Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Alteration processes in the CV chondrite parent body based on analysis of NWA 2086 meteorite

Analysis of the NWA 2086 CV3 chondrite showed a matrix/chondrule ratio of 52%, similar to Bali, Mokoia, and Grosanaja. Nearly twice as many chondrule fragments as intact ones demonstrate that an early fragmentation phase occurred prior to final accretion. After this event, no substantial mechanical change or redeposition is evident. Rims with double‐layered structures were identified around some chondrules, which, in at least one case, is attributed to an accretionary origin. The rim's outer parts with a diffuse appearance were formed by in situ chemical alteration. During this later process, Mg content decreased, Fe content increased, and olivine composition was homogenized, producing a rim composition close to that of the matrix. This alteration occasionally happened along fractures and at confined locations, and was probably produced by fluid interactions. Iron oxides are the best candidate for a small grain‐sized alteration product; however, technical limitations in the available equipment did not allow exact phase identification. These results suggest that NWA 2086 came from a location (possible more deeply buried) in the CV parent body than Mokoia or Bali, and suffered less impact effects—although there is no evidence of sustained thermal alteration. This meteorite may represent a sample of the CV parent asteroid interior and provide a useful basis for comparison with other CV meteorites in the future.     

CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999     

Phytoplankton diversity and chlorophyll-A in a polluted estuary

The quantity of phytoplankton in Newark Bay, New Jersey as indicated by chlorophyll-a content of the water, is low in the winter and early spring, and fluctuates greatly during the spring and summer. Chlorophyll-a concentrations are generally less than 20 μg/l until April. Between April and August, three phytoplankton blooms were indicated by chlorophyll-a concentrations as high as 81.4 μg/l. Net phytoplankton diversity values indicated generally eutrophic conditions; however, there was no significant correlation between diversity and chlorophyll-a concentrations. A role of nannoplankton in blooms is indicated.     

Anthropogenic-induced changes in twenty-first century summertime hydroclimatology of the Northeastern US

Potential changes in summertime hydroclimatology over the northeastern (NE) region of the USA induced by increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are investigated using a state-of-the-art regional climate modeling system. Results for a higher emissions scenario illustrate changes that may occur if dependence on fossil fuels continues over the coming century. Summertime precipitation is projected to decrease across much of the central NE, but increase over the southernmost and northernmost portions of the domain. Evaporation is expected to increase across the entire domain. The balance between these two results in a decrease in soil moisture content across most of the domain (by approximately 10 mm) and an increase in the summertime soil-moisture depletion rate (by approximately 10 mm/month). At the same time, an increase in both atmospheric near-surface specific and saturation specific humidity is projected, resulting in an increase in relative humidity across the southern portion of the domain, with slight decreases over the northern portion. Combined with an average increase in summer temperatures of 3.5°C, the projected increase in relative humidity results in a marked increase in the average daily maximum heat index for the region on the order of 3.9°C, as well as a 350–400% increase in the number of days with heat index values exceeding 32.2°C (90°F)—the level of “extreme caution”. Taken together, these high-resolution, dynamically-generated projections confirm the potential for significant summertime climate change impacts on the NE over the coming century as suggested by previous studies.     

Magnetic properties of the Lower Old Red Sandstone lavas in the Midland Valley,Scotland; palaeomagnetic and tectonic considerations

Thermal demagnetization studies of lavas in the Strathmore area of the Midland Valley, Scotland, support overall palaeomagnetic data found in previous studies of these rocks. Reduced directional scatter as compared to some earlier studies, is attributed to more effective demagnetization, resolving some of the directional complexity of previous studies. Combined magnetic fabric and directional analysis suggest that at least some deviating directions may be explained by local tectonism. The existence of almost antiparallel directional groups and field tests give supporting evidence for a “primary” (deuteric) origin of the main magnetization of these rocks. Additionally, a second remanence component having shallow reverse directions of magnetization, is attributed to later remagnetization in Old Red Sandstone time. The Midland Valley results are seen in conjunction with other Palaeozoic palaeomagnetic results and possible geodynamic implications are discussed.     

Carbon-Oxidizing and Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria in Mozhaisk Reservoir Soils

The population and distribution of carbon-oxidizing and sulfate-reducing bacteria in the soils of the Mozhaisk Reservoir are studied.     

The neotectonics and geodynamics of the Lower Oka Region (East European Craton)

The neotectonic structures of the Lower Oka (Nizhneokskii) Region formed under different geodynamic conditions. This is attested by the morphology, orientation, internal structure, and jointing of the structures. The Oka-Tsna arc formed under the effect of tension from an inner source on the one hand and stress from the Alpian belt on the other hand. The latitudinally-oriented structures of the northwestern slope of the Tokmovo arc emerged as a result of uplift and widening. Both types of structure are combined within the limits of the Oka-Murom trough, which is a geodynamically active zone.