社会经济权重约束下的时空地理加权回归方法

时空地理加权回归方法本质上是一种局部回归,容易放大局部的时空效应,而减小或者忽略了影响因素全局上的重要程度,造成估计偏差.为了解决这个问题,该文提出一种社会经济权重约束下的时空地理加权回归方法,在计算时空权重矩阵的同时,采用客观赋值法,利用各社会经济因素间的对比强度和冲突性,从全局角度计算各社会经济因素的权重,再基于各因素权重估算相对应的回归系数.以京津冀地区生产性服务业影响因素分析为例,进行实验验证.结果 表明,新方法的RMSE和SSE比传统GTWR的分别提升了75.08％、93.9％,R2提升了13.4％,有效弥补了GTWR放大时空非平稳特征、忽略社会经济因素重要程度的不足,提升模型拟合效果.     

The Asymmetrical Eruption of a Quiescent Filament and Associated Halo CME

We will present detailed observations of the asymmetrical eruption of a large quiescent filament on 24 November 2002, which was followed by a two-ribbon flare, three coronal dimmings, endpoint brightenings, and a very fast halo-type coronal mass ejection (CME). Before the eruption, the filament lay along the main neutral line (MNL) underneath a single-arcade helmet streamer with a simple bipolar configuration. However, photospheric magnetic fields on both sides of the filament showed an asymmetrical distribution, and the filament and MNL were not located just at the center of the streamer base but were closer to the eastern leg of the streamer arcade. Therefore, instead of erupting along the streamer’s symmetrical axis, the filament showed a nonradial and asymmetrical eruption. It lifted from the eastern flank of the streamer arcade to impact the western leg directly, leading to an asymmetrical CME that expanded westward; eventually the streamer was disrupted significantly. Accordingly, the opposite-polarity coronal dimmings at both sides of the filament forming in the eruption also showed an asymmetrical area distribution. We thus assume that the streamer arcade could guide the filament at the early eruption phase but failed to restrain it later. Consistent with previous results, these observations suggest that the global background magnetic field can impose additional action on the initial eruption of the filament and CME, as well as the dimming configuration.     

InSAR与概率积分法联合的矿区地表沉降精细化监测方法

结合InSAR与概率积分法的优势,提出一种InSAR和概率积分法联合进行矿区地表沉降的精细化监测方法.该方法首先计算InSAR时序累积沉降盆地,进而建立判别大梯度形变的约束条件,区分沉降边缘与沉降中心.对于形变较小的沉降边缘,保留InSAR结果,而对于大梯度沉降中心,则结合InSAR与概率积分模型建立矿区工作面的沉降盆地,并通过空间插值,获取地理坐标系下连续的地表沉降信息,最终得到完整的矿区地表沉降结果.论文以山东某矿区为研究区域,采用2016年10月16日 2018年3月4日期间的21景SAR影像和工作面水准实测数据对该方法的可行性和精度进行了验证.结果 表明,该方法能够在减少水准监测工作量的前提下,获得与实际情况相吻合的沉降结果,其监测能力明显优于常规InSAR和概率积分法,可有效弥补两种技术单独在矿区地表沉降监测中的不足,获取更为准确、可靠的矿区地表沉降信息.     

A modified Raupach's model applicable for shear-stress partitioning on surfaces covered with dense and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements

A commonly used measure to prevent soil wind erosion is to cover the surface with gravel. Gravel can inhibit soil erosion by covering the surface directly, changing the airflow field near the surface and sharing the shear stress of wind. Similar to other roughness elements, the protective effect of gravel on soil is usually expressed in terms of the ratio of the shear stress on the exposed soil surface to the total shear stress on the rough surface due to wind, i.e. through a shear-stress partitioning model. However, the existing shear-stress partitioning models, represented by Raupach's model (RM93), are only applicable when the lateral coverage of the roughness elements, λ < 0.10, and the applicability of the models to flat-shaped roughness elements is unclear. The purpose of this study is to verify the applicability of RM93 for dense and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements by using shear-stress data from wind-tunnel measurements pertaining to roughness elements with different densities (0.013 ≤ λ ≤ 0.318) and flat shapes (height-to-width ratios in the range 0.20 ≤ H/W ≤ 0.63), and to modify RM93 to enhance its predictive ability. The results indicate that RM93 cannot accurately predict the shear-stress partitioning for surfaces covered by densely distributed and flat-shaped gravel roughness elements. This phenomenon occurs because, when roughness elements are distributed densely or are flat-shaped, the proportion of the shear stress on the top surface of the roughness elements (τ_c) to the total shear stress (τ) is large; in this case, τ_c plays a dominant role and serves as an essential component in the shear-stress partitioning model. Consequently, RM93 is modified by incorporating τ_c into the calculation of τ. Under conditions of λ < 0.32 and H/W > 0.2, the modified RM93 can yield satisfactory predictions regarding the shear-stress partitioning.     

云南地区强震前小震调制比特征分析

利用调制比时空扫描方法,对1973—2014年云南地区M_S≥6.0地震进行回溯性研究,分析强震前区域小震调制比时空演化过程。结果显示,从小震调制比异常开始至发震的持续时间为1.5 a之内,调制比异常的最高值需大于0.57,强震多发生在调制比为最高值时或其后14个月内异常区边界或内部调制比显著高值附近,震级随异常持续时间的延长大致呈增加的趋势;小滇西—滇西北地区的强震多发生在调制期内;从分区来看,滇西南强震多发生在调制比为最高值（R_m≥0.57）后6个月内的异常边界处,尤其是3个月内,滇西北强震多发生在最高值（R_m≥0.67）后7—12月内异常区内显著高值附近,滇东北强震多发生在最高值（R_m≥0.67）时的异常区内。     

地下流体数据跟踪事件质量分析

以地下流体数据跟踪分析产出事件为研究对象,总结数据跟踪分析工作现状,从观测系统故障、自然环境、场地环境、人为干扰、地球物理、不明原因事件6个方面,分析2019年地下流体数据跟踪分析存在的问题,并对典型事件进行总结,为地震台站跟踪分析事件记录提供参考。     

无线节点采集技术在东部复杂地表区地震勘探中的应用及效果

随着东部老油田油气勘探程度的不断提升,后续复杂地质目标的勘探对地震资料的分辨率和成像精度提出了更高要求,导致地震采集方案日趋强化,野外采集作业投入的设备数量急剧增加,地震勘探面临巨大的成本压力.面对东部老油区人口稠密、地表障碍密集的特点,无线节点具有放样不受地物制约、自主连续接收、采集排列可室内灵活定义的优势;与可控震源高效激发技术相配套,可实现复杂地表区三维地震采集的高效作业,从而缩短地震采集工期,缓解地震勘探成本的压力.2020年东方地球物理公司辽河物探处在辽河坳陷SJP地区的三维勘探表明,无线节点采集技术在复杂地表区适用可行,可以有效提高复杂地质目标的成像精度,是东部老油区地震勘探技术经济一体化的发展方向.     

梁板分离式分层隔震结构减震原理研究

为了拓宽隔震技术的应用范围,提出了梁板分离式分层隔震结构概念,其核心思想是将框架结构或框架剪力墙结构中的所有楼层或某些楼层的全部或部分楼板通过橡胶隔震支座支承于梁上。建立了分层隔震结构的动力分析模型,利用自编程序按时程分析法和振型分解反应谱法分别计算了不同工况下分层隔震结构的地震反应,运用隔震技术的基本原理和振型分析法分析了刚度比和场地条件等因素对减震效果的影响。发现了刚度比变化过程中分层隔震结构的两个极限状态,并利用其中之一初步判断减震效果。     

海底声学底质分类技术的研究现状与前景

对海底声学底质分类技术的研究现状进行了分析。介绍了目前典型的底质分类设备、软件以及可采取的分类方法,探讨了我国开展海底声学底质分类技术研究、开发的可行性与具体实现的思路。     

激光参量对CPT铷原子钟稳定度影响的数值分析

为具体分析激光参量对相干布居囚禁(CPT)原子钟的稳定度性能的影响,在(-型三能级原子系统模型的基础上,采用半经典密度矩阵方法,数值模拟计算了不同激光参量对CPT铷原子钟共振谱线信号的影响,并给出了比较分析.结果显示:两束激光强度的不对称对CPT钟信号强度的影响很大,而激光频率失谐对CPT钟信号影响较小;此外,当激光强度不对称与频率失谐同时存在时,荧光信号谱出现不对称,微波辐射信号发生频移.