震群活动和地震预报综述

研究震群和大地震的关系、用前兆震群预报未来地震的发生,是世界范围内比较活跃的课题之一。文章例举了震群的一些指标以说明前兆性震群的预报意义,并从大范围的众多震群活动阐述大震前震群活动的一些特征。根据震群的分布可确定未来大震的发生地点,并解释不同类型震群的力学成因。     

走滑断裂带中挤压阶区内部剪切构造初探

野外地质调查和航片立体镜下解译发现,小江断裂带北段蒙姑和东支大营盘两个挤压阶区内部发育有剪切构造,它们在地表主要表现为断裂槽地、断层陡坎、地裂缝等。挤压阶区内部剪切构造和拉张阶区内部剪切构造一样,是阶区形成后,随着走滑断裂的进一步活动而形成的新生性构造     

灰色系统理论在二连洪浩尔舒特凹陷储层评价中的应用

本文利用测井资料,依据测井地质评价油气储层的分析准则,提出灰色理论精细评价油气储层的处理方法和解释系统。通过二连洪浩尔舒特凹陷储层的精细评价和综合解释,取得了明显的效果。文中介绍了这一分析方法处理过程及实用效果。     

UPPER CRUSTAL VELOCITY STRUCTURE AND CONSTRAINING FAULT INTERPRETATION FROM SHUNYI-TANGGU REFRACTION EXPERIMENT DATA

The urban active fault survey is of great significance to improve the development and utilization of urban underground space, the urban resilience, the regional seismic reference modeling, and the natural hazard prevention. The Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region with the densest population is one of the most developed and most important urban groups, located at the northeastern North China plain. There are several fault systems crossing and converging in this region, and most of the faults are buried. The tectonic setting of the faults is complex from shallow to deep. There are frequent historical earthquakes in this area, which results in higher earthquake risk and geological hazards. There are two seismicity active belts in this area. One is the NE directed earthquake belt located at the east part of the profile in northern Ninghai near the Tangshan earthquake region. The other is located in the Beijing plain in the northwest of the profile and near the southern end of Yanshan fold belt, where the 1679 M8.0 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake occurred, the largest historical earthquake of this area. Besides, there are some small earthquake activities related to the Xiadian Fault and the Cangdong Fault at the central part of the profile.
The seismic refraction experiment is an efficient approach for urban active fault survey, especially in large- and medium-size cities. This method was widely applied to the urban hazard assessment of Los Angeles. We applied a regularized tomography method to modeling the upper crustal velocity structure from the high-resolution seismic refraction profile data which is across the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region. This seismic refraction profile, with 185km in length, 18 chemical explosive shots and 500m observation space, is the profile with densest seismic acquisition in the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region up to now. We used the trial-error method to optimize the starting velocity model for the first-arrival traveltime inversion. The multiple scale checker board tests were applied to the tomographic result assessment, which is a non-linear method to quantitatively estimate the inversion results. The resolution of the tomographic model is 2km to 4km through the ray-path coverage when the threshold value is 0.5 and is 4km to 7km through the ray-path coverage when the threshold value is 0.7. The tomographic model reveals a very thick sediment cover on the crystalline basement beneath the Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region. The P wave velocity of near surface is 1.6km/s. The thickest sediment cover area locates in the Huanghua sag and the Wuqing sag with a thickness of 8km, and the thinnest area is located at the Beijing sag with a thickness of 2km. The thickness of the sediment cover is 4km and 5km in the Cangxian uplift and the Dacang sag, respectively. The depth of crystalline basement and the tectonic features of the geological subunits are related to the extension and rift movement since the Cenozoic, which is the dynamics of formation of the giant basins.
It is difficult to identify a buried fault system, for a tomographic regularization process includes velocity smoothing, and limited by the seismic reflection imaging method, it is more difficult to image the steep fault. Velocity and seismic phase variations usually provide important references that describe the geometry of the faults where there are velocity differences between the two sides of fault. In this paper, we analyzed the structural features of the faults with big velocity difference between the two sides of the fault system using the velocity difference revealed by tomography and the lateral seismic variations in seismograms, and constrained the geometry of the major faults in the study region from near surface to upper crust. Both the Baodi Fault and the Xiadian Fault are very steep with clear velocity difference between their two sides. The seismic refraction phases and the tomographic model indicate that they both cut the crystalline basement and extend to 12km deep. The Baodi Fault is the boundary between the Dachang sag and the Wuqing sag. The Xiadian Fault is a listric fault and a boundary between the Tongxian uplift and the Dachang sag. The tomographic model and the earthquake locations show that the near-vertical Shunyi-Liangxiang Fault, with a certain amount of velocity difference between its two sides, cuts the crystalline basement, and the seismicity on the fault is frequent since Cenozoic. The Shunyi-Liangxiang Fault can be identified deep to 20km according to the seismicity hypocenters.
The dense acquisition seismic refraction is a good approach to construct velocity model of the upper crust and helpful to identify the buried faults where there are velocity differences between their two sides. Our results show that the seismic refraction survey is a useful implement which provides comprehensive references for imaging the fault geometry in urban active fault survey.     

1980～1994年台湾海峡两岸的地热涡与降水季度预报初探

利用１９８０～１９９４年大陆３．２ｍ深度和台湾３．０ｍ深度的地温资料,分析了１５ａ来的逐季地气图,统计了台湾海峡两岸的地热涡活动,发现平均每季有１个地热涡活动,其水平尺度比大陆内部的地热涡要小,生命史也要短,进入台湾地区的地热涡绝大多数是从西方和北方进入,其移动速度比大陆内部的要快得多。９０％以上的地热涡在同期有多雨区与其对应,热涡中心与多雨中心相距在１００ｋｍ以内者占６８％。最后给出了一个季度降水的定性预测方案,其步骤为：预报地热涡的中心位置、强度和水平尺度;推算降水正距平区的水平尺度、中心位置和强度;根据本区发生的地震等情况进行预报订正。     

陕西省人工神经元网络降水年,季度预报系统

利用Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经元网络进行了陕西省年度,季度降水预报试验,提出了利用０－１模型解决多等级预报问题的方法,并建立了年度,季度等级预报模型,经过试验,表明该方法预报效果良好,最后对模式在应用中的一些问题及目前其它预报模型的差异等进行了讨论。     

天文底片保存和我国天文底片数字化的建议

阐述了国际上天文照相底片数字化工作的进展:底片的保存、底片数字化的意义和相关技术。扼要地介绍了国际虚拟天文台的情况及其与底片数字化的关系。分析了我国天文底片资料的保存现状,并提出了底片数字化建议:成立由各天文台专家组成的全国底片数字化协调小组,建立各单位保存底片的信息库、改进底片的保存条件、有步骤地对有价值底片上的全部目标进行扫描,以便将其与现代高精度的观测资料相结合,开展有意义的课题研究。     

磁弧剪切动力学的一个精确解

我们在文[1]里对磁弧剪切作了数值解,得到了剪切速度ω和磁场B_z的分析解,但对二维速度(u,v)的振幅占δ′/ζ仅有只依赖于时间的近似解。本文在密度为常数条件下得到了磁弧剪切在线性演化阶段的较精确的解析解,比较了密度为常数和密度重力分层两种情形下的数值解,证实当β(=气压/磁压)很小(量级为10~(-2))时两者差别不大,因此本文结果近似可用于密度不为常数的实际太阳大气中的磁弧剪切动力学过程。解析解的主要结果是导出振幅δ′/ζ的高度依赖关系:随着时间增加,振幅δ′/ζ随高度下降越来越慢。这导致磁弧顶越升越高而脚根基本上不朝外移动,这样闭合的磁弧将有可能逐渐变为开场。     

A Model for Contact Binary Systems

A model for contact binary systems is presented, which incorporates the following special features: a) The energy exchange between the components is based on the understand-ing that the energy exchange is due to the release of potential, kinetic and thermal energies of the exchanged mass. b) A special form of mass and angular momentum loss occurring in contact binaries is losses via the outer Lagrangian point. c) The effects of spin, orbital rota-tion and tidal action on the stellar structure as well as the effect of meridian circulation on the mixing of the chemical elements are considered. d) The model is valid not only for low-mass contact binaries but also for high-mass contact binaries. For illustration, we used the model to trace the evolution of a massive binary system consisting of one 12M and one 5M star. The result shows that the start and end of the contact stage fall within the semi-detached phase during which the primary continually transfers mass to the secondary. The time span of the contact stage is short and the mass transfer rate is very large. Therefore, the contact stage can be regarded as a special part of the semi-detached phase with a large mass transfer rate. Both mass loss through the outer Lagrangian point and oscillation between contact and semi-contact states can occur during the contact phase, and the effective temperatures of the primary and the secondary are almost equal.     

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light(WL) associated with major flares.We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon.In total,we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17,including 40 X-class,174 M-class,and 189 C-class flares.By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer(TRACE),we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares;and that,on the other hand,the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened.These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions.Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares.For X-class flares,over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change.For M-and C-class flares,this percentage drops to 17% and 10%,respectively.The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture,i.e.,the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.