一次副热带高压边缘的局地冰雹多普勒雷达回波特征分析

2007年7月26日傍晚在浙江省中部发生大冰雹天气,经分析认为,这是发生在副热带高压边缘的局地冰雹过程,移动不明显,影响范围小,但强度特强.降雹前回波 VIL 值突升,降雹时反而下降;有气旋式辐合流场;雹暴云中部近气旋流场且辐合中心向右前方倾斜,回波强度越强时,其倾斜度越大;下击暴流征状的出现时间较晚,持续时间较短.     

贮存环境对气球升空高度的影响初探

施放高度是高空气象探测五项业务考核指标之一，研究气球贮存环境对探测高度的影响，对提高探测高度服有直接的关系。     

广西冰雹气候统计分析及减灾对策

统计分析了1956年以来以来广西冰雹的时空分布特征及影响因子,并提出了减灾对策。广西冰雹集中在2～5月,主要发生在14～19时;北多南少,西多东少,山区比沿海多;大范围冰雹过程可分为高原东部深槽型;南支槽型;华北深槽型。其中南支槽是冰雹天气的最主要系统;冰雹次数与拔海高度正相关,与年平均气温负相关。     

日较差分级的新疆逐时气温预报

利用1994-2005年新疆12个基准站逐时气温资料,统计了不同日较差等级内的逐时气温和逐时气温变量的气候平均值,并在此基础上自动地输出新疆逐站逐时气温预报值,由此得到与气温变化有关的专业气象预报产品,应用于专业气象业务。     

昌吉州棉区棉花生育期气候条件分析

为了深入开展棉花气象服务,对昌吉州主要棉区的气温、降水和日照等与棉花生长发育密切相关的气候资料进行了全面的统计分析,得出昌吉州主要棉区影响棉花生长发育的主要气象因素:播种期的霜冻、苗期的低温、花铃期的高温和吐絮期的低温和全生育期的热量。     

虚拟参考站技术（VRS）在城市控制网应用中的精度分析

介绍了VRS技术的概念、工作原理、技术方法以及影响VRS测量精度的几大关键因素，通过对试验数据大量的比测与研究，将影响测量精度的因素进行了深入的探讨与分析。     

哈尔滨市冬季烟幕天气诊断分析

利用哈尔滨1960～2005年烟幕出现次数进行气候分析,找出了烟幕冬季的月、年变化规律,统计发现哈尔滨市烟幕日主要出现在冬季(11、12、1、2)4个月,并通过对哈尔滨市2000～2005年6a烟幕资料详细分析,结合烟幕发生时的天气特征,以及烟幕与各项天气要素之间的关系,找出烟幕的气象预报着眼点。烟幕日多产生在高压系统控制下,冬季烟尘排放量多、风速较小、大气层结稳定(常有逆温层存在)是多烟幕的主要原因。     

Testing the Ability of Numerical Model to Simulate Climate and Its Change With 4D-EOF Analysis

The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function (4D-EOF), which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF (3D-EOF) and extended EOF (EEOF), is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-E0F analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 70G-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields (4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km) and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia)-II, as well as their counterparts (used as the observed fields) from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics, such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model's ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.     

区域卫星导航系统GEO卫星定轨观测模型

根据GEO导航卫星的轨道特性，给出了数学上严密的卫星伪距观测和载波相位观测模型，讨论了GEO卫星轨道和卫星钟差的解算条件以及单星定轨、多星组差定轨的可行性。     

FY-2C积雪判识方法研究

介绍了利用FY-2C资料进行积雪判识的原理,在阈值法基础上的辅助因子函数积雪判识方法以及相应的FY-2C积雪判识结果精度验证分析等。一般较为常用的卫星遥感积雪判识方法为简单阈值法,由于其带有一定的随机性,很难客观反映下垫面条件差异对阈值选取的影响。以阈值法为基础,将所使用的主要变量以函数形式表达,以海拔高度、地理位置、季节、土地覆盖类型等作为阈值函数的变量,通过大量采样建立起多种阈值函数,从而实现随时空特点变化的阈值实时计算。该方法用于FY-2C积雪判识,较好地解决了FY-2C全圆盘范围内广大区域不同下垫面类型下的实时积雪监测。通过与NOAA-17人机交互积雪判识结果对比分析,该方法的积雪判识精度可达85%左右。