the dynamics that shaped the tsunami impact, response and recovery process. While in terms of lives lost Penang may not conform to arguments surrounding vulnerable environments, the recovery process is more marked by social disparities in terms of the ability to access resources. Our physical survey records local topography, flow depth and flow direction, and charts the differential impact of the tsunami. Yet measuring hazards is not a straightforward process, and relies on reflexive methodologies and eyewitness accounts.     

On Blind Tests and Spatial Prediction Models

This contribution discusses the usage of blind tests, BT, to cross-validate and interpret the results of predictions by statistical models applied to spatial databases. Models such as Bayesian probability, empirical likelihood ratio, fuzzy sets, or neural networks were and are being applied to identify areas likely to contain events such as undiscovered mineral resources, zones of high natural hazard, or sites with high potential environmental impact. By processing the information in a spatial database, the models establish the relationships between the distribution of known events and their contextual settings, described by both thematic and continuous data layers. The relationships are to locate situations where similar events are likely to occur. Maps of predicted relative resource potential or of relative hazard/impact levels are generated. They consist of relative values that need careful quantitative scrutiny to be interpreted for taking decisions on further action in exploration or on hazard/impact mitigation and avoidance. The only meaning of such relative values is their rank. Obviously, to assess the reliability of the predicted ranks, tests are indispensable. This is also a consequence of the impracticality of waiting for the future to reveal the goodness of our prediction. During the past decade only a few attempts have been made by some researchers to cross-validate the results of spatial predictions. Furthermore, assumptions and applications of cross-validations differ considerably in a number of recent case studies. A perspective for all such experiments is provided using two specific examples, one in mineral exploration and the other in landslide hazard, to answer the fundamental question: how good is my prediction?     

Evidence for short-lived oscillations in the biological records from the sediments of Lago Albano (Central Italy) spanning the period ca. 28 to 17 k yr BP

We report the results of analyses of pigments (derived from algae and photosynthetic bacteria), diatoms and invertebrate fossil remains (ostracods, cladocerans, chironomids) in two late Pleistocene sediment cores from Lago Albano, a crater lake in Central Italy. The record contains evidence for oscillations in lake biota throughout the period ca. 28 to 17 k yr BP. The earliest of these are contained in the basal 3.5 m of light olive-gray and yellowish-gray spotted muds sampled in core PALB 94-1E from 70 m water depth. The later oscillations are best represented in the more extended sediment sequence recovered from a second core site, PALB 94-6B, in 30 m water depth. The sediments at site 1E, containing the earlier oscillations (ca. 28-24 k yr BP), predate any sedimentation at the shallower site, from which we infer an initially low lake level rising to permit sediment accumulation at site 6B from ca. 24 k yr onwards. At site 6B, massive silts rich in moss remains are interbedded with laminated silts and carbonates. These sediments span the period ca. 24 to 17 k yr and are interpreted as representing, respectively, times of shallow water alternating with higher lake stands, when the lake was stratified and bottom water was stagnant. A range of mutually independent chronological constraints on the frequency and duration of the oscillations recorded in the lake biota indicate that they were aperiodic and occurred on millennial to century timescales. We interpret them as responses to climate forcing through its impact on lake levels and changing aquatic productivity. The time span they occupy, their frequency and their duration suggest that at least some of these changes may parallel both the Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores and the contemporary oscillations in North Atlantic circulation documented in marine sediment cores.