滇西南地震活动特征分析

对滇西南1970年以来所有M≥4.6级地震前的空间活动图像进行研究,用地震频度作为参数描述地震前区域的地震活动增强与平静现象,用空区、条带描述地震的孕震过程,得到以下认识:①地震频度增加是滇西南地区5级以上地震前的共性特征;②滇西南地区M≥4.6级地震前出现空区的比例随着地震震级的增加而有所增加,4.6~4.9级地震前只有60%的地震出现空区,5.0~5.9级地震前有90.9%的地震出现空区,而6.0级以上地震前全部出现空区;③空区平均持续时间也随着震级的加大而增加,空区平均持续时间为13.58个月,最短为3个月,最长为37个月;④主震位置(27/33)多发生在空区边缘(含长轴端12次、短轴端8次)。震前出现条带的规律则不明显。     

马衔山北缘断裂西段地震动场估计的震源模型

为估计近场地震动场,研究了设定在邻近兰州市马衔山北缘断裂西段一个6.5级地震的震源模型。在这个混合震源模型中有2类震源参数。全局参数主要根据区域地壳结构、区域地震活动性和半经验标定公式确定。局部参数分两组,一组是描述凹凸体的,主要根据详细的活断层探查资料和标定公式确定;另一组是k平方模型参数,依标定公式估算。文中展示了生成震源模型的6个例子。最后,依选定的计算点随机合成的地震动反应谱选定了代表平均特征的震源模型。     

土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响

岩土工程中存在许多不确定性,建筑物抗震规范设计中的标准设计谱实际代表着一种平均结果,并没有考虑到场地土体非线性参数的变异性。文中采用数值模拟的方法研究了土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响。给出了考虑土非线性参数变异性的概率设计谱。结果表明,土非线性参数变异性对标准设计谱的影响显著;粘性土和无粘性土的动剪切模量比对标准设计谱的影响决定于土非线性参数的概率水准,同时也取决于概率设计谱的频段;烈度7度、8度和9度下土体动剪切模量比变异性使标准设计谱平台最大变化50%、80%和100%,阻尼比变异性使标准设计谱平台最大变化40%、45%和60%。     

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测项目建设及震源重复性分析

甘肃祁连山主动源重复探测激发源位于甘肃省张掖市祁连山西流水水库,2015年7月9日各系统开始正式运行,11月10日完成了为期40天的连续激发实验。观测资料处理结果表明,气枪震源具有良好的一致性和可重复性,整个观测系统能比较清晰地记录到震源激发的信号。祁连山主动源项目建设取得的结果可为主动源探测工作提供宝贵经验和科学借鉴,不断取得的观测数据为跟踪了解祁连山地区的深部结构时空变化提供了可能。     

基于高频GNSS的2014年于田MS7.3级地震的同震位移研究

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.     

Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin,Australia

Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments.     

High-resolution crustal structure of the Yinchuan basin revealed by deep seismic reflection profiling: implications for deep processes of basin

The Yinchuan basin, located on the western margin of the Ordos block, has the characteristics of an active continental rift. A NW-striking deep seismic reflection profile across the center of Yinchuan basin precisely revealed the fine structure of the crust. The images showed that the crust in the Yinchuan basin was characterized by vertical stratifications along a detachment located at a two-way travel time(TWT) of 8.0 s.The most outstanding feature of this seismic profile was the almost flat Mohorovicˇic′ discontinuity(Moho) and a high-reflection zone in the lower crust. This sub-horizontal Moho conflicts with the general assumption of an uplifted Moho under sedimentary basins and continental rifts, and may indicate the action of different processes at depth during the evolution of sedimentary basins or rifts.We present a possible interpretation of these deep processes and the sub-horizontal Moho. The high-reflection zone, which consists of sheets of high-density, mantlederived materials, may have compensated for crustal thinning in the Yinchuan basin, leading to the formation of a sub-horizontal Moho. These high-density materials may have been emplaced by underplating with mantlesourced magma.     

艾比湖区域地表水水化学特征干湿季变化及其控制因素

对2014年艾比湖区域的地表水进行观测和取样,综合运用多元统计、Piper阴阳离子三角图、Gibbs图等方法,对艾比湖区域干湿季地表水化学特征及控制因素进行了分析.结果表明：在湿季5月,Na⁺和Cl^-是占绝对优势的离子,分别占阳离子和阴离子总量的70.34%和52.97%,其次是Mg²⁺和SO₄^2-;在干季10月,Na⁺和Cl^-是占绝对优势的离子,分别占阳离子和阴离子总量的70.57%和66.48%,其次是Mg²⁺和SO₄^2-.进而判断出在湿季,艾比湖区域地表水水化学类型为以碳酸盐岩石和蒸发岩来源为主的HCO₃^--Ca²⁺-Na⁺型;而在干季,艾比湖区域地表水水化学类型为以碳酸盐岩石和蒸发岩来源为主的HCO₃^--Ca²⁺型.此外,探讨了离子控制的因素.就自然因素而言,在干湿季,艾比湖区域地表水化学离子组成受岩石风化作用和蒸发结晶作用的共同影响,大气降水的输入作用十分微弱.就人为因素而言,根据相关研究,干湿季人为活动中的主要因素是人口和地区生产总值,说明该区域受到人为活动的影响.本研究为我国干旱地区对于河水水化学变化、水质特征、水质保护都具有重要的意义.     

养护温度对水泥固化淤泥强度影响试验研究

采用水泥固化海泥（CSMC）作为围海垦地填料正在被广泛关注。由于水化放热,当环境温度较高时大体积填筑的CSMC内部实际养护温度可能明显高于室内标准养护温度（≈ 20 ℃）,这必然会对CSMC的强度发展产生影响,但目前工程实践中并未考虑这一温度差异的影响。因此,基于室内试验,测试了不同配合比CSMC试样在不同养护温度下的强度发展过程,并重点探讨了养护温度对CSMC强度发展的影响规律及其内在机制。结果表明：养护温度对CSMC强度发展影响显著,高的养护温度不仅会显著提高CSMC的早期强度,而且会比较明显地提高CSMC的晚期强度,这就意味着在CSMC垦地工程实践中考虑养护温度的影响是十分必要的。鉴于此,文中最后给出了如何在CSMC垦地工程实践中考虑养护温度对强度发展影响的建议和设计流程。     

泥底辟输导流体机制及其与天然气水合物成藏的关系

摘要：详细阐述不同成因的泥底辟流体输导模式,探讨了泥底辟输导体系的演化与天然气水合物成藏之间的关系,并分析神狐海域泥底辟输导体系对天然气水合物成藏的影响。底辟核外部伴生断裂、底辟核内部流体压裂裂缝和边缘裂缝带均可作为输导流体的通道。根据运移通道和动力等差异性,提出泥底辟输导流体的2种端元模式：超压-流体压裂输导型和边缘构造裂缝输导型。在此基础上,讨论了泥底辟(泥火山)的不同演化阶段对水合物的形成、富集和分解的影响。早期阶段,泥底辟形成的运移通道可能未延伸到水合物稳定带,导致气源供给不够充分;中期阶段,水合物成藏条件匹配良好,利于天然气水合物生成;晚期阶段,泥火山喷发引起水合物稳定带的热异常,可能导致水合物分解,直至泥火山活动平静期,水合物再次成藏。神狐海域内泥底辟分为花冠状和穹顶状两类,花冠状泥底辟以超压-流体压裂输导型为主;穹顶状泥底辟以底辟边缘裂缝输导型为主。泥底辟输导体系的差异性可能是神狐海域天然气水合物非均质分布的影响因素之一。 关键词：泥底辟;输导体系;天然气水合物;成藏机制;神狐海域