2015年尼泊尔MS8.1大地震孕育的深层过程与发生的动力学响应

2015年4月25日发生在尼泊尔博克拉M_S8.1大地震的深层动力过程与“地中海-喜马拉雅-南亚地震带”的中段喜马拉雅地震活动带密切相关.这次大地震是该地震强烈活动带上长期以来深部物质与能量强烈交换、运动,并导致构造活动和应力积累的产物.综合分析与研究提出：（1）博克拉M_S8.1大地震的孕育、发生和发展具有长期活动和近年来相邻地带地震活动频繁的背景;这一地带自1505年-2015年,即500多年来相继发生多次M_S≥8.0的大地震.（2）这一地带具有特异的地球物理边界场响应和深层动力过程,显示深部物质的重新分异、调整与能量交换.（3）大地震发生与周边地带应力场分布特异,壳、幔结构与介质属性变异及破裂响应与断层面解的属性相关.（4）喜马拉雅地带的三条北倾断裂带以不同角度向深部延伸、震源位置及浅表层的变形特征尚应深化理解.（5）M_S8.1大地震的发生对相邻地带的波场影响强烈,故应强化高精度地球物理场的观测和探测,以“捕捉”未来可能大地震的孕育与发生.     

Spatial behaviour of Rayleigh waves in layered half‐spaces under active surface sources

In the free state, Rayleigh waves are assumed to travel in the form of planar wavefronts. Under such an assumption, the propagation behaviour of the modes of Rayleigh waves in layered half‐spaces is only frequency dependent. The frequency behaviour, which is often termed as dispersion, is determined by the shear wave velocity profile of layered soils within the depth related to wavelength (or frequency). According to this characteristic, the shear wave velocity profile can be back‐analysed from the dispersion. The technique is widely used in the surface wave testing. However, the wavefronts of Rayleigh waves activated by the surface sources are non‐planar. The geometric discrepancy could result in Rayleigh waves manifesting distance‐dependent behaviour, which is referred to as spatial behaviour in this paper. Conventional analysis ignoring this spatial behaviour could introduce unexpected errors. In order to take the effects of sources on the propagation behaviour into account, a new mathematical model is established for Rayleigh waves in layered elastic media under vertical disc‐like surface sources using the thin‐layer method. The spatial behaviour of the activated modes and the apparent phase velocity, which is the propagation velocity of Rayleigh waves superposed by the multiple modes, are then analysed. Aspects of the spatial behaviour investigated in this paper include the equilibrium path, the particle orbit, and the geometric attenuation of the activated Rayleigh waves. The results presented in this paper can provide some guidelines for developing new inverse mathematical models and algorithms.     

加勒比板块多学科研究综述及其对地震预测的启示

2010年1月12日海地M_W7.0地震打破了Enriquillo断层近240余年的地震平静期, 可能意味着加勒比地区新的活跃周期的到来。 本文通过收集该地区地质构造演化、 地球物理场、 发震构造、 震源物理、 运动学特征及应力场演化等方面的研究成果, 分析由于海地地震的发生所带来的区域地震危险性等相关认识的改变。 通过对多学科资料的梳理, 分析利用多学科研究成果开展加勒比地区地震危险性分析的基本思路, 以期为未来的中国大陆区域动力学模型构建、 地震预测预报研究提供基础参考。     

地震前兆仪器管理系统建设

长期以来,对前兆台网仪器的管理缺乏系统性。为此,研发了前兆仪器管理系统。该系统实现了对前兆仪器从购买到淘汰整个生命周期的管理,其中包括安装、接入、运行、故障、停测、报废等,以及仪器故障维修流程的管理,其中包括故障登记、处理、维修、备机备件库等。基于这些信息,对仪器及故障维修情况进行综合统计分析,为管理决策提供信息支持。本文主要介绍了该系统设计的一些主要技术方面和系统实现的主要功能。     

The NE Directed Seismicity Belt in Tibet after the MS8.1 Nepal Earthquake and Its Predictive Significance

After the 2015 M_S8.1 Nepal earthquake, a strong and moderate seismicity belt has formed in Tibet gradually spreading along the northeast direction. In this paper, we attempt to summarize the features and investigate the primary mechanism of this behavior of seismic activity, using a 2-D finite element numerical model with tectonic dynamic settings and GPS horizontal displacements as the constraints. In addition, compared with the NE-trending seismicity belt triggered by the 1996 Xiatongmoin earthquake, we discuss the future earthquake hazard in and around Tibet. Our results show that:the NE-directed seismicity belt is the response of enhanced loading on the anisotropic Qinghai-Tibetan plateau from the Indian plate and earthquake thrusting. Also, this possibly implies that a forthcoming strong earthquake may fill in the gaps in the NE-directed seismicity belt or enhance the seismic hazard in the eastern (the north-south seismic zone) and western (Tianshan tectonic region) parts near the NE-directed belt.     

面向地震应急的山区人口百米格网分布——以麟游县为例

破坏性地震发生后,山区易发生滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害。精细化人口空间分布数据能够有效提升灾情评判精度,为应急救援决策提供参考依据。本文以陕西省麟游县为例,利用"天地图"高分辨率遥感影像解译大比例尺居民地数据,结合人口、行政区划等数据,利用GIS（地理信息系统）技术制作100 m×100 m格网人口分布数据。通过与陕西省地震局现有人口空间数据进行对比,发现百米格网人口分布数据可明显提升山区次生灾害影响人口计算结果的可靠性。     

Time-lag effects of vegetation responses to soil moisture evolution: a case study in the Xijiang basin in South China

The time-lag effects of droughts on vegetation responses vary significantly across a large-scale river basin. The spatio-temporal response characteristics obtained are important for decision making processes on the allocation and transportation of regional water resources in mitigating drought impacts. Here we consider the Xijiang (West River) basin in South China as a case study, which has experienced severe drought events since the beginning of the 21st century. A threshold level approach is employed to identify the major drought events over the basin in the first decade of this century. The vegetation responses to land soil water evolution are examined, particularly for the severe drought events occurred. The time-lag effects of the vegetation responses within the basin range within 0–96 days. The lower reaches of the headwater sub-basins in the west part of the Xijiang basin are identified as the regions with short time-lag effects. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) shows consistent responses to the soil water evolution in conjunction with the climate aridity in this area, which is the drought-vulnerable area in the Xijiang basin.     

Experimental study on the shear behavior of the interface between cushion materials and the concrete raft

Cushion is a layer of granular materials between the raft and the ground. The shear behavior of the interface between the cushion and the raft may influence the seismic performance of the superstructure. In order to quantify such influences, horizontal shear tests on the interfaces between different cushion materials and concrete raft under monotonic and cyclic loading were carried out. The vertical pressure P_v, material type and cushion thickness h_c were taken as variables. Conclusions include: 1) under monotonic loading, P_v is the most significant factor; the shear resistance P_(hmax) increases as P_v increases, but the normalized factor of resistance μ_n has an opposite tendency; 2) for the materials used in this study, μ_n varies from 0.40 to 0.70, the interface friction angle δ_s varies from 20° to 35°, while u_(max) varies from 3 mm to 15 mm; 3) under cyclic loading, the interface behavior can be abstracted as a "three-segment" back-bone curve, the main parameters include μ_n, the displacement u_1 and stiffness K_1 of the elastic stage, the displacement u_2 and stiffness K_2 of the plastic stage; 4) by observation and statistical analysis, the significance of different factors, together with values of K_1, K_2 and μ_n have been obtained.     

Numerical study on transient harbor oscillations induced by successive solitary waves

Tsunamis are traveling waves which are characterized by long wavelengths and large amplitudes close to the shore. Due to the transformation of tsunamis, undular bores have been frequently observed in the coastal zone and can be viewed as a sequence of solitary waves with different wave heights and different separation distances among them. In this article, transient harbor oscillations induced by incident successive solitary waves are first investigated. The transient oscillations are simulated by a fully nonlinear Boussinesq model, FUNWAVE-TVD. The incident successive solitary waves include double solitary waves and triple solitary waves. This paper mainly focuses on the effects of different waveform parameters of the incident successive solitary waves on the relative wave energy distribution inside the harbor. These wave parameters include the incident wave height, the relative separation distance between adjacent crests, and the number of elementary solitary waves in the incident wave train. The relative separation distance between adjacent crests is defined as the ratio of the distance between adjacent crests in the incident wave train to the effective wavelength of the single solitary wave. Maximum oscillations inside the harbor excited by various incident waves are also discussed. For comparison, the transient oscillation excited by the single solitary wave is also considered. The harbor used in this paper is assumed to be long and narrow and has constant depth; the free surface movement inside the harbor is essentially one-dimensional. This study reveals that, for the given harbor and for the variation ranges of all the waveform parameters of the incident successive solitary waves studied in this paper, the larger incident wave heights and the smaller number of elementary solitary waves in the incident tsunami lead to a more uniform relative wave energy distribution inside the harbor. For the successive solitary waves, the larger relative separation distance between adjacent crests can cause more obvious fluctuations of the relative wave energy distribution over different resonant modes. When the wave height of the elementary solitary wave in the successive solitary waves equals to that of the single solitary wave and the relative separation distance between adjacent crests is equal to or greater than 0.6, the maximum oscillation inside the harbor induced by the successive solitary waves is almost identical to that excited by the single solitary wave.     

Analytic wave series solution of out-of-plane(SH) waves diffraction by an almost semi-circular shallow cylindrical hill

A closed-form wave equation analytic solution of two-dimensional scattering and diffraction of outof-plane(SH) waves by an almost semi-circular shallow cylindrical hill on a flat, elastic and homogeneous half space is proposed by applying the discrete Fourier series expansions of sine and cosine functions. The semi-circular hill problem is discussed as a special case for the new formulated equation.Compared with the previous semi-circular cases solutions, the present method can give surface displacement amplitudes which agrees well with previous results. Although the proposed equation can only solve the problem of SH-waves diffracted by almost semi-circular shallow hills, the stress and displacement residual amplitudes are numerical insignificantly everywhere. Moreover, the influences of the depth-towidth ratio(a parameter defined in this paper to evaluate the shallowness of the topography of hills) on ground motions are presented and summarized. The limitations and errors of truncation from Graf's addition theorem and Fourier series equations in the present paper are also discussed.