Estimation of an upper limit on prehistoric peak ground acceleration using the parameters of intact speleothems in Hungarian caves

The examination of speleothems in the Hajnóczy and Baradla caves (northeastern Hungary) allows estimating an upper limit for horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by paleoearthquakes. The density, the Young’s modulus and the tensile failure stress of the samples originating from a broken speleothem have been measured in a laboratory, whereas the natural frequency of intact speleothems was determined by in situ observations. The value of horizontal ground acceleration resulting in failure, the natural frequency and the inner friction coefficient of speleothems were assessed by theoretical calculations. The ages of the samples taken from a stalagmite 5.1 m in height (Baradla cave) have been determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analysis and alpha spectrometry. The measured ages fall between 140,000 and 70,000 years; therefore, we assume the speleothem has not been changed since the end of this time interval. According to our modeling results, this speleothem has not been excited by a horizontal acceleration higher than 0.05 g during the last 70,000 years.     

Cathodoluminescence microscopy and spectroscopy of forsterite from Kaba meteorite: An application to the study of hydrothermal alteration of parent body

Highly forsteritic olivine (Fo: 99.2–99.7) in the Kaba meteorite emits bright cathodoluminescence (CL). CL spectra of red luminescent forsterite grains have two broad emission bands at approximately 630 nm (impurity center of divalent Mn ions) in the red region and above 700 nm (trivalent Cr ions) in the red–IR region. The cores of the grains show CL blue luminescence giving a characteristic broad band emission at 400 nm, also associated with minor red emissions related to Mn and Cr ions. CL color variation of Kaba forsterite is attributed to structural defects. Electron probe microanalyzer (EPMA) analysis shows concentrations of Ca, Al, and Ti in the center of the forsterite grain. The migration of diffusible ions of Mn, Cr, and Fe to the rim of the Kaba meteoritic forsterite was controlled by the hydrothermal alteration at relatively low temperature (estimated at about 250 °C), while Ca and Al ions might still lie in the core. A very unusual phase of FeO (wüstite) was also observed, which may be a terrestrial alteration product of FeNi‐metal.     

Observations of Li isotopic variations in the Trinity Ophiolite: Evidence for isotopic fractionation by diffusion during mantle melting

The Trinity peridotite (northern CA) contains numerous lithologic sequences consisting of dunite to harzburgite to spinel lherzolite to plagioclase lherzolite. Previous workers have documented geochemical gradients in these sequences consistent with melt-rock reaction processes occurring around dunites, interpreted to reflect conduits for melt ascent. We have undertaken a study of Li isotope compositions of clinopyroxene and some olivine within these sequences using ion probe techniques to test the hypothesis that the geochemical gradients are related to diffusive fluxing of alkali elements into or away from the melt conduit.Results show large variations in ⁷Li/⁶Li occurring in a consistent pattern across three transects from dunite to plagioclase lherzolite within the Trinity peridotite. Specifically, measurements of average δ⁷Li for single thin sections along the traverse reveal a low in δ⁷Li in the harzburgite adjacent to the dunite returning to higher values farther from the dunite with a typical offset of ∼10 per mil in the low δ⁷Li trough. This pattern is consistent with a process whereby Li isotopes are fractionated during diffusion through a melt either from the dunite conduit to the surrounding peridotite, or from the surrounding peridotite into the dunite conduit. The patterns in ⁷Li/⁶Li occur over a length scale similar to the decrease in REE concentration in these same samples. Explaining both the trace element and Li isotopic gradients requires a combined process of alkali diffusion and melt extraction.We develop a numerical model and examine several scenarios of the combined diffusion-extraction process. Using experimentally constrained values for the change in Li diffusion coefficient with isotope mass, large changes in δ⁷Li as a function of distance can be created in year to decade timescales. The addition of the melt extraction term allows larger Li concentration gradients to be developed and thus produces larger isotopic fractionations than diffusion only models. The extraction aspect of the model can also account for the observed decrease in rare earth element concentrations across the transects.     

South East Europe electricity roadmap – modelling energy transition in the electricity sectors

One of the most important challenges for the South East Europe region will be replacing more than 30% of its presently installed fossil fuel generation capacity by the end of 2030, and more than 95% by 2050 if its age structure is considered. This requires a strong policy framework to incentivise new investments in a region currently lacking investors, but also presents an opportunity to shape the electricity sector over the long term according to the broader energy transition strategy of the EU and the Energy Community. The aim of this paper is to assess what type of long-term pathways exist for electricity sector development in the region if they follow the energy transition process of the EU. In this model-based scenario assessment, long term electricity sector futures are explored using a set of interlinked electricity models evaluating the level of renewable energy investment required in the region to reach a deep decarbonization target, assuming emission reduction above 94% by 2050 compared to 1990 in line with the long term market integration and climate policy goals of the EU. It also explores what are the most important system wide impacts of the high deployment of renewable energy concerning generation adequacy and security of supply.

Key policy insights

• Energy policies in the South East Europe (SEE) region, both at the national and regional level, should focus on enabling renewable energy integration, as this will be a key component of the future energy mix.

• EU and Energy Community policies should be incorporated into national energy planning to ensure that SEE countries embark on the energy transition process at an early stage.

• Stranded costs should be carefully considered in decision-making on new fossil-fuel generation and gas network investment in order to avoid lock-in to carbon intensive technologies.

• If consistent decarbonization policy prevails, with a significant and persistent CO2 price signal, the role of natural gas remains transitory in the region.

• The SEE region offers relatively cheap decarbonization options: the power sector can reduce GHG emissions above 94% by 2050 in the modelled scenarios.

     

Near-solidus melts of MORB + 4 wt% H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O at 0.8–2.8 GPa applied to issues of subduction magmatism and continent formation

Experiments on MORB?+?4 wt% H₂O at 0.8–2.8 GPa and 700–950 °C (Liu in High pressure phase equilibria involving the amphibolite–eclogite transformation. PhD dissertation, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 1997; Liu et al. in Earth Planet Sci Lett 143:161–171, 1996) were reexamined for their major and trace element melt compositions and melting relations. Degree of melting diminishes at greater pressures, with corresponding evolution of melt from andesitic at the lowest pressures and hottest temperatures to high-silica rhyolitic at the greatest pressure and coolest temperature. Quartz contributes greatly to the production of near-solidus melts of basaltic eclogite, with the result that melt productivity falls markedly following quartz exhaustion. This limits the extent of melting attainable in the basaltic eclogite portions of sub-arc subducting plates to no more than ~?2?×?the modal wt% quartz in the mafic eclogite protolith. Synthesized residual mineral assemblages lack an epidote-series mineral at temperatures?>?750 °C, and as a result, melts from the rutile eclogite and rutile-amphibole eclogite facies have elevated concentrations of light rare earth elements, U, Th, have elevated Ba, K, and Sr, high Sr/Y, and are strongly depleted in Nb, Y, and the heavy rare earth elements. Models of eclogite partial melt reacting with peridotite of the mantle wedge reproduce major and trace element characteristics of parental arc magmas so long as the proportions of infiltrating melt to peridotite are relatively high, consistent with channelized ascent. Melt mass is estimated to increase roughly three- to ten-fold, consistent with H₂O concentrations of 3–7 wt% in the magmas produced by reaction. Partial melts of subducting basaltic eclogite are predicted to have positive Sr concentration anomalies, relative to Ce and Nd, that persist through melt-peridotite reactions. Primitive arc magmas commonly have positive Sr anomalies, whereas such anomalies are smaller in estimates of the bulk continental crust. Overall, Sr anomalies diminish passing from primitive to more evolved arc volcanic rocks, consistent with extensive mineral-melt differentiation (crystallization, partial remelting) involving plagioclase. On the order of 50 wt% differentiation would be necessary to eliminate Sr positive anomalies, based on geochemical variations in the Cascade and western Aleutian magmatic arcs. Loss to the mantle of cumulates and restites with high Sr anomalies, in abundances broadly equal to the mass of the preserved crust, would be required to form the continents via processes similar to present-day subduction magmatism.     

Distribution of relict permafrost features in the Pannonian Basin,Hungary

Wedge structures and involutions suggest that Late Pleistocene frozen ground, either permafrost or deep seasonal frost, extended at least as far south as latitude 47°N in central Europe (the Pannonian Basin). Optically stimulated luminescence dating of the sand infill from a number of wedges indicates that emplacement of the sand infill occurred during the Late Pleistocene (22.2–15.7 ka). This suggests that during this time the mean annual air temperature was depressed by at least ～15°C relative to the present. Either continuous or discontinuous permafrost was probably present in the north and NW of the Pannonian Basin. The subsequent thaw of frozen ground is indicated by the widespread occurrence of deformed sediments. The presence of soil (ground) wedges suggests conditions of deep seasonal frost probably existed during the period when climate ameliorated following the Last Permafrost Maximum (LPM).     

Surface changes on a landslide affected high bluff in Dunaszekcső (Hungary)

This article presents results from the survey conducted on Dunaszekcs? loess bluff after the last major rotational sliding event in 2008. The study area is a region of 25×30 m located on loess bluff close to the recent scarp. The relative elevation change of the surface was surveyed in 2.5×5 m grid network in relation to a marked base point. The survey was conducted using simple equipment such as analogue theodolite and leveller with regular time interval during a year and control measurements were taken after six months. It was assumed that measurements to the nearest cm are sufficient to recognize vertical displacements of the surface. The study focused on identifying the pattern of general vertical movements for the study area by the relative movements of individual points. Our results show significant cm scale vertical displacements. Most of the grid points have a slow decreasing tendency, but close to the scarp a more significant displacement was found. The main character of the spatial pattern is subsidence, which is more definitive on southern part of the study area than the northern part. Our observations correlate with the broader geomorphological characteristics of loess bluffs along the Danube.     

Amphibole perspective to unravel pre-eruptive processes and conditions in volcanic plumbing systems beneath intermediate arc volcanoes: a case study from Ciomadul volcano (SE Carpathians)

Ciomadul is the youngest volcano in the Carpathian–Pannonian region produced crystal-rich high-K dacites that contain abundant amphibole phenocrysts. The amphiboles in the studied dacites are characterized by large variety of zoning patterns, textures, and a wide range of compositions (e.g., 6.4–15 wt% Al₂O₃, 79–821 ppm Sr) often in thin-section scale and even in single crystals. Two amphibole populations were observed in the dacite: low-Al hornblendes represent a cold (<800 °C) silicic crystal mush, whereas the high-Al pargasites crystallized in a hot (>900 °C) mafic magma. Amphibole thermobarometry suggests that the silicic crystal mush was stored in an upper crustal storage (~8–12 km). This was also the place where the erupted dacitic magma was formed during the remobilization of upper crustal silicic crystal mush body by hot mafic magma indicated by simple-zoned and composite amphiboles. This includes reheating (by ~200 °C) and partial remelting of different parts of the crystal mush followed by intensive crystallization of the second mineral population (including pargasites). Breakdown textures of amphiboles imply that they were formed by reheating in case of hornblendes, suggesting that pre-eruptive heating and mixing could take place within days or weeks before the eruption. The decompression rim of pargasites suggests around 12 days of magma ascent in the conduit. Several arc volcanoes produce mixed intermediate magmas with similar bimodal amphibole cargo as the Ciomadul, but in our dacite the two amphibole population can be found even in a single crystal (composite amphiboles). Our study indicates that high-Al pargasites form as a second generation in these magmas after the mafic replenishment into a silicic capture zone; thus, they cannot unambiguously indicate a deeper mafic storage zone beneath these volcanoes. The simple-zoned and composite amphiboles provide direct evidence that significant compositional variations of amphiboles do not necessarily mean variation in the pressure of crystallization even if the Al-tschermak substitution can be recognized, suggesting that amphibole barometers that consider only amphibole composition may often yield unrealistic pressure variation.     

Hydrothermal origin of hexagonal CaAl2Si2O8 (dmisteinbergite) in a compact type A CAI from the Northwest Africa 2086 CV3 chondrite

We report an occurrence of hexagonal CaAl₂Si₂O₈ (dmisteinbergite) in a compact type A calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusion (CAI) from the CV3 (Vigarano‐like) carbonaceous chondrite Northwest Africa 2086. Dmisteinbergite occurs as approximately 10 μm long and few micrometer‐thick lath‐shaped crystal aggregates in altered parts of the CAI, and is associated with secondary nepheline, sodalite, Ti‐poor Al‐diopside, grossular, and Fe‐rich spinel. Spinel is the only primary CAI mineral that retained its original O‐isotope composition (Δ¹⁷O ~ ?24‰); Δ¹⁷O values of melilite, perovskite, and Al,Ti‐diopside range from ?3 to ?11‰, suggesting postcrystallization isotope exchange. Dmisteinbergite, anorthite, Ti‐poor Al‐diopside, and ferroan olivine have ¹⁶O‐poor compositions (Δ¹⁷O ~ ?3‰). We infer that dmisteinbergite, together with the other secondary minerals, formed by replacement of melilite as a result of fluid‐assisted thermal metamorphism experienced by the CV chondrite parent asteroid. Based on the textural appearance of dmisteinbergite in NWA 2086 and petrographic observations of altered CAIs from the Allende meteorite, we suggest that dmisteinbergite is a common secondary mineral in CAIs from the oxidized Allende‐like CV3 chondrites that has been previously misidentified as a secondary anorthite.