A verification of spatio-temporal monsoon rainfall variability across Indian region using NWP model output

Evaluation of weather forecasting systems and assessment of existing verification procedures are essential to achieve desirable seamless rainfall prediction. Prediction of wet and dry spells is quite useful in agriculture and hydrology but very few attempts have been made so far to resolve the issue using numerical model output. Performance of five state-of-the-art global atmospheric general circulation models and their ensemble mean has been examined in predicting the parameters of wet and dry spells (WSs/DSs) during monsoon period of 2008–2011 over seven subzones of the Indian region. The number of WSs across the region is found to be underestimated, while total duration and rainfall amount of WSs (DSs) overestimated (underestimated). Start of the first WS is late and ends of the last WS early in the model forecast. More uncertainty is noticed in the prediction of DS rainfall and its duration than that of the WS. The percentage area of India under wet conditions (rainfall amount over each grid is more than its daily mean monsoon rainfall) and rainwater over the wet area is overestimated by about 59 and 32 %, respectively, in all models.     

An atmospheric instability derived with MODIS profile using real-time direct broadcast data over the Indian region

In this study, assessing the atmospheric instability, a new index, named here as MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) profile index (MPI), has been statistically computed using temperature and moisture profile data from the real-time direct broadcast receiving systems installed at three places of India Meteorological Department. The training dataset has been prepared using MODIS temperature and moisture profile from the Aqua and Terra satellites over the Indian region for clear and convective weather conditions during the period of March to June 2011. The MPI values are produced at 5?×?5?km pixel resolution when at least 6 out of 9 FOVs from MODIS granules are found cloud free. If more than 3 FOVs are cloudy, the MPI has not been computed. The formulation of MPI and its comparison have been examined with well-established traditionally used K index, Lifted Index and total totals index derived from radiosonde profiles of temperature, pressure and humidity. It has been observed that in most of the cases, MPI has well correlated with those derived from ground truth observations. Therefore, spatially interpolated MPI can be utilized as an indicator for regional and location-specific forecast over the areas where radiosonde data are not available. The results also indicated that MPI can be used as a sensitive measure in very early stages of instability developments such as thunderstorm and rainfall because no other single stability index can provide a distinct threshold value for these events. Therefore, a single MPI value at a certain threshold can be treated as a stability index instead of other available indices. It is also being proposed that the inclusion of MPI as a stability parameter in physical or numerical modeling can improve accurate local severe storm predictions as a useful predictor and can also be used as diagnostic tools. The MPI can make a useful simulation using entire temperature and moisture profile data for the assessment of instability significantly to severe weather forecasting since other instability indices are often derived from a fixed pressure level quantity of vertical profile parameters.     

Geomorphology and Petroleum Prospects of Cauvery Basin,Tamilnadu, Based on Interpretation of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS) Data

Geomorphological studies of the Cauvery basin, Tamilnadu were carried out using IRS images with special emphasis on identification of zones of hydrocarbon occurrences. The basin exhibits landforms of fluvial and fluvio-marine plains. Two major trends of lineaments and 15 circular anomalies have been identified. The NW-SE trend appears to be younger and might have played an important role in migration and entrapment of hydrocarbons. Six circular anomalies are associated with known oil/gas wells. The study has identified probable zones of hydrocarbon occurrences.     

Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok,India

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.     

Comprehensive test of different cumulus parameterization schemes for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon

Summary The global spectral model of NCMRWF at T80 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels has been integrated for the summer season (July) using different cumulus parameterization schemes namely, the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme (SAS), the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Scheme (RAS), and the Kuo-type cumulus parameterization scheme (KUO). The results have been compared with mean analysis of the operational NCMRWF model (ANA) and other available observations. Results indicate that, while the global distributions of basic fields such as the wind, temperature and moisture are fairly well simulated by all the three schemes, there are many differences seen in the simulation of the typical features of the Indian summer monsoon. The strength of the Low Level Westerly Jet (LLWJ), the Cross Equatorial Flow (CEF), and the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) are better simulated by RAS and SAS as compared to ANA than the KUO scheme. RAS and SAS produce strong rising motion owing to strong intensity of convection produced by these two schemes. This in turn produces stronger Hadley cell by RAS and SAS than compared to the KUO scheme. Simulation of the 200 mb velocity potential and divergent wind by RAS and SAS produced two prominent centers, one in the Bay of Bengal and another in the Western Pacific, which correspond to the intense latent heating by cumulus convection during the active monsoon phase. The velocity potential and divergent winds were weaker in KUO, than compared to RAS and SAS. The simulation of OLR is improved by RAS as compared to observations. The cold bias produced by KUO at 200 mb is reduced by RAS and is substantially improved by SAS. Study of observed and simulated rainfall indicated that RAS and SAS produced better distribution of precipitation over the Western Ghat Mountains and the Arakan coast, where deep cumulus convection is produced due to orographic forcing of the warm moist air. The KUO scheme underestimated the rainfall over these two regions, but produced slightly better distribution of rainfall over the northwest and central India, where the intensity of convection is relatively weaker. Evaluation of overall dynamics, thermal structure and rainfall indicates that in general, SAS is able to provide relatively better results compared to other two schemes. Received October 3, 2000/Revised December 5, 2000     

The retention of ammonia and sulfur dioxide during riming of ice particles and dendritic snow flakes: laboratory experiments in the Mainz vertical wind tunnel

Laboratory experiments were carried out in the Mainz vertical wind tunnel to determine the retention of the trace gases ammonia and sulfur dioxide dissolved in supercooled cloud droplets during riming. The conditions during riming were similar to the ones in atmospheric mixed phase clouds: temperatures from ?18 °C to ?5 °C, liquid water contents between 1 and 1.5 g m^?3, liquid drop radii between 10 and 20 μm, liquid phase concentrations from 1 to 22 mg/l. As collectors, floating ice particles and snow flakes with diameters between 6 mm and 1.5 cm were used. After riming the retention coefficients, i.e. the fractions of the species which remained in the ice phase after freezing were determined. Retention coefficients lying between 0.1 and 1.0 were measured depending on the solubility and dissociation of the trace gas, liquid phase concentration, ambient air temperature, and shape of rimed collector. This can be explained from the chemists’ point of view by the effective Henry’s law constant of the species and physically with the rate of latent heat removal from the rimed collector during freezing. Parameterizations derived from the different experimental cases describe the retention coefficients as a function of temperature. In general, an average retention of ammonia of 92?±?21 % was determined independently of liquid phase concentration while mean values for sulfur dioxide were 53?±?10 % at low liquid phase concentrations and 29?±?7 % at high liquid phase concentrations.     

Asymmetric impact of rainfall on India’s food grain production: evidence from quantile autoregressive distributed lag model

This study used a quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model to capture asymmetric impact of rainfall on food production in India. It was found that the coefficient corresponding to the rainfall in the QARDL increased till the 75th quantile and started decreasing thereafter, though it remained in the positive territory. Another interesting finding is that at the 90th quantile and above the coefficients of rainfall though remained positive was not statistically significant and therefore, the benefit of high rainfall on crop production was not conclusive. However, the impact of other determinants, such as fertilizer and pesticide consumption, is quite uniform over the whole range of the distribution of food grain production.     

Performance testing of selected automated coastline detection techniques applied on multispectral satellite imageries

Coastline detection has been of major interest for environmentalists and many methods have been introduced to detect coastline automatically. Remote Sensing techniques are the most promising ones to deliver a satisfactory result in this regard. In our study, the objective was to retrieve performance level of certain image processing techniques vigorously used for the purpose to delineate coastline automatically and they were tested against two images acquired almost on the same period by LISS III and LANDSAT ETM+ sensors. The algorithms used in the study are Water Index, NDVI, Complex Band Ratio, ISODATA, Thresholding, ISH Transfirmation techniques. Accuracy of the shoreline detection by classifying the image in land and water has been tried to be estimated in three ways, firstly with comparison to the visually interpreted high resolution google earth image, secondly field collected GCP data of reference points of classes and thirdly the raw image itself. But problem in temporal disparity caused the constraint doing accuracy assessment from the first two reference data and maps along the coast. As a whole although four techniques among six, show satisfactory results namely density slicing, ISODATA classification, Water Index and ISH transformation technique, in the case of LISS-III and ETM+, Water Index (with kappa value being 0.95 for LISS-III and 0.97 for ETM+) and Intensity-Hue-Saturation transformation techniques give better performance. Sensor to sensor variation might have introduced certain differences in shoreline detection in images of same season with similar tidal influence.     

Ptygmatic structures: an analysis and review

Buckling of an isolated elastic-plastic layer embedded in a Newtonian viscous matrix has been studied and the generation of ptygmatic folding leading ultimately to clod and fragmentation at the crests as well as along the limbs has been discussed. The cause of formation of some of the uncommon ptygmatic structures has also been evaluated along with a review of the different postulates.

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Zusammenfassung Im Experiment wird die Aufwölbung einer isolierten, elastisch-plastisch Lage in einer viscosen Newton'schen Matrix simuliert. Es entstehen hierbei ptygmatische Falten, die im Endstadium sowohl in den Scheiteln als auch auf den Flanken zerscheren und zerbrechen. Es kann dabei auch die Entstehung ungewöhnlicher ptygmatischer Strukturen studiert werden.

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Résumé Le gondolement d'une couche de plastique élastique enrobée dans une matrice visqueuse newtonienne montre que la formation de plis ptygmatiques conduit finalement à des loupes et des cassures dans les charnières comme aussi le long des flancs. La cause de la formation de certaines structures ptygmatiques a été également considérée sur la base des différents postulats.

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- Newton'a. , c . .

     

Radiocarbon evidence of paleo-recharge (pre-Saraswati period) of potential deep aquifer in Thar desert

The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), India, embarked upon exploration and exploitation of deep groundwater under the project named as “Saraswati” in arid Thar desert, Rajasthan, with a societal mission of providing water to the local people and cattle. A 555 m deep well drilled by the ONGC near Jaisalmer town in 2006 encountered a potential aquifer at a depth of 450–500 m. Radiocarbon dating of this well water indicated paleorecharge to be >40,000 yr BP (uncorrected) (Before Present with respect to 1950 AD), while the medium depth (∼200 m) well waters around that area showed an age range of ∼9,000 to 17,000 yr BP (uncorrected). These waters represent pre-Saraswati era recharge, because the mighty Saraswati flowed in this region between 7000–4000 yr BP. The stable isotope (δD and δ¹⁸O) and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) data of these waters clearly indicated absence of communication between the two aquifers (deep and medium depth). However, the extension of this deep aquifer needs to be determined.