Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Seasonal variations in river discharge and nutrient export to a Northeastern Pacific estuary

Seasonal variations in dissolved nitrogen and silica loadings were related to seasonal variability in river discharge. Dissolved nutrient concentrations measured weekly at three stations in the Yaquina River, Oregon from 1999 through 2001, and then monthly in 2002 were used as the basis for developing a nutrient loading regression as part of a larger agency program for evaluating nutrient processes. Because realistic models of nutrient transport require dense data sets to capture both long and short term fluctuations in nutrient concentrations, data at one freshwater station also were collected hourly for the same years using an in-stream monitor.The effects of storm events on dissolved nutrient transport were examined during three storms, including one in a high rainfall-discharge year, and two in average years, one of which followed a drought year. During the drought year (WY2001), total dissolved nitrate input was considerably less than in wetter years. Dissolved nitrate concentrations, however, were unusually high in the first winter storm runoff after the drought. The freshwater dissolved nitrate nitrogen loads varied from 40,380 kg day⁻¹ during a high-flow storm event to 0.11 kg day⁻¹ during late summer, low flow conditions. Dissolved silica dynamics differed from those of nitrate because during storm events, silica concentrations in the Yaquina River decreased to near zero at the storm height, probably due to dilution by near surface or overland flow, and later recovered.During the time interval studied, over 94% of the dissolved nitrate and silica were transported from the watershed during the winter months of greater rainfall, indicating that seasonality and river flow are primary factors when considering nutrient loadings from this watershed system.     

Seismic evidence for pervasive deformation of oceanic sediments in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic

Seismic reflection profiles from the equatorial Atlantic off Africa between 12°N and 1°N reveal remarkably widespread deformation of oceanic sediments in an area lacking teleseismic activity. Uplift of abyssal plain sequences has occurred along the eastern extensions of large-offset fracture zones on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Between the major transforms pervasive deformation is imaged in the sedimentary column. Diapirism and faulting may have been associated with extensive fluid migration and sediment mobilization. The deformation occurred during the late Cenozoic and was probably related to reactivation of Cretaceous transforms.     

Evaluation of long-term extreme response statistics of jack-up platforms

This paper is concerned with the models appropriate for the dynamic assessment of jack-ups, concentrating particularly on the long-term response due to random ocean waves and on work-hardening plasticity models used for spud-can response. A methodology for scaling of short-term statistics, calculated using a Constrained NewWave technique, is shown in a numerical experiment for an example jack-up and central North Sea location. The difference in long-term extreme response statistics due to various footing assumptions is emphasised. Results for two environmental load conditions are described (one excluding and one including wind and current effects) and the role of sea-state severity in the variation of short-term extreme response statistics is also highlighted.     

Characterizing Observed Environmental Variability With HF Doppler Radar Surface Current Mappers and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers: Environmental Variability in the Coastal Ocean

A network of high-frequency (HF) radars is deployed along the New Jersey coast providing synoptic current maps across the entire shelf. These data serve a variety of user groups from scientific research to Coast Guard search and rescue. In addition, model forecasts have been shown to improve with surface current assimilation. In all applications, there is a need for better definitions and assessment of the measurement uncertainty. During a summer coastal predictive skill experiment in 2001, an array of in situ current profilers was deployed near two HF radar sites, one long-range and one standard-range system. Comparison statistics were calculated between different vertical bins on the same current profiler, between different current profilers, and between the current profilers and the different HF radars. The velocity difference in the vertical and horizontal directions were then characterized using the observed root-mean-square (rms) differences. We further focused on two cases, one with relatively high vertical variability, and the second with relatively low vertical variability. Observed differences between the top bin of the current profiler and the HF radar were influenced by both system accuracy and the environment. Using the in situ current profilers, the environmental variability over scales based on the HF radar sampling was quantified. HF radar comparisons with the current profilers were on the same order as the observed environmental difference over the same scales, indicating that the environment has a significant influence on the observed differences. Velocity variability in the vertical and horizontal directions both contribute to these differences. When the potential effects of the vertical variability could be minimized, the remaining difference between the current profiler and the HF radar was similar to the measured horizontal velocity difference (~2.5 cm/s) and below the resolution of the raw radial data at the time of the deployment     

Manganese and iron distributions off central California influenced by upwelling and shelf width

In July 2002, a combination of underway mapping and discrete profiles revealed significant along-shore variability in the concentrations of manganese and iron in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, California. Both metals had lower concentrations in surface waters south of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 2.5 km wide, than north of Monterey Bay, where the shelf is about 10 km wide. During non-upwelling conditions over the northern broad shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations measured underway in surface waters reached 3.5 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese reached 25 nmol L⁻¹. In contrast, during non-upwelling conditions over the southern narrow shelf, dissolvable iron concentrations in surface waters were less than 1 nmol L⁻¹ and dissolved manganese concentrations were less than 5 nmol L⁻¹. A pair of vertical profiles at 1000 m water depth collected during an upwelling event showed dissolved manganese concentrations of 10 decreasing to 2 nmol L⁻¹, and dissolvable iron concentrations of 12–20 nmol L⁻¹ in the upper 100 m in the north, compared to 3.5–2 nmol L⁻¹ Mn and 0.6 nmol L⁻¹ Fe in the upper 100 m in the south, suggesting the effect of shelf width influences the chemistry of waters beyond the shelf.These observations are consistent with current understanding of the mechanism of iron supply to coastal upwelling systems: Iron from shelf sediments, predominantly associated with particles greater than 20 μm, is brought to the surface during upwelling conditions. We hypothesize that manganese oxides are brought to the surface with upwelling and are then reduced to dissolved manganese, perhaps by photoreduction, following a lag after upwelling.Greater phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and nutrient drawdown were observed over the broad shelf, consistent with the greater supply of iron. Incubation experiments conducted 20 km offshore in both regions, during a period of wind relaxation, confirm the potential of these sites to become limited by iron. There was no additional growth response when copper, manganese or cobalt was added in addition to iron. The growth response of surface water incubated with bottom sediment (4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolvable Fe) was slightly greater than in control incubations, but less than in the presence of 4 nmol L⁻¹ dissolved iron. This may indicate that dissolvable iron is not as bioavailable as dissolved iron, although the influence of additional inhibitory elements in the sediment cannot be ruled out.