Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Modelling ice conditions in the easternmost Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea

To model ice conditions in the eastern Gulf of Finland, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is coupled with the advanced sea-ice model HELMI (Haapala et al., 2005). To test the model in extreme situations, the ice pattern in the eastern Gulf of Finland was simulated for a mild ice winter (2007–2008) and for a moderate one (2003–2004). The reference runs were performed on the assumption that the ice in the model domain is fast ice if the sea depth is less than 10 m. Using this assumption, the ice thickness averaged over the Neva Bay (the easternmost part of the Gulf of Finland) is overestimated by the model for almost the entire wintertime in the mild winter and during the ice formation and melting periods in the moderate winter, as compared with the thickness reported in ice charts.     

Lithospheric thickness beneath the southern Kenya Rift: implications from basalt geochemistry

Geochemical data are reported for samples from the flanks and floor of the southern Kenya Rift Valley in the Lake Magadi area, and from two central volcanoes located within the rift valley. Rift lavas include samples of Singaraini and Ol Tepesi basalts on the eastern flank, Kirikiti basalts from the western flank, and plateau trachytes from the rift valley floor. Central volcano samples are from Ol Esayeiti and Lenderut located on the eastern flank. The rift basalts are mildly ne-normative, moderately evolved (Mg#=0.39-0.62) alkali basalts and show an overall range in differentiation. Incompatible trace element abundances are moderately elevated (Nb=17-51; Zr=93-274; La=17-55 ppm) and show strongly coherent variations and constant inter-element ratios (e.g. Zr/Nb=4.2-5.5; Nb/Ta=17.5ǂ.4; (La/Sm)_n=7.3ǃ.1); isotope ratios are restricted in range (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70393-0.70436; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd=0.51272-0.51280; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=19.87-19.92; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.68-15.70; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=39.56-39.71). Central volcano lavas are more alkaline in character and include basanite (Ol Esayeiti; Mg# >60) and hawaiite to benmoreite (Lenderut; Mg#=0.48-0.38). Incompatible element ratio are similar to those of the rift basalts, although the chondrite normalised REE patterns are steeper (La/Sm)_n=17.4ǃ.2). ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70358, 0.70391), ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51280, 0.51267), ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (19.96,20.17), ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (15.66,15.76) and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb (39.80,40.00) ratios of Ol Esayeiti basanites are similar to the rift basalts, whereas the Lenderut lavas have unusually low¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd (0.512388-0.512453) ratios for their ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr (0.70370-0.70481) ratios, and distinctly less radiogenic and variable Pb isotope compositions (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=17.93-19.01; ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.43-15.58; ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=37.91-39.14). An integrated model is developed in which the geochemical signature of the lavas is attributed to variable degrees of melting to depths within the garnet stability field, and in the presence of residual amphibole. The stability fields of these phases in P-T space indicates that the lavas must have formed within the sub-continental lithosphere rather than within the underlying ambient asthenosphere or a rising mantle plume. The subcontinental lithospheric mantle must therefore extend to a depth of at least 75 km beneath the Lake Magadi area, which contrasts with recent gravity models for the area, which infer that lithospheric mantle is absent beneath this section of the southern Kenya Rift.     

Spatially distributed modelling of soil erosion and sediment yield at regional scales in Spain

Initiated by the need to quantify erosion rates and the impacts of global changes on erosion, several attempts have been made to apply erosion models at regional scales. However, these models have often been directed towards on-site soil erosion estimates, emphasising sheet and rill erosion processes, and disregarding gully erosion, channel erosion and sediment transport. These models are therefore of limited use for the assessment of sediment yield, off-site impacts of erosion, and for the development of environmental management to control these impacts at regional scale. This study analyses and compares three spatially distributed models for the prediction of soil erosion and/or sediment yield at regional scales: the WATEM-SEDEM model that is based on the empirical Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) in combination with a sediment transport equation, the physics-based Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment model (PESERA), and a newly developed Spatially Distributed Scoring model (SPADS). The three models were applied to 61 Spanish drainage basins and model predictions were evaluated against data on measured reservoir sedimentation rates. Global data sets on land use, climate, elevation and soil characteristics were used as model input for WATEM-SEDEM and SPADS, whereas published soil erosion estimates of PESERA at 1 km² resolution were used directly. SPADS and WATEM-SEDEM provided best results after separate calibration for basins with a Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) higher than 5% and those with an SDR lower than 5%. In this way, SPADS explained 67% of variation in sediment yield, while WATEM-SEDEM explained 48% of the variation. PESERA represents a promising alternative to the use of empirical models at the regional scale as it can be applied to very diverse environments with little calibration. However, PESERA provides soil erosion rates and not sediment yield estimates. For most basins PESERA soil erosion rates vary between fifty and close to zero percent of total sediment yield. Two major factors may explain this discrepancy between modelled soil erosion rates and measured sediment yield. First, it may be that PESERA underestimates soil erosion under Mediterranean conditions, although PESERA soil erosion rates are of the same order of magnitude as erosion rates measured in erosion plot studies. Second, gully-, river channel erosion and sediment transport processes may be much more important than sheet- and rill erosion for regional scale sediment yield in these environments. These issues therefore require further attention in future model development. Although spatially lumped models provide better predictions of sediment yield at the basin scale, and while validation of the predicted spatial patterns of sources and sinks of sediment requires further research, spatially distributed models are expected to be of value to support management decisions regarding the assessment of on-site and off-site impacts of erosion at the regional scale.     

Stardust impact analogs: Resolving pre‐ and postimpact mineralogy in Stardust Al foils

Abstract– The grains returned by NASA’s Stardust mission from comet 81P/Wild 2 represent a valuable sample set that is significantly advancing our understanding of small solar system bodies. However, the grains were captured via impact at ～6.1 km s^?1 and have experienced pressures and temperatures that caused alteration. To ensure correct interpretations of comet 81P/Wild 2 mineralogy, and therefore preaccretional or parent body processes, an understanding of the effects of capture is required. Using a two‐stage light‐gas gun, we recreated Stardust encounter conditions and generated a series of impact analogs for a range of minerals of cometary relevance into flight spare Al foils. Through analyses of both preimpact projectiles and postimpact analogs by transmission electron microscopy, we explore the impact processes occurring during capture and distinguish between those materials inherent to the impactor and those that are the product of capture. We review existing and present additional data on olivine, diopside, pyrrhotite, and pentlandite. We find that surviving crystalline material is observed in most single grain impactor residues. However, none is found in that of a relatively monodisperse aggregate. A variety of impact‐generated components are observed in all samples. Al incorporation into melt‐derived phases allows differentiation between melt and shock‐induced phases. In single grain impactor residues, impact‐generated phases largely retain original (nonvolatile) major element ratios. We conclude that both surviving and impact‐generated phases in residues of single grain impactors provide valuable information regarding the mineralogy of the impacting grain whilst further studies are required to fully understand aggregate impacts and the role of subgrain interactions during impact.     

Seismic scattering and shallow structure of the moon in oceanus procellarum

Long, reverberating trains of seismic waves produced by impacts and moonquakes may be interpreted in terms of scattering in a surface layer overlying a non-scattering elastic medium. Model seismic experiments are used to qualitatively demonstrate the correctness of the interpretation. Three types of seismograms are found, near impact, far impact and moonquake. Only near impact and moonquake seismograms contain independent information. Details are given in the paper of the modelling of the scattering processes by the theory of diffusion.Interpretation of moonquake and artificial impact seismograms in two frequency bands from the Apollo 12 site indicates that the scattering layer is 25 km thick, with a Q of 5000. The mean distance between scatterers is approximately 5 km at 25 km depth and approximately 2 km at 14 km depth; the density of scatterers appears to be high near the surface, decreasing with depth. This may indicate that the scatterers are associated with cratering, or are cracks that anneal with depth. Most of the scattered energy is in the form of scattered surface waves.Communication presented at the Lunar Science Institute Conference on Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration of the Moon and Planets, January 10–12, 1973.     

Trace element geochemistry of CR chondrite metal

We report trace element analyses by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) of metal grains from nine different CR chondrites, distinguishing grains from chondrule interior (“interior grains”), chondrule surficial shells (“margin grains”), and the matrix (“isolated grains”). Save for a few anomalous grains, Ni‐normalized trace element patterns are similar for all three petrographic settings, with largely unfractionated refractory siderophile elements and depleted volatile Au, Cu, Ag, S. All three types of grains are interpreted to derive from a common precursor approximated by the least‐melted, fine‐grained objects in CR chondrites. This also excludes recondensation of metal vapor as the origin of the bulk of margin grains. The metal precursors were presumably formed by incomplete condensation, with evidence for high‐temperature isolation of refractory platinum‐group‐element (PGE)‐rich condensates before mixing with lower temperature PGE‐depleted condensates. The rounded shape of the Ni‐rich, interior grains shows that they were molten and that they equilibrated with silicates upon slow cooling (1–100 K h^?1), largely by oxidation/evaporation of Fe, hence their high Pd content, for example. We propose that Ni‐poorer, amoeboid margin grains, often included in the pyroxene‐rich periphery common to type I chondrules, result from less intense processing of a rim accreted onto the chondrule subsequent to the melting event recorded by the interior grains. This means either that there were two separate heating events, which formed olivine/interior grains and pyroxene/margin grains, respectively, between which dust was accreted around the chondrule, or that there was a single high‐temperature event, of which the chondrule margin records a late “quenching phase,” in which case dust accreted onto chondrules while they were molten. In the latter case, high dust concentrations in the chondrule‐forming region (at least three orders of magnitude above minimum mass solar nebula models) are indicated.     

A petrological,mineralogical, and chemical analysis of the lunar mare basalt meteorite LaPaz Icefield 02205, 02224, and 02226

Abstract— LaPaz Icefield (LAP) 02205, 02226, and 02224 are paired stones of a crystalline basaltic lunar meteorite with a low‐Ti (3.21–3.43% TiO₂) low‐Al (9.93–10.45% Al₂O₃), and low‐K (0.11–0.12% K₂O) composition. They consist mainly of zoned pyroxene and plagioclase grains, with minor ilmenite, spinel, and mesostasis regions. Large, possibly xenocrystic, forsteritic olivine grains (<3% by mode) contain small trapped multiphase melt inclusions. Accessory mineral and mesostasis composition shows that the samples have experienced residual melt crystallization with silica oversaturation and late‐stage liquid immiscibility. Our section of LAP 02224 has a vesicular fusion crust, implying that it was at one time located sufficiently close to the lunar surface environment to have accumulated solar‐wind‐implanted gases. The stones have a comparable major element composition and petrography to low‐Ti, low‐Al basalts collected at the Apollos 12 and 15 landing sites. However, the LAP stones also have an enriched REE bulk composition and are more ferroan (Mg numbers in the range of 31 to 35) than similar Apollo samples, suggesting that they represent members of a previously unsampled fractionated mare basalt suite that crystallized from a relatively evolved lunar melt.     

On the peculiarities in the rotational frequency evolution of isolated neutron stars

The measurements of pulsar frequency second derivatives have shown that they are 10²−10⁶ times larger than expected for standard pulsar spin-down law, and are even negative for about half of pulsars. We explain these paradoxical results on the basis of the statistical analysis of the rotational parameters ν, and of the subset of 295 pulsars taken mostly from the ATNF database. We have found a strong correlation between and for both and , as well as between ν and . We interpret these dependencies as evolutionary ones due to being nearly proportional to the pulsars’ age. The derived statistical relations as well as “anomalous” values of are well described by assuming the long-time variations of the spin-down rate. The pulsar frequency evolution, therefore, consists of secular change of ν _ev(t), and according to the power law with n≈5, the irregularities, observed within a timespan as a timing noise, and the variations on the timescale larger than that—several decades. This work has been supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant No 04-02-17555), Russian Academy of Sciences (program “Evolution of Stars and Galaxies”), and by the Russian Science Support Foundation. The authors would also like to thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments.     

Integrating lysimeter drainage and eddy covariance flux measurements in a groundwater recharge model

Abstract

Field-scale water balance is difficult to characterize because controls exerted by soils and vegetation are mostly inferred from local-scale measurements with relatively small support volumes. Eddy covariance flux and lysimeters have been used to infer and evaluate field-scale water balances because they have larger footprint areas than local soil moisture measurements. This study quantifies heterogeneity of soil deep drainage (D) in four 12.5-m² repacked lysimeters, compares evapotranspiration from eddy covariance (ET_EC) and mass balance residuals of lysimeters (ETwb_Lys), and models D to estimate groundwater recharge. Variation in measured D was attributed to redirection of snowmelt infiltration and differences in lysimeter hydraulic properties caused by surface soil treatment. During the growing seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, ETwb_Lys (278, 289 and 269 mm, respectively) was in good agreement with ET_EC (298, 301 and 335 mm). Annual recharge estimated from modelled D was 486, 624 and 613 mm for three calendar years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. In summary, lysimeter D and ET_EC can be integrated to estimate and model groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis