Reconstruction of Subdecadal Changes in Sunspot Numbers Based on the NGRIP 10Be Record

Sunspot observations since 1610 A.D. show that the solar magnetic activity displays long-term changes, from Maunder Minimum-like low-activity states to Modern Maximum-like high-activity episodes, as well as short-term variations, such as the pronounced 11-year periodicity. Information on changes in solar activity levels before 1610 relies on proxy records of solar activity stored in natural archives, such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores and ¹⁴C in tree rings. These cosmogenic radionuclides are produced by the interaction between Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and atoms in the Earth’s atmosphere; their production rates are anti-correlated with the solar magnetic activity. The GCR intensity displays a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the GCRs in the heliosphere, which is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle. This implies a time lag between the actual solar cycles and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) records of the ¹⁰Be flux to reconstruct the solar modulation strength (Φ), which describes the modulation of GCRs throughout the heliosphere, to reconstruct both long-term and subdecadal changes in sunspot numbers (SSNs). We compare three different approaches for reconstructing subdecadal-scale changes in SSNs, including a linear approach and two approaches based on the hysteresis effect, i.e. models with ellipse–linear and ellipse relationships between Φ and SSNs. We find that the ellipse approach provides an amplitude-sensitive reconstruction and the highest cross-correlation coefficients in comparison with the ellipse–linear and linear approaches. The long-term trend in the reconstructed SSNs is computed using a physics-based model and agrees well with the other group SSN reconstructions. The new empirical approach, combining a physics-based model with ellipse-modeling of the 11-year cycle, therefore provides a method for reconstructing SSNs during individual solar cycles based on ¹⁰Be in ice cores. This, in turn, represents a new window for studying short-term changes in solar activity on unprecedented timescales, which may help improve our understanding of the solar dynamo.     

Modeling the Relationship Between Neutron Counting Rates and Sunspot Numbers Using the Hysteresis Effect

Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from ¹⁰Be in ice cores.     

IMO legislation and its implementation: Accident risk,vessel deficiencies and national administrative practices

The article takes as its point of departure the apparently contradictory findings in recent research about accident rates in shipping and IMO implementation records. It is argued here that although IMO conventions have probably greatly improved shipping safety, they cannot credibly be held to be the chief cause of reduced accident rates as claimed in a recent Marine Policy article, when the documented failures of flag state and port state implementation continue to leave vessels sailing with grave deficiencies. The present analysis posits and corroborates a cluster of linked tendencies that jointly undermine IMO implementation. The core problem is IMO’s weak connection to the national maritime administrations, leading to broadly discretionary practices, exacerbated by language difficulties. Adding new rules is no panacea, as new rules in some cases negatively affect the functioning of existing regulations, and sometimes seem motivated mainly to show political alertness. The structural weakness of the IMO/member state link is the core implementation problem that urgently needs to be dealt with if marine safety is to be improved. The concluding section proposes a reform to bring the IMO out of this conundrum and ensure effective implementation.     

Marine evidence for climatic instability during the last interglacial in shelf records from northwest Europe

Data from the Greenland ice sheet and continental records from Europe have indicated climatic fluctuations during the last interglacial (Eemian: Oxygen Isotope Substage 5e). Similar fluctuations have not, however, been documented previously from marine environments. Here, we show the existence of two cold events during substage 5e in two marine, benthic foraminiferal, shelf records from northwest Europe and suggest that these cooling events are a result of fluctuations in the strength of the North Atlantic surface-water circulation.     

Toward Improved Estimation of the Dynamic Topography and Ocean Circulation in the High Latitude and Arctic Ocean: The Importance of GOCE

The Arctic plays a fundamental role in the climate system and shows significant sensitivity to anthropogenic climate forcing and the ongoing climate change. Accelerated changes in the Arctic are already observed, including elevated air and ocean temperatures, declines of the summer sea ice extent and sea ice thickness influencing the albedo and CO₂ exchange, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and increased thawing of surrounding permafrost regions. In turn, the hydrological cycle in the high latitude and Arctic is expected to undergo changes although to date it is challenging to accurately quantify this. Moreover, changes in the temperature and salinity of surface waters in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas may also influence the flow of dense water through the Denmark Strait, which are found to be a precursor for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a lead time of around 10 years (Hawkins and Sutton in Geophys Res Lett 35:L11603, 2008). Evidently changes in the Arctic and surrounding seas have far reaching influences on regional and global environment and climate variability, thus emphasizing the need for advanced quantitative understanding of the ocean circulation and transport variability in the high latitude and Arctic Ocean. In this respect, this study combines in situ hydrographical data, surface drifter data and direct current meter measurements, with coupled sea ice–ocean models, radar altimeter data and the latest GOCE-based geoid in order to estimate and assess the quality, usefulness and validity of the new GOCE-derived mean dynamic topography for studies of the ocean circulation and transport estimates in the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean.     

Correlation of late Holocene terrestrial and marine tephra markers, north Iceland: implications for reservoir age changes

The tephrochronology of the last 3000 years has been investigated in soil sections in north Iceland and in a marine sediment core from the north Icelandic shelf, 50 km offshore. Tephra markers, identified with major element geochemical analysis of volcanic glass shards, serve to correlate the marine and terrestrial records. Hekla 3, the largest Holocene tephra marker from the volcano Hekla, in south Iceland, dated to 2980 years BP, is used as the basal unit in the tephra stratigraphy. AMS ¹⁴C dating of molluscs in the sediment core shows variable deviation from the tephrochronological age model, indicating that the reservoir age of the seawater mass at the coring site has varied with time. A standard marine reservoir correction of 400 ¹⁴C years appears to be reasonable at the present day in the coastal and shelf waters around Iceland, which are dominated by the Irminger Current. However, values over 500 years are observed during the last 3000 years. We suggest that the intervals with increased and variable marine reservoir correction reflect incursions of Arctic water masses derived from the East Greenland Current to the area north of Iceland.     

Mid-Proterozoic magmatic arc evolution at the southwest margin of the Baltic Shield

Mid-Proterozoic calc-alkaline granitoids from southern Norway, and their extrusive equivalents have been dated by LAM-ICPMS U–Pb on zircons to ages ranging from 1.61 to 1.52 Ga; there are no systematic age differences across potential Precambrian terrane boundaries in the region. U–Pb and Lu–Hf data on detrital zircons from metasedimentary gneisses belonging to the arc association show that these were mainly derived from ca. 1.6 Ga arc-related rocks. They also contain a minor but significant fraction of material derived from (at least) two distinct older (1.7–1.8 Ga) sources; one has a clear continental signature, and the other represents juvenile, depleted mantle-derived material. The former component resided in granitoids of the Transscandinavian Igneous Belt, the other in mafic rocks related to these granites or to the earliest, subduction-related magmatism in the region. Together with published data from south Norway and southwest Sweden, these findings suggest that the western margin of the Baltic Shield was the site of continuous magmatic arc evolution from at least ca 1.66 to 1.50 Ga. Most of the calc-alkaline metaigneous rocks formed in this period show major- and trace-element characteristics of rocks formed in a normal continental margin magmatic arc. The exceptions are the Stora Le-Marstrand belt in Sweden and the Kongsberg complex of Norway, which have an arc-tholeiitic chemical affinity. The new data from south Norway do not justify a suggestion that the crust on the west side of the Oslo Rift had an early to mid-Proterozoic history different from the crust to the east. Instead, they indicate that the different parts of south Norway and southwest Sweden were situated at the margin of the Baltic Shield throughout the mid-Proterozoic. Changes from arc tholeitic to calc-alkaline magmatism reflect changes with time in the subduction zone system, or lateral differences in subduction zone geometry. The NW American Cordillera may be a useful present-day analogue for the tectonomagmatic evolution of the mid-Proterozoic Baltic margin.     

Detrital zircon ages from southern Norway – implications for the Proterozoic evolution of the southwestern Baltic Shield

An ion-microprobe (SIMS) U-Pb zircon dating study on four samples of Precambrian metasediments from the high-grade Bamble Sector, southern Norway, gives the first information on the timing of discrete crust-forming events in the SW part of the Baltic Shield. Recent Nd and Pb studies have indicated that the sources of the clastic metasediments in this area have crustal histories extending back to 1.7 to 2.1 Ga, although there is no record of rocks older than 1.6 Ga in southern Norway. The analysed metasediments are from a sequence of intercalated, centimetre to 10-metre wide units of quartzites, semi-metapelites, metapelites and mafic granulites. The zircons can be grouped in two morphological populations: (1) long prismatic; (2) rounded, often flattened. The BSE images reveal that both populations consist of oscillatory zoned, rounded and corroded cores (detrital grains of magmatic origin), surrounded by homogeneous rims (metamorphic overgrowths). The detrital zircons have ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages between 1367 and 1939 Ma, with frequency maxima in the range 1.85 to 1.70 Ga and 1.60 to 1.50 Ga. There is no correlation between crystal habit and age of the zircon. One resorbed, inner zircon core in a detrital grain is strongly discordant and gives a composite inner core-magmatic outer core ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 2383 Ma. Two discrete, unzoned zircons have ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 1122 and 1133 Ma, representing zircon growth during the Sveconorwegian high-grade metamorphism. Also the μm wide overgrowths, embayments in the detrital cores and apparent “inner cores” which represent secondary metamorphic zircon growth in deep embayments in detrital grains, are of Sveconorwegian age. The composite-detrital-metamorphic zircon analyses give generally discordant ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U versus ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U ratios and maximum ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 1438 Ma. These data demonstrate the existence of a protocrust of 1.7 to 2.0 Ga in the southwestern part of the Baltic Shield, implying a break in the overall westward younging trend of the Precambrian crust, inferred from the southeastern part of the Baltic Shield. Received: 8 April 1997 / Accepted: 14 July 1997