Copula‐based joint probability function for PGA and CAV: a case study from Taiwan

This study aims to develop a joint probability function of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and cumulative absolute velocity (CAV) for the strong ground motion data from Taiwan. First, a total of 40,385 earthquake time histories are collected from the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. Then, the copula approach is introduced and applied to model the joint probability distribution of PGA and CAV. Finally, the correlation results using the PGA‐CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals are compared. The results indicate that there exists a strong positive correlation between PGA and CAV. For both the PGA and CAV empirical data and the normalized residuals, the multivariate lognormal distribution composed of two lognormal marginal distributions and the Gaussian copula provides adequate characterization of the PGA‐CAV joint distribution observed in Taiwan. This finding demonstrates the validity of the conventional two‐step approach for developing empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) of multiple ground motion parameters from the copula viewpoint. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The structural,geometric and volumetric changes of a polythermal Arctic glacier during a surge cycle: Comfortlessbreen,Svalbard

Various parameters of the most recent surge of the polythermal glacier Comfortlessbreen in northwest Svalbard, have been assessed through a combination of remote sensing and ground observations. Analysis of a digital elevation model time‐series shows a marked change in the geometry of the glacier from quiescence (1990 and earlier) into the late surge phase (2009). The transfer of 0.74 km³ of ice caused up to 80 m of surface drawdown in the reservoir area, above the equilibrium line, whilst ice built up in a spatially concentrated manner in the receiving zone, below the equilibrium line. A ramp of ice, c. 100 m above quiescent level, developed in the lower reaches of the glacier late in the surge. Also in the lower reaches of the glacier, structures attributable to the passage of a kinematic wave are identified and the migration of a surge front on the glacier is thus inferred. In a conceptual model, we consider that a bend in the valley, in which the glacier resides, and convergence with tributary glaciers, to be significant factors in the style of surge evolution. Their flow‐restrictive interference results in slow initial mass‐transfer and the growth of a surge front within 3–4 km of the terminus. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring large wood retention and deposition in contrasting river morphologies linking numerical modelling and field observations

Large wood tends to be deposited in specific geomorphic units within rivers. Nevertheless, predicting the spatial distribution of wood deposits once wood enters a river is still difficult because of the inherent complexity of its dynamics. In addition, the lack of long‐term observations or monitored sites has usually resulted in a rather incomplete understanding of the main factors controlling wood deposition under natural conditions. In this study, the deposition of large wood was investigated in the Czarny Dunajec River, Polish Carpathians, by linking numerical modelling and field observations so as to identify the main factors influencing wood retention in rivers. Results show that wood retention capacity is higher in unmanaged multi‐thread channels than in channelized, single‐thread reaches. We also identify preferential sites for wood deposition based on the probability of deposition under different flood scenarios, and observe different deposition patterns depending on the geomorphic configuration of the study reach. In addition, results indicate that wood is not always deposited in the geomorphic units with the highest roughness, except for low‐magnitude floods. We conclude that wood deposition is controlled by flood magnitude and the elevation of flooded surfaces in relation to the low‐flow water surface. In that sense, the elevation at which wood is deposited in rivers will differ between floods of different magnitude. Therefore, together with the morphology, flood magnitude represents the most significant control on wood deposition in mountain rivers wider than the height of riparian trees. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological response of an afforested catchment in a Mediterranean humid mountain area: a comparative study with a natural forest

The effects of afforestation on water resources are still controversial. The aim of this paper is to (i) analyse the hydrological response of an afforested area in the Central Pyrenees and (ii) compare the hydrological response of an afforested area with the response observed in a natural undisturbed forest. The Araguás catchment was cultivated until the 1950s, and then afforested with pines in an effort to control the active degradation processes. The hydrological response was variable and complex, because the discharge was generated by a combination of distinct runoff processes. The hydrological response showed that (i) afforestation produced moderate peak discharges, stormflows and recession limbs, and long rising limbs; (ii) no one single variable was able to explain the hydrological response: rainfall volume and intensity did not explain the hydrological response and antecedent rainfall and initial discharge (indicating antecedent moisture conditions) did play an important role; (iii) seasonal differences were observed suggesting different runoff generating processes; and (iv) the effect of forest cover on peak discharges became less important as the size of the hydrological event increased. The stormflow coefficient showed a clear seasonal pattern with an alternation between a wet period, when the catchment was hydrologically responsive, and a dry summer period when the catchment rarely responded to any event, and two transitional periods (wetting and drying). Compared with a natural forest, the afforested area recorded greater flows and peak discharges, faster response times and shorter recession limbs. Afforestation reduces the water yield and the number of floods compared with non‐vegetated areas and abandoned lands. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of anthropogenic land‐use change on hillslope erosion in the Waipaoa River Basin,New Zealand

European settlement of the Poverty Bay Region resulted in deforestation and conversion of > 90% of the landscape to pastureland. The resulting loss of vegetation triggered a rapid increase in hillslope erosion as widespread landslide complexes and gully systems developed on weak lithologic units in the Waipaoa Basin. To quantify the rate and volume of historic hillslope degradation, we used a 1956–2010 sequence of aerial photographs for a ~16 km² catchment to map temporal changes in the spatial extent of active landslides. Then we created a ‘turf index’ based on the extent and style of pastoral ground disruption, which correlates with downslope velocity. Based on the movement of trees and other features, we assigned average velocities to the turf classes as follows: (1) minimal disrupted ground: 0.6 m/yr, (2) a mix of disrupted ground and intact blocks: 3.4 m/yr, and (3) no intact blocks or vegetation: > 6 m/yr. We then calculated the average annual sediment flux using these turf‐derived velocities, the width of the landslide‐channel intersection, and an average toe depth of 4.4 ± 1.3 m (mean ± standard deviation [SD]) from 37 field measurements. The resulting catchment averaged erosion rates are (mean ± SD): 29.9 ± 12.9 mm/yr (1956), 28.8 ± 13.7 mm/yr (1969), 13.4 ± 4.9 mm/yr (1979), 17.0 ± 6.2 mm/yr (1988), and 9.9 ± 3.6 mm/yr (2010). Compared with long‐term (post‐18 ka) erosion rates (1.6 mm/yr) and the long‐term uplift rate (~1 mm/yr) for this site, the 50‐year anthropogenically‐driven rate is an order of magnitude larger (~20 mm/yr). Previously, we measured an increase in erosion over the past 3.4 kyr (2.2 mm/yr), and here, we demonstrate this increase could be primarily due to human land‐use change – showing that a century of rapid erosion superimposed on the background geologic rate can profoundly skew the interpretation of erosion rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alongshore variability of cross‐shore bar behavior on a nontidal beach

We report on a 6‐year nearshore bathymetric dataset from the Danube Delta (Romanian Black Sea coast) that comprises 16 km of erosive, stable and accumulative low‐lying micro‐tidal beaches northward of Sf. Gheorghe arm mouth. Two to three two‐dimensional longshore sandbars exhibit a net multi‐annual cyclic (2.8–5.5 years) offshore migration (20–50 m yr^?1) in a similar way to other coasts worldwide. Bar morphology and behavior on the sediment‐rich accretionary (dissipative) sector differ substantially from that on the erosive (intermediate) sector. Shoreface slope is the most important factor controlling sandbar number and behavior. It determines different wave‐breaking patterns in the surf zone, translated into different offshore sediment transport and bar zone widths along the study site. Additionally, sediment availability, as a result of the distance from the arm mouth and of the long‐term evolution of the coast, controls the sandbar volume variability. These are all ultimately reflected in the variations of sandbar migration rates and cycle periods. A non‐dimensional morpho‐sedimentary parameter is finally presented, which expresses the bar system change potential as offshore sediment transport potential across the bar zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Graphical methods of river profile analysis to unravel drainage area change,uplift and erodibility contrasts in the Central Range of Taiwan

To reveal river channel steepness patterns and variance in settings with significant variation in rock uplift rate, rock erodibility and moving water divides, we present a series of graphical methods to interpret channel profiles. To complement Cartesian χ plots, longitudinal profiles and mapping methods, we introduce a new method based on a radial coordinate system. We map each basin onto polar coordinates in which the radial dimension is χ and the azimuthal coordinate, ?, is calculated with an increment (Δ?) scaled to the distance to neighboring channel heads. The elevation is contoured on this mapping. Average channel steepness is estimated by fitting a conical surface to the elevation. The graph simplifies the comparison of χ and elevation between channels that share a divide, and helps identify spatial changes in drainage area and patterns of erodibility. We apply this approach to derive the uplift pattern in the eastern and southern Central Range of Taiwan, where the high tectonic convergence and uplift rates combined with sub‐tropical climate and frequent typhoons results in high exhumation rate, and well‐developed, detachment‐limited river networks. Additionally, the tectonic activity leads to drainage basin reorganization. We identify examples of divide migration, discrete river capture as well as anomalous steepness that we attribute to local variability in rock erodibility. Estimated basin‐average steepness values show the highest and a near constant value from Hsinwulu basin to Liwu basin in the center of the Island. To the north and south of this region, the values gradually decrease. These estimates show good correlation with the topography of the Central Range and erosion rates derived from in situ ¹⁰Be concentrations in river‐borne quartz. We conclude that the basin steepness reflects systematic differences in rock uplift rate and erosion rate. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphic monitoring and response to two dam removals: rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (Basque Country,Spain)

Dam removal has been demonstrated to be one of the most frequent and effective fluvial restoration actions but at most dam removals, especially of small dams, there has been little geomorphological monitoring. The results of the geomorphological monitoring implemented in two dams in the rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (northern Spain) are presented. The one from the River Urumea, originally 3.5 m high and impounding 500 m of river course, was removed instantaneously whereas that in the River Leitzaran, 12.5 m high, and impounding 1500 m of river course, is in its second phase of a four‐stage removal process. Changes in channel morphology, sediment size and mobility and river bed morphologies were assessed. The monitoring included several different techniques: topographical measurements of the channel, terrestrial laser scanner measurements of river bed and bars, sediment grain size and transport; all of them repeated in four (May, August, November 2011 and May 2012) and five (July and September 2013, April and August 2014 and June 2015) fieldwork campaigns in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively. Geomorphic responses of both dam removals are presented, and compared. Morphological channel adjustments occurred mainly shortly after dam removals, but with differences among the one removed instantaneously, that was immediate, whereas that conducted by stages took longer. Degradational processes were observed upstream of both dams (up to 1.2 m and 4 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively), but also aggradational processes (pool filling), upstream of Inturia Dam (2.85 m at least). Less evident aggradational processes were observed downstream of the dams (up to 0.37 m and 0.50 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively). Flood events, especially a 100 year flood registered during the monitoring period of Mendaraz Dam removal, reactivated geomorphological processes as incision and bank erosion, whereas longitudinal profile recovery, grain‐size sorting and upstream erosion took longer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A modified landform development model for the topography of drained thermokarst lake basins in fine‐grained sediments

Permafrost degradation associated with the expansion of thermokarst lakes is commonly interrupted by catastrophic drainage. Subsequently, in tundra areas, permafrost aggradation in drained basins leads to uneven topography characterized by raised centres and wet, depressed margins. The genesis of such topography has been investigated in Old Crow Flats (OCF), a glaciolacustrine plain in the continuous permafrost of northern Yukon. The thermokarst lakes of OCF have a mean depth of only 1.5 m because excess ice is dominantly found only in the uppermost 10 m of the ground. Surface conditions were measured in three drained thermokarst lake basins, including relief, snow conditions, ground temperatures, near‐surface ground ice, and sediment stratigraphy. Four nearby lakes provided information on wave base, shore recession patterns, and bathymetry before drainage: the bottoms of these lakes were not raised in the centre. An elevation difference of up to 2 m was recorded between drained basin margins and centres but was not associated with variations in ice‐wedge density or segregated ice content. Hence basin topography was not controlled by differences in volumetric ground‐ice content between margins and centres. We propose that transport of fine sediment away from eroding lake margins during lake development is the primary mechanism for the genesis of depressed margins and raised centres in drained basins of OCF. Over time, the transport results in the deposition of more and finer sediment in the central parts of lakes, where the lake bottom has subsided below wave base, than at the shallow margins, where resuspension by wave action occurs frequently. This difference in sediment volume is revealed in the topography after drainage, when permafrost aggrades in the lake‐bottom sediment and underlying talik. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.