Induced Groundwater Flux by Increases in the Aquifer's Total Stress

Fluid‐filled granular soils experience changes in total stress because of earth and oceanic tides, earthquakes, erosion, sedimentation, and changes in atmospheric pressure. The pore volume may deform in response to the changes in stress and this may lead to changes in pore fluid pressure. The transient fluid flow can therefore be induced by the gradient in excess pressure in a fluid‐saturated porous medium. This work demonstrates the use of stochastic methodology in prediction of induced one‐dimensional field‐scale groundwater flow through a heterogeneous aquifer. A closed‐form of mean groundwater flux is developed to quantify the induced field‐scale mean behavior of groundwater flow and analyze the impacts of the spatial correlation length scale of log hydraulic conductivity and the pore compressibility. The findings provided here could be useful for the rational planning and management of groundwater resources in aquifers that contain lenses with large vertical aquifer matrix compressibility values.     

Multi‐dimensional analyses of the SEAM controlled source electromagnetic data—the story of a blind test of interpretation workflows

Using a subset of the SEG Advanced Modeling Program Phase I controlled‐source electromagnetic data, we apply our standard controlled‐source electromagnetic interpretation workflows to delineate a simulated hydrocarbon reservoir. Experience learned from characterizing such a complicated model offers us an opportunity to refine our workflows to achieve better interpretation quality. The exercise proceeded in a blind test style, where the interpreting geophysicists did not know the true resistivity model until the end of the project. Rather, the interpreters were provided a traditional controlled‐source electromagnetic data package, including electric field measurements, interpreted seismic horizons, and well log data. Based on petrophysical analysis, a background resistivity model was established first. Then, the interpreters started with feasibility studies to establish the recoverability of the prospect and carefully stepped through 1D, 2.5D, and 3D inversions with seismic and well log data integrated at each stage. A high‐resistivity zone is identified with 1D analysis and further characterized with 2.5D inversions. Its lateral distribution is confirmed with a 3D anisotropic inversion. The importance of integrating all available geophysical and petrophysical data to derive more accurate interpretation is demonstrated.     

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Framework for Groundwater Prediction under Uncertainty

Groundwater prediction models are subjected to various sources of uncertainty. This study introduces a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a hierarchical structure and conduct BMA for concentration prediction. A BMA tree of models is developed to understand the impact of individual sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation to model predictions. HBMA evaluates the relative importance of different modeling propositions at each level in the BMA tree of model weights. The HBMA method is applied to chloride concentration prediction for the “1,500‐foot” sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana from 2005 to 2029. The groundwater head data from 1990 to 2004 is used for model calibration. Four sources of uncertainty are considered and resulted in 180 flow and transport models for concentration prediction. The results show that prediction variances of concentration from uncertain model elements are much higher than the prediction variance from uncertain model parameters. The HBMA method is able to quantify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the total uncertainty.     

Efficient Bayesian sensor placement algorithm for structural identification: a general approach for multi‐type sensory systems

In this paper, a Bayesian sequential sensor placement algorithm, based on the robust information entropy, is proposed for multi‐type of sensors. The presented methodology has two salient features. It is a holistic approach such that the overall performance of various types of sensors at different locations is assessed. Therefore, it provides a rational and effective strategy to design the sensor configuration, which optimizes the use of various available resources. This sequential algorithm is very efficient due to its Bayesian nature, in which prior distribution can be incorporated. Therefore, it avoids the possible unidentifiability problem encountered in a sequential process, which starts with small number of sensors. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated using a shear building and a lattice tower with consideration of up to four types of sensors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative failure metric for gravity dams

Quantitative failure monitoring is a critical tool for safety assessment of concrete dams. This includes damage occurrence, intensity, location, number, size, and propagation pattern. Such an assessment is essential for a quantifiable prioritization of repair and will thus reduce overall cost and improve safety. This paper will address this timely topic through the nonlinear transient analysis of a dam and failure will be ascertained through a multi‐scale damage index. A damage‐plastic model for mass concrete is used, Drucker‐Prager elasto‐plastic one for the foundation, and infinite elements are used for far‐field boundaries. Water‐dam interaction is accounted for through fluid finite elements. It is determined that the proposed damage indices can indeed provide a quantitative metric for the degree of failure in gravity dams in terms of the input dynamic motion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of web plate numerical models for self‐centering steel plate shear walls

Previous research has shown that self‐centering steel plate shear walls (SC‐SPSWs) are capable of achieving enhanced seismic performance at multiple hazard levels, including recentering following design‐level earthquakes. When modeling SC‐SPSWs numerically, these studies considered an idealized tension‐only steel plate shear wall (SPSW) web plate behavior. Research has shown that web plate behavior is more complex than predicted by the idealized model, and web plates can provide more strength, stiffness, and energy dissipation than predicted by the idealized model. The idealized model of web plate behavior is used widely in SPSW numerical models where the moment‐resisting boundary frame provides supplemental hysteretic damping and stiffness; however, in SC‐SPSWs, where the post‐tensioned boundary frame is designed to remain elastic during an earthquake, accounting for the more complex web plate behavior can have a significant impact on seismic performance estimates from numerical simulation. This paper presents different methods for modeling SC‐SPSWs. Responses from these models are compared with experimental results. A simple modification of the tension‐only model, referred to as the tension‐compression strip model, is shown to provide a reasonable approximation of SC‐SPSW behavior. Results from nonlinear response history analyses of SC‐SPSWs with the tension‐only and tension‐compression web plate models are compared to assess how the approximation of web plate behavior affects SC‐SPSW seismic performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Intensity measures for probabilistic assessment of non‐structural components acceleration demand

A fundamental issue in the framework of seismic probabilistic risk analysis is the choice of ground motion intensity measures (IMs). Based on the floor response spectrum method, the present contribution focuses on the ability of IMs to predict non‐structural components (NSCs) horizontal acceleration demand. A large panel of IMs is examined and a new IM, namely equipment relative average spectral acceleration (E‐ASA_R), is proposed for the purpose of NSCs acceleration demand prediction. The IMs efficiency and sufficiency comparisons are based on (i) the use of a large dataset of recorded earthquake ground motions; (ii) numerical analyses performed on three‐dimensional numerical models, representing actual structural wall and frame buildings; and (iii) systematic statistical analysis of the results. From the comparative study, the herein introduced E‐ASA_R shows high efficiency with respect to the estimation of maximum floor response spectra ordinates. Such efficiency is particularly remarkable in the case of structural wall buildings. Besides, the sufficiency and the simple formulation allowing the use of existing ground motion prediction models make the E‐ASA_R a promising IMs for seismic probabilistic risk assessment. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aftershock seismic assessment taking into account postmainshock residual drifts

This paper introduces and evaluates a methodology for the aftershock seismic assessment of buildings taking explicitly into account residual drift demands after the mainshock (i.e., postmainshock residual interstory drifts, RIDR_o). The methodology is applied to a testbed four‐story steel moment‐resisting building designed with modern seismic design provisions when subjected to a set of near‐fault mainshock–aftershock seismic sequences that induce five levels of RIDR_o. Once the postmainshock residual drift is induced to the building model, a postmainshock incremental dynamic analysis is performed under each aftershock to obtain its collapse capacity and its capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the capacity to reach or exceed a 2% residual drift). The effect of additional sources of stiffness and strength (i.e., interior gravity frames and slab contribution) and the polarity of the aftershocks are examined in this study. Results of this investigation show that the collapse potential under aftershocks strongly depends on the modeling approach (i.e., the aftershock collapse potential is modified when additional sources of lateral stiffness and strength are included in the analytical model). Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the aftershock capacity associated to demolition (i.e., the aftershock collapse capacity associated to a residual interstory drift that leads to an imminent demolition) is lower than that of the aftershock collapse capacity, which mean that this parameter should be a better measure of the building residual capacity against aftershocks. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Insights into the formation of rock varnish in prevailing dusty regions

The characteristics of rock varnish from the Campo de Piedra Pomez (CPP, Andes Argentina) provides new insights into the development of rock varnish under severe dusty conditions. The CPP varnish has been analysed using SEM‐EDAX and Raman techniques. The rock coating is tens of microns in thickness and under the microscope shows a micro to cryptocrystalline appearance and a general granular texture. Silica (quartz, cristobalite and amorphous silica) is the main phase forming these coverings followed by Al, K and Na compounds. Minor Fe oxides and Mn oxides are the source for the orange (Fe) and brown (Fe and Mn) hues of the coating. The results obtained for the CPP coating show that desert varnish developed under dusty circumstances does not have the appearance of typical rock varnish. Textural characteristics include high crystallinity and granular arrangement of the components. Moreover the absence of typical microlaminations is related to the presence of aeolian mineral grains which inhibit their development. The main mechanism of formation of rock varnish under such environmental circumstances is the direct incorporation of aeolian mineral grains into the varnish. However, other physicochemical processes are also required to explain the formation of varnish components such as amorphous silica or iron oxides phases. Although the development of the desert varnish may act as a protector of the underlying pyroclastic rock, the extreme and persistent windy conditions in the CPP field are high enough to weather and erode not only the rock coating but also the original ignimbrite. As other warm desert sites on Earth, the CPP area can also be considered as possible terrestrial analogue to Mars. Some environmental attributes might be similar to those expected on the Martian surface and thus, textural similarities between the CPP varnish and the rock varnish‐like coating of Mars are likely. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A 13‐year record of erosion on badland sites in the Karoo,South Africa

Land degradation in South Africa has been of concern for more than 100 years with both climate change and inappropriate land management (overgrazing) being proposed as primary drivers. However, there are few quantitative studies of degradation and, in particular, few of erosion by water. Badlands, taken here to be the landform which results from extreme erosion, have been notably neglected. We report on 13 consecutive years of erosion pin measurements of badland erosion on 10 study sites in the Sneeuberg uplands of the eastern Karoo in South Africa. The study sites are on Holocene colluvium which mantles footslopes. They have been subject to overgrazing for at least 100 years, c. 1850–1950. Currently they are lightly grazed by sheep. The area receives about 500 mm rainfall per year. The sites are remote, with only informal, farmer‐operated, daily raingauges nearby. The nearest sub‐daily raingauge is c. 55 km distant. Also we report on an analysis of the erosion pin data which focuses on establishing the origins and context of the badlands, including the relationship between study sites and adjacent valley‐bottom gully systems; compare erosion rates on our study sites with rates determined by erosion pins on other badland sites; and discuss the implications of these erosion rates for landscape development and off‐site impacts. Net erosion rates on the study sites are relatively high compared with global badland rates and range from 3.1 to 8.5 mm yr^‐1 which may be extrapolated to 53 to 145 t ha yr^‐1 (using a measured bulk density of 1.7 g cm^‐3). However, comparisons with badland sites elsewhere are difficult because of different measuring methodologies, lithologies, climate and dominant processes. Erosion rates on the study sites are strongly influenced by rainfall amounts and, in particular, by daily rainfall events which exceed ~10 mm: this is the threshold intensity at which runoff has been observed to commence on badlands. Of significance, but of lesser influence, is weathering, mainly by wetting and drying: this prepares bare surfaces for erosion. However, questions remain regarding the role of site characteristics, and of processes at each site, in determining between‐site differences in erosion rate. Crude extrapolation of current rates of erosion, in conjunction with depths of incision into the badlands, suggests that badland development started around 200 years ago, probably as a response to the introduction of European‐style stock farming which resulted in overgrazing. We assume, but cannot quantify, the additional influence of periods of drought and burning in the erosional history of the area. Intermittent connection of these badlands to valley‐bottom gullies and therefore to small farm dams and ultimately to large water storage reservoirs increases their impact on local water resources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.