2004年气象因子对棉花生长的影响

针对2004年石河子气象因子对棉花减产的影响进行分析,得出棉花减产因素为:春季土墒、花期暴雨、铃期低温、病虫害、早霜,并提出了相应的对策。     

天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征及其变化趋势

以天山公路沿线9个气象水文站1956～2005年年降水量资料为依据,采用均值统计参数和线性方程分析了天山公路沿线年降水量分布特征以及变化趋势,在此基础上,应用小波分析方法对天山公路沿线各桩号代表站年降水量做周期分析,结果表明:天山公路沿线多数路段的年降水时间序列包含了多个不同时间尺度的周期变化和演变特征,具有10～17a、8～9a以及5a以下的周期变化,10～30a时间尺度突变点多出现于20世纪80年代熏     

华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆

文中应用NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa逐日资料对影响华北盛夏旱涝的环流特征进行分析,给出了盛夏旱涝分别与“西高东低”和“东高西低”流型的对应关系。并进一步研究初夏与盛夏的环流演变特征,得知若在6月500 hPa华北出现异常增高过程时,则盛夏多出现“西高东低”流型,华北少雨;反之,6月华北出现异常低压过程时,盛夏多出现“东高西低”流型,华北多雨。6月华北高压区环流特征与盛夏的环流型相关系数达0.597,与华北中部盛夏降水相关系数为0.562,为初夏进行盛夏旱涝短期气候预测提供了依据。以此为根据建立了初夏对于天津盛夏降水短期气候预测的经验方法,在2002—2004年的业务应用中预报趋势都是正确的。     

中国人工增雨研究进展

随着全球气候变暖的加剧,水资源短缺问题表现得越来越突出,如何有效地开发利用空中水资源已成为人们关注的热点问题之一。本文回顾了人工增雨的发展历史,概述了当今国内外人工增雨的发展状况,归纳了各地区云状、积云特征、液态含水量、冰晶浓度等云物理特征,并在此基础上对我国各地区尤其是西北地区的增雨潜力进行了分析,最后归纳总结了人工增雨的常用手段、经验和检验人工增雨效果的方法。     

北非和青藏高原感热振荡特征及与我国东部夏季降水的关系

利用EOF方法,分析了NCEP/NCAR 1948—2002年再分析资料中月平均全球地面感热资料,揭示了北非和青藏高原感热的振荡特征。分析了振荡关键区的感热距平与我国东部51个测站1951—2000年汛期降水距平的相关关系,用SVD方法分析了关键区感热距平场与我国东部51个测站全年各月降水距平场的空间耦合和时滞关系及关键区感热异常对我国东部降水异常的影响。结果表明,北非和青藏高原两个区域的感热变化呈负相关,它们对我国华北、江淮和华南三个区域的汛期降水滞后影响明显。感热对我国降水的影响以年代际为主。     

Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.     

Characteristics of Aerosol Ionic Compositions in Summer 2003 at Lin''''an of Yangtze Delta Region

With the size-resolved aerosol mass and ion composition data obtained at Lin'an regional atmospheric pollution monitoring station in July 2003, the size distributions of aerosol mass and ionic components, and the correlations between major ion pairs were analyzed. The primary results indicate that in the period of in-situ measurement, the aerosols are mainly composed of fine particles. The mass of aerosols with size less than 2.1μm accounts for 66% of the total mass of all size ranges, in which about 50% of the mass is contributed by the particles with size less than 0.65μm. Similar to the size distributions of aerosol mass, the water-soluble ions are mainly concentrated in the size range of <0.65μm, accounting for about 77% of the sum of analyzed ions, and the ions within the range of <2.1μm reach 88%. The sulfate, ammonium, and potassium are the dominant ionic components in fine particles (particle size less than 2.1μm). Ion correlation analysis suggests that the sulfates in fine particles are mostly in the compounds of (NH4)2SO4, Na2SO4, and K2SO4, but for submicron particles the sulfates are mainly in the form of (NH4)2SO4.     

北京市部分地区土壤和植物中多环芳烃的分布

研究了北京市区东部、东南部和西南部不同功能区土壤和绿化植物中多环芳烃（PAHs）的分布特征，讨论了土壤和植物叶片中多环芳烃质量分数的相关性。结果表明：车流量较多的路边土壤PAHs质量分数很高，西城区北京杨叶片中PAHs质量分数较高；相同采样点的土壤与植物叶片中多环芳烃的质量分数相关显著。     

回归分析方法在地震科学应用中的问题与探讨

分析了回归分析方法在地震科学应用中存在的问题,提出了按变量之间的物理关系进行分类回归的新观点。针对实际地震问题给出了具体的分类方案,从理论上论述了不同类型问题采用不同的回归方法的必要性。通过对实际地震问题分析,剖析了现有回归分析方法的优缺点和适用条件。在此基础上,对不同类型统计问题如何选用适当的回归分析方法提出了合理的建议。     

EFFECT OF FLOW CONDITIONS ON 3D MOVEMENT CHARACTERISTICS OF PARTICLES

1 INTRODUCTION The mechanism of particle movement in the flow is one of basic problems of sediment transport research. The conventional measurement approaches usually disturb the structure of the flow, consequently inducing errors. With the development of…