Predicting long-term urban growth in Beijing (China) with new factors and constraints of environmental change under integrated stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties

Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.     

From the editors

正Dear Members of the Editorial Board,Contributors and Friends,2018 is the tenth anniversary of the Wenchuan earthquake disaster.To commemorate the Wenchuan earthquake disaster,the journal of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration(EEEV)will publish special sections with invited papers in the issues of 2018(January,April and July).We sincerely appreciate the contributions from the following experts:Professor Xilin Lu,Professor Michel Bruneau,Professor Baitao Sun,and Professor Gian Paolo Cimellaro.     

辽宁地震前兆台网观测数据跟踪分析探讨

地震前兆台网跟踪分析工作的展开,推进前兆台网从观测向观测、应用并重的转变,强化观测数据质量产出,发挥其观测数据在震情监视、地震会商中的作用,使监测与预报更好的结合,有利于服务地震监测和科学研究。统计了2014年以来的前兆跟踪分析不明原因数据资料和预报研究中心地震会商数据资料,通过对比研究,试图探索跟踪分析新的数据记录方式。     

澜沧江中下游泥沙微表面电荷特性与磷吸附关系研究

河流泥沙是水生态系统生源要素的重要附着载体,其微形貌及电荷特性直接关系着泥沙对溶解态营养盐或污染物的吸附能力。本研究选取澜沧江中下游干流及主要支流为考察对象,采集28个河流水库断面的悬移质泥沙,采用原子力显微镜测定泥沙微表面电荷量,探究澜沧江泥沙的微表面电荷性质,研究纳米尺度下泥沙的微表面特性。研究结果表明:(1)微观界面,形貌对表面电荷分布影响明显,在纳米尺度下电势图与相位差图均展现出明显非均匀分布特征;(2)在流域分布上,不同区域表面电荷存在较大差异,流域沿程变化对泥沙表面电荷产生重要影响,总体变化呈现先减小后增大的趋势,表面电势值变化范围为-201.47～35.34 mV,表面电荷密度范围为0.07～3.65 mC/m²,不同区域电荷特性差别明显;(3)在梯级水电筑坝影响下,坝上坝下泥沙颗粒电势差与水库库容存在较好的线性相关关系,相关系数为0.8214,且坝下电势普遍高于坝上区域;(4)泥沙表面电势与磷吸附之间具有较强相关性,其相关系数为0.6657,同时表现出较好的线性拟合关系。研究结论对深入理解水电大坝建设对流域内污染物的迁移转化及解释泥沙的表面电性特征...     

Assessment of terrain elevation derived from satellite laser altimetry over mountainous forest areas using airborne lidar data

Gaussian decomposition has been used to extract terrain elevation from waveforms of the satellite lidar GLAS (Geoscience Laser Altimeter System), on board ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite). The common assumption is that one of the extracted Gaussian peaks, especially the lowest one, corresponds to the ground. However, Gaussian decomposition is usually complicated due to the broadened signals from both terrain and objects above over sloped areas. It is a critical and pressing research issue to quantify and understand the correspondence between Gaussian peaks and ground elevation. This study uses ～2000 km² airborne lidar data to assess the lowest two GLAS Gaussian peaks for terrain elevation estimation over mountainous forest areas in North Carolina. Airborne lidar data were used to extract not only ground elevation, but also terrain and canopy features such as slope and canopy height. Based on the analysis of a total of ～500 GLAS shots, it was found that (1) the lowest peak tends to underestimate ground elevation; terrain steepness (slope) and canopy height have the highest correlation with the underestimation, (2) the second to the lowest peak is, on average, closer to the ground elevation over mountainous forest areas, and (3) the stronger peak among the lowest two is closest to the ground for both open terrain and mountainous forest areas. It is expected that this assessment will shed light on future algorithm improvements and/or better use of the GLAS products for terrain elevation estimation.     

数字化测绘技术在公路改扩建中的应用

主要对现有公路改扩建中的数字化勘测及数字化设计进行了探讨,首先概述了湖南梅城公路改扩建项目背景,然后对数字摄影测量、GPS-RTK三维路基数据获取以及数字路基模型及与地面模型叠加等方面进行了论述,最后指出了生成1:2000三维数字地形图用于纸上定线和建立数字地面模型,能够达到公路改扩建带状图绘测精度的要求。     

浅议带有内边界的多边形裁剪算法的追踪过程

任意多边形的裁剪算法在地图制图过程中和GIS空间数据处理中具有重要意义。本文依照Weiler-Atherton算法,在不带内边界的无拓扑关系任意多边形裁剪算法基础上,论述了带内边界的无拓扑关系任意多边形裁剪算法的步骤和裁剪子区域多边形的追踪过程,为研究更为复杂的任意多边形裁剪算法提供了思路,使Weiler-Atherton算法应用更为广泛。     

利用卫星轨道资料获取降水云团尺度的新方案

提出一种新的统计方案,以目标面积比为核心度量指标,并参照连续圆形目标定义目标面积比意义上的等效半径,实现对目标宏观尺度大小的量化估计。此方法能有效减轻轨道截断效应所造成的目标尺度低估,可对通过计数类方法得到的目标空间尺度做出有效修正。     

改进型数据加窗法的高程粗差剔除研究

利用摆动式单波束探测水下微地形时,因掠射角、底质特性等因素对回波信号的影响,导致数字高程粗差产生。本文根据摆动式单波束的探测原理和工作特点,对多波束测量中的数据加窗法进行改进:将回波能量作为探测点的内在属性参与确定起始加窗点;加窗点采用实测点,并要求起始加窗点尽可能靠近整条测线上实测点的高程均值。由此提高了高程粗差剔除的准确性。在实际应用中,随机微地形的高程粗差被成功剔除。     

数字水准仪自动化监测系统在大坝变形监测中的应用

针对大坝变形监测中传统水准测量的不足之处,提出了升级改造现有设备达到自动化监测目的的想法,简述了数字水准仪自动化监测系统的工作原理以及工作流程。以改造后的数字水准仪自动化监测系统用于湖北白莲河水库垂直位移自动化监测为例,对其自动化监测过程进行了深入的研究。