Marine risk assessment: linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in the North Sea

The fate of linear alkylbenzenesulponates (LAS) in estuaries and coastal areas of the North Sea has been characterized with simple environmental models. The predicted concentration range in the estuaries around the North Sea (0.9-9 microg LAS l(-1)) was validated by monitoring data (1-9 microg LAS l(-1)). In offshore sites of the North Sea, it is estimated--and experimentally verified for a few sites--that the LAS concentration is below analytical detection limit (i.e., 0.5 microg LAS l(-1)). The effects of LAS on marine organisms have been reviewed. For short-term acute tests, there was no significant difference (p = 0.83) between the mean LC50 values of freshwater and marine organisms (mainly pelagic species tested, 4.1 and 4.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively). For longer-term chronic tests, it appeared that the sensitivity (mean no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) value) of marine and freshwater organisms (0.3 and 2.3 mg LAS l(-1), respectively) was significantly different pt-test = 0.007). The predicted no-effect-concentrations (PNEC) were 360 and 31 microg LAS l(-1), for freshwater and marine pelagic communities, respectively. Given that the maximum expected estuarine and marine concentrations are 3 to > 30 times lower than the PNEC, the risk of LAS to pelagic organisms in these environments is judged to be low.     

CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999     

Chemical signature of intermediate water masses along western Portuguese margin

Although the circulation of intermediate water masses in the eastern North Atlantic remains poorly defined, the presence of fresher intermediate waters, the Sub-Artic (SAIW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), as well the saline intermediate Mediterranean Water (MW), has been tracked using biogeochemical properties. Here we assess the hydrographic and chemical structures of intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin by examining the vertical distributions and property-property plots of chemical tracers (oxygen and nutrients). AAIW was traced by low oxygen and high nutrients, while SAIW was recognized by low nutrients. The Mediterranean Water (MW) undercurrent is shown to spread towards the eastern flank of Gorringe bank. Concurrently, the fresher waters gained salt by direct incorporation of MW, while this water was enriched in nutrients on its way northward and westward owing, to a great extent, to the entrainment of an AAIW branch. The distributions of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization are discussed in terms of regional ocean circulation. Our analysis suggests a circulation pattern of the various intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin: MW extends all over the area, but its presence is more pronounced around cape St. Vincent; SAIW apparently moves southward, reaching the Gorringe bank region, and AAIW flows northward along the coast and around the bank.     

Phytoplankton diversity and chlorophyll-A in a polluted estuary

The quantity of phytoplankton in Newark Bay, New Jersey as indicated by chlorophyll-a content of the water, is low in the winter and early spring, and fluctuates greatly during the spring and summer. Chlorophyll-a concentrations are generally less than 20 μg/l until April. Between April and August, three phytoplankton blooms were indicated by chlorophyll-a concentrations as high as 81.4 μg/l. Net phytoplankton diversity values indicated generally eutrophic conditions; however, there was no significant correlation between diversity and chlorophyll-a concentrations. A role of nannoplankton in blooms is indicated.     

Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Anthropogenic-induced changes in twenty-first century summertime hydroclimatology of the Northeastern US

Potential changes in summertime hydroclimatology over the northeastern (NE) region of the USA induced by increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are investigated using a state-of-the-art regional climate modeling system. Results for a higher emissions scenario illustrate changes that may occur if dependence on fossil fuels continues over the coming century. Summertime precipitation is projected to decrease across much of the central NE, but increase over the southernmost and northernmost portions of the domain. Evaporation is expected to increase across the entire domain. The balance between these two results in a decrease in soil moisture content across most of the domain (by approximately 10 mm) and an increase in the summertime soil-moisture depletion rate (by approximately 10 mm/month). At the same time, an increase in both atmospheric near-surface specific and saturation specific humidity is projected, resulting in an increase in relative humidity across the southern portion of the domain, with slight decreases over the northern portion. Combined with an average increase in summer temperatures of 3.5°C, the projected increase in relative humidity results in a marked increase in the average daily maximum heat index for the region on the order of 3.9°C, as well as a 350–400% increase in the number of days with heat index values exceeding 32.2°C (90°F)—the level of “extreme caution”. Taken together, these high-resolution, dynamically-generated projections confirm the potential for significant summertime climate change impacts on the NE over the coming century as suggested by previous studies.     

Magnetic properties of the Lower Old Red Sandstone lavas in the Midland Valley,Scotland; palaeomagnetic and tectonic considerations

Thermal demagnetization studies of lavas in the Strathmore area of the Midland Valley, Scotland, support overall palaeomagnetic data found in previous studies of these rocks. Reduced directional scatter as compared to some earlier studies, is attributed to more effective demagnetization, resolving some of the directional complexity of previous studies. Combined magnetic fabric and directional analysis suggest that at least some deviating directions may be explained by local tectonism. The existence of almost antiparallel directional groups and field tests give supporting evidence for a “primary” (deuteric) origin of the main magnetization of these rocks. Additionally, a second remanence component having shallow reverse directions of magnetization, is attributed to later remagnetization in Old Red Sandstone time. The Midland Valley results are seen in conjunction with other Palaeozoic palaeomagnetic results and possible geodynamic implications are discussed.     

Carbon-Oxidizing and Sulfate-Reducing Bacteria in Mozhaisk Reservoir Soils

The population and distribution of carbon-oxidizing and sulfate-reducing bacteria in the soils of the Mozhaisk Reservoir are studied.     

A Search for a Globular Cluster whose Passage Through the Galactic Disk Could Induce the Formation of the Gould Belt

The distribution of sites where globular clusters have crossed the Galactic disk during the last 100 million years has been analyzed using the most recent kinematic data for 133 globular clusters (GCs). ThreeGCs (NGC 6341, NGC 7078, and ω Cen) whose distances between the positions where they crossed the Galactic disk and trajectories of the Gould Belt are less than 20% of their heliocentric distances at the crossing time (82, 98, and 96 million years ago, respectively) have been identified. For each of the clusters, this was their next to last, rather than their last, crossing of the Galactic disk. The passage of any one of these three GCs through the disk could potentially have initiated the formation of the Gould Belt.