Weather yield model for the semi tropical region (Pakistan)

Weather models are essential tools for checking of the effect of the weather elements in terms of their effect on the production of the crop. This research is an attempt to see the effect of only two variables i.e., temperature and rainfall for the division Faisalabad (semitropical region of Pakistan).The model fitted is of the linear form:the values of a,b, c have been found. The expected yield has been calculated by using the aridity indices (X1 and X2 ) and the result in the form of coefficient of determination R2 has been found equal to 0.166. The significance of the regression coefficient has been tested, which shows that the contribution to the yield from aridity index at germination and that at ripening is significant.The wheat yields are the results of a wide variety of variables, most of which show varying degree of relationship with one another, some positive and some negative in terms of output. These variables may be technology, fertilizers, pesticides, epidemics, kinds of seeds used, market price of crop and the area under cultivation etc, which can be the source of variation in the wheat yield. Since rainfall during germination and temperature at the ripening periods are the necessary factors for the yield of wheat, for this purpose these parameters have been studied in order to their contribution.     

Analysis of Rigid Short Caisson with Granular Core Incorporating Nonlinear Interface and Base Responses

It is difficult to construct a conventional shallow foundation in alluvial lowlands because of soft soils and high ground water table. A rigid short caisson foundation with granular core is being proposed for alluvial lowlands. The proposed foundation is analyzed using non-linear hyperbolic stress–displacement responses of homogeneous alluvial deposits. Extensive parametric studies are carried out to study the effects of length ratio (L/d₀), diameter ratio (d/d₀) of granular core with respect to casing, relative stiffness of shaft (α_τ), relative casing base stiffness (α_b), and friction angle of granular material (ϕ_gp) on the load sharing and the settlement of the proposed foundation.     

SCOUR MITIGATION AT BRIDGE PIERS USING SACRIFICIAL PILES

To mitigate scour around bridge piers, sacrificial piles are economic method where natural processes are involved. The arrangement should be such that scoured materials from the sacrificial piles should have enough volume to fill the scour hole created upstream of the pier in such a way that sediments are trapped inside the scour hole. This concept differs from earlier study made with sacrificial piles that mainly deals to reduce the strength of horseshoe vortex. To determine the effect of sacrificial piles for scour mitigation, alternative arrangements of piles were tested in front of a rectangular pier under clear-water condition and found that when the group of piles is placed at a distance of twice the projected width of the pier, for which percentage of blockage of the pier width is 60%, the scour volume can be reduced upto 61% while the maximum scour depth can be reduced upto 50%.     

Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River

Abstract

One of the world's largest irrigation networks, based on the Indus River system in Pakistan, faces serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. The system is dominated both by monsoon and by snow and glacier dynamics, which confer strong seasonal and inter-annual variability. In this paper two different forecasting methods are utilized to analyse the long-term seasonal behaviour of the Indus River. The study also assesses whether the strong seasonal behaviour is dominated by the presence of low-dimensional nonlinear dynamics, or whether the periodic behaviour is simply immersed in random fluctuations. Forecasts obtained by nonlinear prediction (NLP) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methods show that the performance of NLP is relatively better than the SARIMA method. This, along with the low values of the correlation dimension, is indicative of low-dimensional nonlinear behaviour of the hydrological dynamics. A relatively better performance of NLP, using an inverse technique, may also be indicative of the low-dimensional behaviour. Moreover, the embedding dimension of the best NLP forecasts is in good agreement with the estimated correlation dimension. This provides evidence that the nonlinearity inherent in the monthly river flow due to the snowmelt and the monsoon variations dominate over the high-dimensional components and might be exploited for prediction and modelling of the complex hydrological system.

Citation Hassan, S. A. & Ansari, M. R. K. (2010) Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 250–265.     

Engineering properties of sabkha soils in the benghazi plain and construction problems

This paper describes the geological, geotechnical and chemical properties of some Sabkha (lagoonal) soils in the Benghazi plain. Several buildings constructed on such soils show tilting and cracks. The cause of this trouble has been traced to the special characteristics of Sabkha soils. It is suggested that improved mix design and dense concrete should be used so as to make concrete in the foundation impermeable.     

The Effects of Solar Eclipse of August 1, 2008 on Earth’s Atmospheric Parameters

Several experiments were undertaken at Kolkata (latitude: 22°34′N, longitude: 88°30′E) on the solar eclipse day of August 1, 2008 to observe the effects of the solar eclipse on Fair Weather Field (FWF) and VLF amplitude and phase. The experimental results presented here show significant deviations of the observed parameters from their normal values, as they are determined by the average of the records obtained on 5 days adjacent to the day of the solar eclipse.     

Groundwater Governance in a Water‐Starved Country: Public Policy,Farmers' Perceptions,and Drivers of Tubewell Adoption in Balochistan,Pakistan

Pakistan faces the challenge of developing sustainable groundwater policies with the main focus on groundwater management rather than groundwater development and with appropriate governance arrangement to ensure benefits continue into the future. This article investigates groundwater policy, farmers' perceptions, and drivers of tubewell (groundwater bore) adoption and proposes possible pathways for improved groundwater management for Balochistan, Pakistan. Historical groundwater policies were mainly aimed at increasing agricultural production and reducing poverty, without consideration of adverse impact on groundwater availability. These groundwater policies and governance arrangements have resulted in a massive decline in groundwater tables. Tubewell owners' rankings of the drivers of groundwater decline suggest that rapid and widespread installation of tubewells, together with uncontrolled extraction due to lack of property rights, electricity subsidy policies, and ineffective governance, are key causes of groundwater decline in Balochistan. An empirical “tubewell adoption” model confirmed that the electricity subsidy significantly influenced tubewell adoption decisions. The article proposes a more rational electricity subsidy policy for sustaining groundwater levels in the short‐run. However, in the long run a more comprehensive sustainable groundwater management policy, with strong institutional support and involvement of all stakeholders, is needed.     

Improving the Representation of the Nocturnal Near-Neutral Surface Layer in the Urban Environment with a Mesoscale Atmospheric Model

A new approach to improve the representation of surface processes in the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model associated with the exchanges between the urban canopy and the atmosphere is presented. Effects of the urban canopy on the evolution of surface-layer wind, temperature, moisture, and turbulence are directly parametrized in order to allow realistic interactions between the canopy elements (i.e., roofs, roads, and walls) and the atmosphere at GEM’s multiple vertical levels that are positioned inside the canopy. Surface energy budgets as implemented in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) scheme have been used to determine temperatures of the urban canopy elements for the proposed multilayer scheme. Performance of the multilayer scheme is compared against standard implementations of the TEB scheme for one nighttime intensive observation period of the Joint Urban 2003 experiment held in Oklahoma City, USA. Although the new approach is found to have a negligible impact on urban surface-layer wind profiles, it improves the prediction of near-neutral nocturnal profiles of potential temperature close to the surface. The urban heat island effect is simulated with a better accuracy by the multilayer approach. The horizontal temperature gradient across the central business district of the city along the direction of flow is also reasonably well captured by the proposed scheme.     

Reconstruction of the variability of the southwest monsoon during the past 3 ka,from the continental margin of the southeastern Arabian Sea

From temporal variation in δ¹⁸O in Globigerinoides ruber and G. sacculifer and geochemical indices of weathering/erosion (chemical index of alteration, Al and Ti), we infer rapid southwest monsoon (SWM) deterioration with dwindling fluvial and detrital fluxes at ca. 450–650, 1000 and 1800–2200 cal. a BP during the late Holocene. We have evaluated the role of solar influx (reconstructed) and high‐latitude climate variability (archived in GRIP and GISP‐2 cores) on SWM precipitation. Broadly, our δ¹⁸O climate reconstruction is concordant with GRIP and GISP‐2, and supports a teleconnection through atmospheric connection between the SWM and the North Atlantic climate – albeit temporal extents of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period from high latitude are not entirely coeval. Moreover, there is a humid climate and enhanced precipitation during the terminal stages of the Little Ice Age. The medieval warming (ca. AD 800–1300) is not synchronous either, and is punctuated by an arid event centred at 1000 a BP. Although the delineation of the specific influence of solar influx on SWM precipitation is elusive, we surmise that SWM precipitation is a complex phenomenon and local orography along southwestern India may have a role on the entrapment of moisture from the southwest trade winds, when these hit land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on mechanochemical effect of silica for short grinding period

Silica was ground in an oscillating mill at various grinding period to study the mechanochemical effect in fine grinding process. The ground particles exhibited massive size reduction where the volume moment diameter of 5.56 μm was reached within 600 s. Aggregation of fine particles was very pronounced when it was ground for 600 s due to high surface energy. Aggregation of fine particles caused the ground particles to exhibit poly-modal particle size distribution. Line broadening and reduction of diffractogram peak intensity were observed. Amorphization rate up to 16.9% was exhibited by the particle ground for 600 s. Preferential breakage of plane was observed where (101) and (111) was easily distorted compared to (110) and (200). Rapid reduction of crystallite size was observed at early stage of grinding until it reached a plateau at 5 nm at 600 s whilst the change in lattice strain was 0.5%.