Predictability of the Meteorological Conditions Favourable to Radiative Fog Formation During the 2011 ParisFog Campaign

Radiative fog formation is a complex phenomenon involving local physical and microphysical processes that take place when particular meteorological conditions occur. This study aims at quantifying the ability of a regional numerical weather model to analyze and forecast the conditions favourable to radiative fog formation at an instrumental site in the Paris area. Data from the ParisFog campaign have been used in order to quantify the meteorological conditions favorable to radiative fog formation (pre-fog conditions) by setting threshold values on the key meteorological variables driving this process: 2-m temperature tendency, 10-m wind speed, 2-m relative humidity and net infrared flux. Data from the ParisFog observation periods of November 2011 indicate that use of these thresholds leads to the detection of 87 % of cases in which radiative fog formation was observed. In order to evaluate the ability of a regional weather model to reproduce adequately these conditions, the same thresholds are applied to meteorological model fields in both analysis and forecast mode. It is shown that, with this simple methodology, the model detects 74 % of the meteorological conditions finally leading to observed radiative fog, and 48 % 2 days in advance. Finally, sensitivity tests are conducted in order to evaluate the impact of using larger time or space windows on the forecasting skills.     

Exploring the spatiotemporal variability of the snow water equivalent in a small boreal forest catchment through observation and modelling

In snow-fed catchments, it is crucial to monitor and model the snow water equivalent (SWE), particularly when simulating the melt water runoff. SWE distribution can, however, be highly heterogeneous, particularly in forested environments. Within these locations, scant studies have explored the spatiotemporal variability in SWE in relation with vegetation characteristics, with only few successful attempts. The aim of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap, through a detailed monitoring at nine locations within a 3.49 km² forested catchment in southern Québec, Canada (47°N, 71°W). The catchment receives an annual average of 633 mm of solid precipitation and is predominantly covered with balsam fir stands. Extracted from intensive field campaign and high-resolution LiDAR data, this study explores the effect of fine scale forest features (tree height, tree diameter, canopy density, leaf area index [LAI], tree density and gap fraction) on the spatiotemporal variability in the SWE distribution. A nested stratified random sampling design was adopted to quantify small-scale variability across the catchment and 1810 manual snow samples were collected throughout the consecutive winters of 2016–17 and 2017–18. This study explored the variability of SWE using coefficients of variation (CV) and relating to the LAI. We also present existing spatiotemporal differences in maximum snow depth across different stands and its relationship with average tree diameter. Furthermore, exploiting key vegetation characteristics, this paper explores different approaches to model SWE, such as multiple linear regression, binary regression tree and neural networks (NN). We were unable to establish any relationship between the CV of SWE and the LAI. However, we observed an increase in maximum snow depth with decreasing tree diameter, suggesting an association between these variables. NN modelling (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.71) revealed that, snow depth, snowpack age and forest characteristics (tree diameter and tree density) are key controlling variables on SWE. Using only variables that are deemed to be more readily available (snow depth, tree height, snowpack age and elevation), NN performance falls by only 7% (NSE = 0.66).     

The Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS critical zone observatory M-TROPICS dataset II: Land use,hydrology and sediment production monitoring in Houay Pano,northern Lao PDR

Mountain regions of the humid tropics are characterized by steep slopes and heavy rains. These regions are thus prone to both high surface runoff and soil erosion. In Southeast Asia, uplands are also subject to rapid land-use change, predominantly as a result of increased population pressure and market forces. Since 1998, the Houay Pano site, located in northern Lao PDR (19.85°N 102.17°E) within the Mekong basin, aims at assessing the long-term impact of the conversion of traditional slash-and-burn cultivation systems to commercial perennial monocultures such as teak tree plantations, on the catchment hydrological response and sediment yield. The instrumented site monitors hydro-meteorological and soil loss parameters at both microplot (1 m²) and small catchment (0.6 km²) scales. The monitored catchment is part of the network of critical zone observatories named Multiscale TROPIcal CatchmentS (M-TROPICS). The data shared by M-TROPICS in Houay Pano are (1) rainfall, (2) air temperature, air relative humidity, wind speed, and global radiation, (3) catchment land use, (4) stream water level, suspended particulate matter, bed particulate matter and stones, (5) soil surface features, and (6) soil surface runoff and soil detachment. The dataset has already been used to interpret suspended particulate matter and bed particulate matter sources and dynamics, to assess the impact of land-use change on catchment hydrology, soil erosion, and sediment yields, to understand bacteria fate and weed seed transport across the catchment, and to build catchment-scale models focused on hydrology and water quality issues. The dataset may be further used to, for example, assess the role of headwater catchments in large tropical river basin hydrology, support the interpretation of new variables measured in the catchment (e.g., contaminants other than faecal bacteria), and assess the relative impacts of both climate and land-use change on the catchment.     

Zero-difference GPS ambiguity resolution at CNES–CLS IGS Analysis Center

CNES (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales) and CLS (Collecte Localisation Satellites) became an International GNSS Service (IGS) Analysis Center (AC) the 20th of May 2010. Since 2009, we are using the integer ambiguity fixing at the zero-difference level strategy in our software package (GINS/Dynamo) as an alternative to classical differential approaches. This method played a key role among all the improvements in the GPS processing we made during this period. This paper provides to the users the theoretical background, the strategies and the models used to compute the products (GPS orbits and clocks, weekly station coordinate estimates and Earth orientation parameters) that are submitted weekly to the IGS. The practical realization of the two-step, ambiguity-fixing scheme (wide-lane and narrow-lane) is described in detail. The ambiguity fixing improved our orbit overlaps from 6 to 3?cm WRMS in the tangential and normal directions. Since 2008, our products have been also regularly compared to the IGS final solutions by the IGS Analysis Center Coordinator. The joint effects of ambiguity fixing and dynamical model changes (satellite solar radiation pressure and albedo force) improved the consistency with IGS orbits from 35 to 18?mm 3D-WRMS. Our innovative strategy also gives additional powerful properties to the GPS satellite phase clock solutions. Single receiver (zero-difference) ambiguity resolution becomes possible. An overview of the applications is given.     

Zn isotopes in the suspended load of the Seine River, France: Isotopic variations and source determination

We report Zn isotopic ratios (δ⁶⁶Zn) of river suspended particulate matter (SPM) and floodplain deposits (FD) from the Seine basin, France, with a precision ?0.05‰. A decrease in δ⁶⁶Zn from 0.30‰ to 0.08‰ is observed in SPM from the upstream to downstream parts of the fluvial system, associated with an increase in Zn concentration from 100 ppm to 400 ppm. The Zn/Al of SPM at the river mouth is up to five times greater than the Zn/Al of the natural background, and by normalizing to the later value we define a Zn enrichment factor. Suspended sediments from a temporal series of samples collected in Paris display a similar variation in δ⁶⁶Zn of between 0.08‰ and 0.26‰, while showing an inverse relationship between the Zn enrichment factor and δ⁶⁶Zn. The amount of Zn transported as suspended load varies from 10% to 90%, as a function of increasing discharge. The δ⁶⁶Zn of SPM and the dissolved load are correlated, suggesting that adsorption processes are probably not the dominant process by which the Zn enrichment of SPM takes place. Instead, we interpret our data as reflecting the mixture of two main populations of suspended particles with distinct δ⁶⁶Zn. The first is characteristic of natural silicate particles transported by erosion processes to the river, while the second likely represents anthropogenic particles derived from wastewater treatment plants or combined sewer overflows. Based on isotopic ratios, we calculate that 70% of Zn in SPM of the Seine River in Paris is of anthropogenic origin.     

Economics of climate policy and collective decision making

This paper explores the reasons why economic instruments of climate change are reluctantly applied and stresses the need for interdisciplinary research linking economic theory and empirical testing to deliberative political procedures. It is divided in three parts. The first one recalls the main issues in implementing Cost-Benefit Analysis such as information problems, uncertainties, discounting the future and irreversibilities. The second part shows how these issues can be treated in integrated assessment and techno-economic models and presents a case study, which shows that

• The chosen scenario tends to stabilize atmospheric CO₂ concentration at around 550 ppm in the long run.
• Exclusion of possibility to trade CO₂ emission permits under a cap regime would increase the cost of emission abatement for OECD countries.
• Combining different flexibility instruments might lead to significant gains in the overall cost of climate policy.

The third part presents results of a survey conducted among the main economic and environmental associations in Switzerland. The survey reveals conflicting views on economic instruments. It shows how the social acceptability of these instruments can be improved in taking explicitly into account these opposing views of special interest groups. Therefore, policy scenarios should be selected in combining techno-economic models with empirical studies about their political and normative context.     

A combined modelling and geochemical study of the fate of terrigenous inputs from mixed natural and mining sources in a coral reef lagoon (New Caledonia)

Open-cast mining for Ni, Cr and Co was conducted in the south-west part of New Caledonia during the 20th century. Abandoned mining and prospecting sites were severely affected by erosion, resulting in an increase in the load of terrigenous particles transported to the coral reef lagoon. This article assesses the impact of a typical small catchment area (La Coulée River, 85 km2 watershed) on two bays (Boulari and Sainte Marie) located near Noumea, New Caledonia's main city. This multi-disciplinary study combines geochemical, sedimentological, and hydrodynamic approaches. Ni and Cr concentrations contained in the geochemical matrix phase of the pelitic fraction were determined. The study of the geochemical signatures together with sedimentological data and 3D numerical simulations of the transport of non-settling particles throughout the lagoon demonstrated that terrigenous inputs from the Coulée River were mainly transported and deposited along the shoreline, reaching areas as distant as Sainte Marie Bay. Although quantitatively low (about 3% of the pelite mass of the bay sediments), the terrigenous inputs in Sainte Marie Bay originating from the Coulée River could be traced. The metal content in suspended matter was over 7000 mg kg(-1) for Ni and 4200 mg kg(-1) for Cr.     

Provenance record of late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene Andean Mountain building in the Amazonian retroarc foreland basin (Madre de Dios basin,Peru)

Biostratigraphic, sedimentological and provenance analyses suggest that a proto‐Andean Cordillera already existed in southern Peru by late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene times. A 270‐m‐thick stratigraphic section shows changes in depositional environments from shallow marine (early Maastrichtian) to non‐marine (late Maastrichtian) then back to estuarine (late Palaeocene) conditions. An erosional surface separates lower Maastrichtian from upper Maastrichtian deposits. Above this surface, the late Maastrichtian unit exhibits moderately developed palaeosols and syn‐sedimentary normal faults. The sedimentary evolution is accompanied by a decrease in sedimentation rate and by changes in provenance. Shallow marine lower Maastrichtian deposits have a cratonic provenance as shown by their low εNd(0) values (?15 to ?16) and the presence of Precambrian inherited zircon grains. The upper Maastrichtian deposits have a mixed Andean and cratonic origin with εNd(0) values of ~12.6 and yield the first Cretaceous and Permo‐Triassic zircon grains. Estuarine to shallow marine upper Palaeocene deposits have an Andean dominant source as attested by higher εNd(0) values (?6 to ?10) and by the presence of Palaeozoic and Late Cretaceous zircon grains. The changes in depositional environments and sedimentation rates, as well as the shift in detrital provenance, are consistent with a late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene period of Andean mountain building. In agreement with recently published studies, our data suggest that an Andean retroarc foreland basin was active by late Maastrichtian–late Palaeocene times.     

Nickeliferous pyrite tracks pervasive hydrothermal alteration in Martian regolith breccia: A study in NWA 7533

Martian regolith breccia NWA 7533 (and the seven paired samples) is unique among Martian meteorites in showing accessory pyrite (up to 1% by weight). Pyrite is a late mineral, crystallized after the final assembly of the breccia. It is present in all of the lithologies, i.e., the fine‐grained matrix (ICM), clast‐laden impact melt rocks (CLIMR), melt spherules, microbasalts, lithic clasts, and mineral clasts, all lacking magmatic sulfides due to degassing. Pyrite crystals show combinations of cubes, truncated cubes, and octahedra. Polycrystalline clusters can reach 200 μm in maximum dimensions. Regardless of their shape, pyrite crystals display evidence of very weak shock metamorphism such as planar features, fracture networks, and disruption into subgrains. The late fracture systems acted as preferential pathways for partial replacement of pyrite by iron oxyhydroxides interpreted as resulting from hot desert terrestrial alteration. The distribution and shape of pyrite crystals argue for growth at moderate to low growth rate from just‐saturated near neutral (6 < pH<10), H₂S‐HS‐rich fluids at minimum log fO₂ of >FMQ + 2 log units. It is inferred from the maximum Ni contents (4.5 wt%) that pyrite started crystallizing at 400–500 °C, during or shortly after a short‐duration, relatively low temperature, thermal event that lithified and sintered the regolith breccias, 1.4 Ga ago as deduced from disturbance in several isotope systematics.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on reproductive fitness of an endangered montane lizard, Eulamprus leuraensis (Scincidae)

A shift in climatic conditions may directly modify critical organismal traits (such as reproductive output and offspring phenotypes), and experimental studies to document such direct effects thus may clarify the impacts of climate change on the species involved. The endangered Blue Mountains Water Skink (Eulamprus leuraensis) exhibits several traits predicted to imperil it under climate change: ectothermy, low reproductive output, specialisation to a restricted habitat type, montane endemicity, and a small geographic range. Congeneric species exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, increasing potential sensitivity to climate change. We maintained wild-caught female lizards throughout pregnancy under thermal conditions simulating a shift in basking-time availability (3 vs 7 h/day) as might occur under climate change. Females with longer basking opportunities per day gave birth 2 weeks earlier, to slightly smaller offspring, that grew much faster in the first few weeks of life. Importantly, offspring sex ratios were not affected by maternal thermal regimes. Hence, some traits (e.g., offspring size, growth rates, dates of birth) are sensitive to ambient thermal conditions whereas other traits (e.g., offspring sex ratio and sprint speed) are not. On balance, the greatest threat to population persistence for E. leuraensis under climate change is likely to involve indirect effects mediated via habitat degradation (especially, drying-out of the hanging swamps) rather than direct thermal effects on lizard reproductive output or offspring phenotypes.